Quote Originally Posted by RedRyder:
Packers at Steelers
Here we have one of the hottest teams in the NFL, Green Bay, playing by far the coldest in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have lost five straight games and three of those losses came to bottom feeders KC, Oakland and Cleveland. No team in the NFL is playing any worse than the Steelers right now, while Green Bay is red hot, winners of five straight.
So knowing that, we look at the line and it opened at Pittsburgh -1. Despite 70 percent of the money coming in on Green Bay, the line has jumped as high as Pittsburgh -2.5 at some places.
On the match-up side of things the one area where Green Bay really struggles on offense is with speed rushers coming off the edge. While the Steelers don't have the defense they've had in the past, I believe their style of play is going to cause the Packers offense problems and create some turnovers in this game.
The Steelers hit rock bottom last week and there is never a better time to back a team than when they are at their lowest. We saw that in the Dallas/New Orleans game. Now the Steelers most likely aren't going to the postseason this year but I can't see this team lying down. I think they come out with one of their most spirited efforts of the season on Sunday. I expect to see this team flying all over the field.
And one last thing, with all the Steelers fans in the country, how many times do you see the other team getting close to 70 percent of the money? I can't ever recall seeing that. Everything I look at says that Pittsburgh is the best play on the board Sunday. Don't shoot your eye the week before Christmas and fall into the Packers trap. Good luck if you decide to play it.
Steelers -2 $500
About Me
My capping style is I take the few plays on the board that I feel have "fishy" lines set by the books and where the public is backing the obvious side. I then go through the match-ups to see which one of those plays has the best chance of cashing. I don't care how fishy a Rams/Colts line, I will not back the Rams in that spot because I believe if those two teams met 10 times, the Colts would blow them out 8-9 of those times. The odds just aren't with you. In other words, I use opening lines, public money and match-ups to try and take out as much of the guess work as possible and come up with what I believe is the strongest play on the board.
every sunday night i check the next week's line
last week i saw pitts -1, my first gut feeling was obvioulsy on steelers, still at home, its time to wake up
the opener was -1 and it moved to -2 , probably more money is on pittsburgh, not necessarily more bettors but more money,,,
i think this is just a pure gamble, books had to open -3 pittsburgh if pittsburgh are still to be trusted...
you might disagree, but linemaker usually are very smart guys, you can say there is more bettors on green bay even at +2
you seem you are on the right side of this match thinking you are not going with the public, i dont know but the real problem gambler will chase probably pittsburgh , come on they are due to win...
what ever you explain here, steelers are due, not only to win but to show their good football that they are capable,
you are just a bettor who want that pittsburgh finally bring their A game, but you are not the only one expecting this,
if they win , they win, you dont have to explain how it will happen
they just lost 5 straight, you are not the only waiting and expecting for this result...
win or lose, pittsburgh really have to improve all their game.
if green bay win, we will really fade the steelers...
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