Here's a post with a few stats I picked up from another site to make you feel a bit more comfortable with your plays.
play under - home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (minn.) - excellent passing team (>=7.3 pya) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 pya) after 8+ games, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games....
since 1983 the record for this system is....33-12....73.3%....
the average total posted in these games was....45.6....the average total scored in these games was....41.2....
here is a small writeup on the under 45(120) balt / indy....
in last week's game vs. the pats, the ravens ran 83yds. for a td on the very first play....after that play they totaled just 187 yds. for the game....their other 1st half scoring drives were....17 yds. in 5 plays, 25 yds. in 6 plays & 0 yds. in 4 plays....also counting last years playoffs, flacco has a td /int ratio of 1-4 & will be facing an indy pass rush that leads the league in sacks....so i see balt being conservative on offense & playing field position & relying on their defense that now has ed reed back & has allowed 211 ypg & 12 ppg in their last 5games....think the balt. lbs & 2ndary will try to disrupt the inexperienced colt receivers (garcon & collie), double up on wayne & give clark & addai the short passes & try to force turnovers....which, imo is all conducive to the score being kept down....
Another game:
here is a little more info about the dallas / minn under....
the cowboys have turned up their defense since their 12/13 game vs. san diego in which they allowed 20 points....since then they allowed 17 to the saints, shutouts to wash. & phil & then 14 to phil last week....that's about 10 ppg in those 5 games....while the minn. defense has not allowed over 10 pts. in any of their last 5 home games & for the season they have allowed 15.5 ppg at home....
since 1992 dallas is 11-1 under in road games after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half....the average score was dallas 16.8,opponent 16.9....
over the last 2 seasons dallas is 7-0 under vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season....the average score was dallas 15.1, opponent 11.1....
since 1992 minn. is 17-5 under as a home favorite of 3 points or less....the average score was minn. 20.9,opponent 15.8....
SD v. Jets under 42.5 and Indi v. Balt under 45
Forgive me for stating the obvious straight up, but neither the Jets nor Ravens will score 34 again this week!
...and history tends to agree.
League: 0-11 under (Av. total 45.0...av. score 35.6) road Conf. dog, total 40.5+, off a 7+ ats win as any road dog with 32+ TOP. [Jets]
Big win last week, but they are now big dogs for a reason...they struggle to score.
Averages are ok on the season, but their schedule has been extremely soft. (Discount the last 2 reg. gtames too, playing non-starting defenses.)
They've played just 4 games (3 teams) in the top 15 for scores against!!
NE (5th) x2, Carolina (9th) and Atl (14th)...av'd 13.5 ppg.
SD are 11th.
Good match-up defensively for the Jets tho...SD don't run the ball well (dead last @ 3.3 ypc!) and the Jets have the best pass D in the NFL by a long way.
Amazingly, SD have played only 5 teams in the top 15 for scoring allowed too...
...24-17 at a stretch.
League: 0-6 under (Av. total 38.5...av. score 27.7!!) any road dog, off a 21+ ats win as a 3+ dog, if they lost last meeting SU with 30+ TOP. [Balt]
...teams also 0-6 ats...av'ing only 6.2 pgg!!
Makes sense...Raven had 24 points on the board before anyone even knew what happened last week...18 plays!!
Indi very good defensively, gave up just 18 ppg at home (not counting the last Jets game, who had 3 @ HT)...and although on paper their run D looks poor (126 @ 4.3), those numbers have been skewed big time by the last 2 games Indi played...
...they had given up just 5 runs of 20+ yards in the first 14 weeks, best in the NFL.
Same deal as last game exactly...Balt will try to keep Manning off the field with run, tick, run...
...Indi won't give up the big play...
...Balt D does what it can.
The 2 teams have played 7 times in the last 8 years with 6 of those games going 'under' (and under this number.)...
...a Play-off game @ Indi in '07 finsih 15-6 (41), and this is the 2nd highest posted total in those 8 games!
So it seems that you may not be that far off with most of your thoughts BigEast. The only one that worries me is the AZ@NO total, it's 57 for a reason.
Just my two cents and I hope some of the above stats help.
Saints/Cards under 57
Minn/Dallas - Already got in at under 47.5 
Ravens/Colts under 44
Jets/SD under 42.5
No gimmick here and not a fade of last weekend's playoffs where all 4 overs hit.
I truly think all 4 games have a good shot at hitting the under based on my numbers and some historical trends.
The 1 game I have already locked in early is Minn/Dallas as I knew the total would drop after being posted at 47.5. It has dropped a full 2 points since then.
I'll keep watching for line movements on the others but so far I am only seeing SD move down a half point (wrong direction for me - but I can see a 21-13 game here).
I was banking on Joe Public to pound that Saints/Cards total up but it stands solid at 57. I still think it can move up on game day - hopefully a full point as every tout under the sun posts the over! LOL
Sides and final card will come along as the week winds down.
Good luck all.
Oh yeah - 2-4 last weekend with 2 of the big plays going down.
Not mine BigEast, would like to take the credit but found them at another site. Just thought they may be helpful from a confidence standpoint when making your plays.
I already have 2K down on 3 of them and am thinking of a round robin for a nickel 
The money on green bay far outweighed the over bettors, the line swung 6 points and the O/U only swung 1 or 2 points so you tell me where the public isnt wrong. Everyone had the pack and look what happened
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