Giants at Niners a long look.

As you all know there are so many different factors that play into handicapping any sport.  I am not a professional but I really wanted to get down deep and look closely at this match up.  To often I get caught up in emotional reasoning and I do not take a close enough look at the many variables that add up to taking one side over another.  Anyway, the first important factor in this game comes down to experience.  This is a divisional finals game and the Giants have an edge when it comes to experience.  They have been here before and they know what type of pressure comes along with it.  I do not know how they will handle it this year but past indicators suggest they handle it well.  The 49ers on the other hand, present a team with limited playoff experience and it is hard to digest how they will handle coming off a huge fourth quarter win against the Saints last week.  Past events don't necessarily predict future results but history does tend to repeat itself.  Here is an interesting article. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1011424-nfl-playoff-predictions-why-eli-manning-new-york-giants-can-make-a-deep-run#/articles/1011424-nfl-playoff-predictions-why-eli-manning-new-york-giants-can-make-a-deep-run
A lot of players from the 2007 team remain of the Giants roster and they have the same coach.  Alex Smith and the majority of his team mates have not been in this spot before.  It will be interesting to see how they handle the pressure.
https://www.examiner.com/sports-in-san-francisco/san-francisco-49ers-face-giants-with-trip-to-superbowl-on-the-line

Does the fact that Jim Harbaugh is a rookie head coach, a possible budding star Alex Smith, and an inexperienced WR corps come into play in this game?  I think it does.

Experience edge to Giants but it doesn't mean everything.  There are so many more factors.  This is just the tip of the ice berg.  At first let's discuss the idea behind the importance of playoff experience.

I think they are both balanced teams & will be a close game.............the Giants had a clear advantage on defense vs the Packers & possibly on offense even tho the Pack were 15-1..............the Giants got healthy & hot at the right time..................

I agree I am no where close to done with this thread just wanted to generate discussion.  I as of right now have no idea what side I would take in this game.  I agree both teams are well balanced and both teams are hot right now.  But what about experience in big games?  Is it a real edge or not opinions and insight??

Prime, over the last day or so you seem to be slightly leaning toward the Giant side of this match up, or am I
wrong ???? 

San Francisco 49ers
NAME	STATUS	DATE
Delanie Walker, TE	Questionable	Jan 17
Comment: Walker (jaw) plans to suit up Sunday against the Giants, the San Jose Mercury News reports.
Frank Gore, RB	Probable	Jan 17
Comment: Though Gore appeared to injure his right leg on the 49ers' final drive this past Saturday, he said that he will be okay, San Jose Mercury News reports.
Delanie Walker, TE	Questionable	Jan 16
Comment: questionable
Delanie Walker, TE	Questionable	Jan 16
Comment: Walker (fractured jaw) hopes to receive medical clearance Monday to return to action, csnbayarea.com reports.
Ted Ginn, WR	Questionable	Jan 16
Comment: Ginn is questionable for the NFC Championship after sustaining a right knee injury in Saturday's win over the Saints, csnbayarea.com reports.
Ian Williams, DT	Inactive	Jan 14
Comment: inactive
Kyle Williams, WR	Probable	Jan 14
Comment: Williams (concussion) is active for Saturday's game against New Orleans.
Delanie Walker, TE	Inactive	Jan 14
Comment: Walker (jaw) is inactive for Saturday's game against New Orleans.
Ted Ginn, WR	Probable	Jan 14
Comment: Ginn (ankle) is active for Saturday's game against New Orleans

Chris Canty	DT	Prob Sun - Knee - 01/16/12	notesCanty left the AFC Divisional Round playoff game against the Packers on January 15th due to a knee injury. He is expected to be in the lineup for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the 49ers.	0-0	0-0
Victor Cruz	WR	Prob Sun - Quadricep - 01/16/12	notesCruz is nursing a quad injury but is expected to be in the lineup for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the 49ers.	0-0	0-0
Mark Herzlich	LB	Ques Sun - Ankle - 01/16/12	notesHerzlich has not played since spraining his ankle in Week 12 against the Saints. He remains questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the 49ers.	6-1	3-4
Da'Rel Scott	RB	Ques Sun - Knee - 01/16/12

Next of course you need to look at injuries.  One key injury could be to Ted Ginn Jr.  He is such an integral part of the 49ers special teams.  The niners need him on the field badly.  I will also be keeping a close eye on Canty although he seems fine as he is listed as probable.  By game time I expect Ginn Jr to play but will he be his normal speedy self??

I believe you are 100% correct on your first factor not only do the Giants have the experience edge in a big way because their QB has been here and done that as well but the emotional ties that so closely come into play I firmly believe are associated with experience as well.  People talk about emotional letdown after last week how the Giants beating the best in NFL will emotionally be a little down this week I don't buy it for a second.  Because of their experience having gone this path 4 years ago they know what's at stake and are better equipped at handling the emotions that come with advancing to this point.  If anything SF will have the emotional letdown after a thrilling end of the game drive to a win w/ their young cast. 

As far as injuries the Giants are as healthy as they have been all year which is a major factor in how far they have come so far.  Eli couldn't finish practice today because of a stomach bug which should be monitored but most likely a 24 hour thing and no big deal.  2 zip Giants...I like your thread so far!

Did the experience edge help the Saints?

What other terms can help the Giants win, hotter team right now, more motivated and in a must win situation.

what hurt the Saints was playing on the road plain and simple they would destroy either the Giants or SF in their building right now it's just the way it is in that place w/ their decided home field advantage.  I don't think experience was a factor at all in the SF/NO game it simply came down to Smith making a few plays in the end against an average defense and he did. 

As far as who's hotter team that's easy the Giants are hotter.  To get into who's more motivated is impossible to know.  As far as must win I feel that always goes to the older group that has been there before and their time is running out which is the Giants, Pats and Ravens. Ravens are in #1 must win situation  Pats #2 Giants #3 & SF #4 if you ask me. How many wins did SF have last year??  This is all new to them and a glad to be here we made it this far mentality can easily tagged to them.  Ask me who is in the SB right now next year I can easily see a Houston/ SF matchup.  Houston has the best talent on both sides of the ball in the league they are gonna be scary good next year w/ shaub back

San Francisco has taken on the Dog mentality all year.  Harbuagh has been preaching that no one thinks they can win.  The players probably never thought they would be favorites in the NFC Championship game.  I'll bet they come out a little flat and nervous.  The Giants have  TON of experience and Eli Manning has become a top 5 QB this year.  He has won is last 4 road playoff games so don't expect him to be off his game and nervous.  Alex Smith still has a lot to prove, winning 1 game doesn't do it. 

Run Defense- Advantage SF

I'll tell you this as I get the information as some type of monsoon rains forward: If the damn field is sloppy I like the Niners and Gore against a shitstorm for both. I won't talk about this game although i have studied it- and it goes t the Niners kicking game.

A monsoon....?...the giant offense just evtered the belly of the beast....

UNDER NOW!!!!

spot on billsneedhelp, love your analysis all around. SF 

Next, we have home field advantage.  This year in the playoffs teams playing at home are 7-1 straight up. Two home underdogs San Francisco and Denver were able to win.  Two road underdogs covered and that was the Giants over Green Bay and Houston over Baltimore.  So the home team has covered ATS 6 out of the 8 games played so far.  The Giants were the only road underdog to win on the road so far in the playoffs this season.

Here is a very cool link that describes a lot of information about past playoff appearances since 1976.  Note the home teams records straight up vs. teams that were 0-3 point favorites.  Also, note Home teams straight up, home teams vs spread, and home favorites vs spread.  https://www.goldsheet.com/nfl-football-story-jan8.php

I give the edge to San Francisco obviously because they are home favorites but I might be wary of taking the -2.5 based on historical results.  Feel free to discuss if you feel this is relevant or not?  Also, realize that the Giants for some reason have played well on the road for some reason.  They were 6-3 on the road this season including last weeks game at Green Bay and covered ATS those six out of nine games,  The niners boast a great home record this season including the playoffs at 8-1 covering in all games except one push against the Cowboys the only team they lost to at home. 

Head coaches
https://www.nfl.com/teams/coaches?coaType=head&team=NYG

Coughlin has an 8-7 playoff record with one superbowl championship
His road playoff record is 6-4 and if the Giants win Saturday he would tie Tom Landry's playoff road record of seven.  It looks like Coughlin gets his teams fired up for road battles.

https://www.nfl.com/teams/sanfrancisco49ers/coaches?coaType=head&team=SF

Harbaugh is new to this playoff picture.  He has proven this year he has what it takes to lead a team to a winning season.  His record stands merely 1-0 because it was his rookie playoff debut last week.  Talk about a close thrilling way to win your first playoff game.  Anyway, Harbaugh comes from a family with it's roots deeply embedded in football.  He also could very well win coach of the year.

I still give the head coaching edge to Couglin and the Giants coaching staff overall.  Feel free to disagree.

One question billsneedhelp if the Niners appear to have such large advantage at a micro level like you described why would the spread be only -2.5?  You would figure the spread would be larger perhaps if they had all of those advantages.  Or do you think the spread is giving Giants backers and bettors in general all the more reason to jump on the G-Men and take the points without doing their homework first?  I agree with some of your list but not all of it.  Enlighten us please.

correction if the Giants win sunday Couglin will have seven road playoff wins my bad.

One thing that is often overlooked is the kicking game of both teams
NYG

Lawrence Tynes

16

100

24

19

50

43

Punting

Player	G	Punts	Yds	Avg	Lg	TB	TB%	In20	In20%
Steve Weatherford	16	82	3735	45.5	62	6	7.3	25	30.5

San Fran

David Akers

16

166

52

44

55

34

34

Punting

Player	G	Punts	Yds	Avg	Lg	TB	TB%	In20	In20%
Andy Lee	16	78	3970	50.9	68	9	11.5	28	35.9

The kicking game leans toward an edge to the Niners and I would take Akers over Tynes any day of the week.  Akers obviously gets more attempts due to the Niners red zone struggles but Akers puts up the points and has solid percentages.  Lee too has better numbers than Weatherford.  Field position and field goals are important and San Fran would love to score touchdowns but having good field position, scoring points albeit 3 at a clip, and controlling time of possession could very well lead to a niners victory.

coughlin's playoff record is now 10-7 sigh.... correcting myself again.  anyway.  just putting information out there.  i still have no idea who to make a play on but still have plenty of time to decide.

Dude put your $ on the Giants.  Drop the microanalysis.  You can look at statistics 500 different ways.  You either got a feel for the game, or skip it.  The statistics aren't going to give you the answer.

I give the edge to San Francisco obviously because they are home favorites but I might be wary of taking the -2.5 based on historical results. Feel free to discuss if you feel this is relevant or not? Also, realize that the Giants for some reason have played well on the road for some reason. They were 6-3 on the road this season including last weeks game at Green Bay and covered ATS those six out of nine games, The niners boast a great home record this season including the playoffs at 8-1 covering in all games except one push against the Cowboys the only team they lost to at home.

 

The face Gmen are the most experience team in the playoffs with 23yrs of experience vs. the 9ers being the youngest at 4. Not to mention Coughlin vs. Harbaugh. I gotta give the old man another shot here, he seems to know what he's doing also....haha.

Oh...and Gmen eeeh 4-0 in playoffs...on road. The veterans guys are turning it up for the Gmen here. Gmen take down the 9ers imho. Both Harbaughs are packing for the island after this weekend.

 

hey i said i wasn't going to go with emotional reasoning.  I want to dig deeper.  If you don't want to read stats or articles or statistical analysis that is cool.  No one said you don't have to go with your gut.  I am just going to post information for myself and anyone who is interested.  and good luck with your wagers.  i have more to talk about if you don't feel like reading that's cool with me.