Giants at Niners a long look.

 

Giants are the one stand out team in the playoffs so far... the 49ers needed a last minute drive to pull out a victory over the Saints, who also gave them several turnovers... the Giants dominated the Falcons at home and the Packers on the road... their pass rush is controlling every game they play, and they have without question the best WRs in the playoffs, with a hot QB throwing to them, and a ground and pound running game... they fit every definition of a post-season winner you will find, historically...

they are the team to beat, in my opinion...

dig away.  yeah i'm not real interested.  maybe u can figure something out with all this deep knowledge you're gaining.

ok bud I will.  

Alright another factor that might play into this game is the aspect of revenge.  The Giants lost a very close game to San Francisco already this year.  I think this might be good timing for the Giants to say hey we got you back but in the playoffs where it really counts.  I am not really high on this idea but I do see a psychological angle here.  The Niners will want to prove that they are elite and can do it again.

The weather is another factor people have been discussing about this game.  The forecast shows rain the next couple of days and then the possibility of rain on game day.  I don't see either team gaining much of an advantage if the playing conditions are sloppy.  Either team might be more prone to turnovers in those kinds of conditions.  If anything the Giants passing attack might be limited in such conditions.  Considering the game is on grass the Forty Niners have done well all year long.  The Giants are 3-2 ATS this year.   Take it for what you think it's worth.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/san-francisco-ca/94103/daily-weather-forecast/347629

here are a couple of interesting articles about the revenge factor and the niners wanting to prove themselves.

https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/giants/sf-forty-niners-paint-target-eli-manning-ny-giants-article-1.1007321

https://www.nypost.com/p/sports/giants/one_more_time_vengeance_shall_be_ZCI0UiN9frJsdQalREc0aL?CMP=OTC-rss&FEEDNAME=

this is going to be the deciding factor in this game... The 9ers play a field position type game with ball control and working the clock... Lee is great at flipping the field position and allowing the defense to stop teams and giving the offense shorter drives to kick FG for Akers if they can't get a TD... 9ers have been doing this all year and the formula has paid off big...

Right now my lean is the niners at -2.5.  this is not a definite bet.  I see a 23-20 game right here.  That is what i have in mind so far.  line keeps dropping on the over under down to 42 at most places.  I am leaning over as well.

giants 27 niners 14.

One question billsneedhelp if the Niners appear to have such large advantage at a micro level like you described why would the spread be only -2.5?  You would figure the spread would be larger perhaps if they had all of those advantages.  Or do you think the spread is giving Giants backers and bettors in general all the more reason to jump on the G-Men and take the points without doing their homework first?  I agree with some of your list but not all of it.  Enlighten us please.
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NYG are no fluke.  They are hot.  They are healthy.  They won three road playoff games in 2007.  They have won a superbowl.  They are a major market team compared to SF (8 million population VS under a million population).  They are a proven team while SF's fame (for beating NO) lasted less than 24 hours.  SF is still being considered by many as a LUCK team.  The odds makers setup a line that will draw equall action on both sides.  Team getting -3 on the road is generally considered evenly matched to the home team.  Recall the muntra "to be the man, you have got to beat the man".  In public precption, NYG are the MAN rightnow by beating GB.  While this game could go either way, I am with you and leaning towards SF winning this game.  I agree with most of what Billsneedhelp posted, except that momentum is equall, and the coaching edge HAS TO BE GIVEN TO NYG based upon experience alone.

Remember the Giants in '07 beating the playoff experienced favre lead Packers and the Brady lead Patriots.  Experience is OVERRATED.  The Niners are the Giants of '07.  People are confusing 2011 Giants with the 2007 Giants when it is the Niners who are more like that 2007 team IMO.

Giants vs SanFran will be close,i agree with PTB when he posts that the Giants are coming in hot and time after time in years past it's vey difficult to slow down a rolling team,San francisco remind me alot of Denver in that there a good team but have over achieved all year and although they could keep it goin versus NY, my bet is they take a step back here and the more experienced and hotter team wins the close game. Giants by 7.

I don't think you are missing anything, however let me point out three things...
One, Defensive Line goes to Giants.
Two RB is closer to even.
Three and MOST important...QB could be the deciding factor and NOT just another stat out of 15 other stats. It could be the one that decides the outcome.
I don't care how good the rest of your team plays, if Smith throws 2 INT's and Eli none, that lone can decide the game.

GL...Giants win by 6

bleacherreport.com/articles/1025225-giants-vs-packers

Red Zone and extras....

I know i am posting a lot of links to articles but i like to get different opinions by different writers as well as posters on this site.  One interesting stat i just saw on ESPN was the Giants are 4-0 conference final playoff matches followed closely by the Pats who are 6-1.  This is based off of teams who have played a minimum of three conference final games.  Anyway, red zone offense is something that is a huge factor in any game.  The Niners showed last week that they could come up with some big plays in the clutch.  Will it happen again?  Or will they return to the same team they had been during the regular season who struggled in the red zone?

Giants ranked ninth in red zone offense and niners ranked 29th. obviously these numbers speak for themselves as the giants have the clear advantage in red zone offense by ranking.  On the other hand, the Giants have had success scoring in the red zone using the run game.  This in my opinion will become a problem against the Niners.  San Fran has only given up three rushing td's and has the best run defense.  I also expect Justin and Aldon Smith to create havoc and get to Manning.  The Giants offensive line has improved since their first meeting but it is not great at all.  I give the Giants a slight edge in red zone offense only because they have a better passing attack.  Hakeem Nicks has been lights out lately, Victor Cruz is solid, and Manningham has finally come back to life.  Jake Ballard appears to be somewhat hobbled lately but still can make some important catches.  The Niners receivers don't pose quite a threat and I expect that Vernon Davis will receive a lot of attention and see plenty of bracket coverage after last weeks performance.  San Francisco will need to rely on players like Crabtree and the potent run and pass catching attack of Gore and Hunter.  The Giants will also need to get some form of run game going.  I see Bradshaw and Jacobs being stuffed at the line unless they use the screen plays or manage to pick up better than three yards per carry.  Watch out if the Giants run game gets going at all the play action game will soon follow.  I am sure the Niners will be prepared for that also and Bradshaw and Jacobs haven't given me reason to believe anything extraordinary it will happen this week.

"New York’s run game has been outstanding in the red zone, but no red-zone defense is better against the run than the 49ers, who allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season (two of them in their Week 17 win at St. Louis)."

"They held New Orleans to just 37 yards on the ground."

Note: Pierre Thomas was knocked out of the game and Sproles hurt the Niners with his pass catching ability and speed.  Perhaps Bradshaw and Jacobs (could) wake up after a miserable year of running the ball.  This would be the time and the place for them to come alive although I don't see it happening.  Gore will be tough to contain but the Giants have the defensive front four to put the pressure on Alex Smith to make them rely too much on the run.  Thoughts>>?

How can you compare or say SF reminds you of Denver??There is no comparision SF is way better than the Broncos and are 5-1 vs playoff teams!!

I myself can not compare the Niners to Denver either.

I still don't see how the giants are so much hotter than the niners? They both have won four in a row, I think ppl are buying into that way too much

Also, if the giants were the team to beat here, they would be laying the 2.5, Vegas thinks and knows it will be a close one, look at last yr, gb was on the road, everyone knew they were the team to beat and they layed 4.5 at chi, why aren't the giants favored in this one? Maybe its because Vegas knows the niners are legitimately and ppl will be pounding away on the giants thinking they have a gift with the 2.5

GSW on the page before i discuss and briefly question the line for this game.  I wonder if the line is both tempting Giants backers and also at the same time demonstrating that the game "ought" to be close.  The first time these teams played this year it was a great game and the Niners came out on top.  Will they be able to do that again against a Giants team that has improved from that point in the season and with a good playoff track record?  With a line set at -2.5 it is a set up to get action on both sides in my opinion.  Niners are at home, they have a good team, they have played solid all year and have a solid defense.  The line seems perfect for a game like this.  I don't think the Giants are the team to beat necessarily.  I think this is an even match up for the most part.  Others might disagree but getting 2.5 to me isn't a gift that is why I am considering playing the Niners in this one.

Turnovers are a huge part of football and they can be momentum and game changers.  San Fran has the best turnover margin at +1.9 in the league.  The Giants are ranked fifth with a .6 turnover margin.  The edge goes to San Fran here but will they make the most of their turnovers in this game?  San Fran has an average 2.5 takeaways per game and the Giants 1.9.  San Fran throws very few ints, mostly due to their style of play, but it is an impressive .3 a game.  Smith is very effective and cautious in his QB style.  The Giants have an average of .9 a game.  So you can count on Eli throwing at least one int in this game.  The niners and giants are both at .4 fumbles lost per game.  The Niners force about 1,1 lost fumbles a game and the Giants .8.  The 49ers have a .6 rate of giveaways per game while the Giants have a 1.4 rate.  Opponents have thrown 1.5 interception a game agianst the niner and 1.2 against the G-Men. NYG 21 ints 13 forced fumbles and 54 sacks including regular and post season.  SF 25 ints 22 forced fumbles and 45 sacks including last weeks game against the Saints.  Note I might be a little off on the forced fumble numbers but not by much.  Anyway, the turnover battle leans towards the Niners but the Giants aren't slouches in that area.  If anything they are bringing it right now.  Edge Niners but not by much at this point in the season.

Also, it is significant to view how well Eli and Smith have played this year. 
Postseason

Passing Statistics
Player	Att	Comp	Yds	Comp %	Yds/Att	TD	TD %	INT	INT %	Long	Sck	Sack/Lost	Rating
Alex Smith	42	24	299	57.1	7.1	3	7.1	0	0.0	49	4	35	103.2

Alex Smith regular season Passing Statistics
Player	Att	Comp	Yds	Comp %	Yds/Att	TD	TD %	INT	INT %	Long	Sck	Sack/Lost	Rating
Alex Smith	445	273	3144	61.3	7.1	17	3.8	5	1.1	56	44	263	90.7

Postseason Passing Statistics
Player	Att	Comp	Yds	Comp %	Yds/Att	TD	TD %	INT	INT %	Long	Sck	Sack/Lost	Rating
Eli Manning	65	44	607	67.7	9.3	6	9.2	1	1.5	72	2	12	121.8