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Debunk Vegas...A case for the Bengals

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Posted: #1
There is a general rule out there that Vegas wants even money on each side, when in fact this can't be farther from the truth. If you break down gambaling to a business it gets much clearer.
 
What does a person at his/job need to do to a job security? Perform
 
I believe Vegas sets lines that look attractive for the Public to bet Faves. Look at this week 8 out of 12 Dogs cover, who wins? Vegas
 
When I am selling you a car I am going to tell you you are getting a great deal. Now for all of you people who think they know the car business, if I can make 2K per deal that is great, everything else is gravy.  Sometimes it can be $6K or $100. If I hit a Home Run on a used car i am  not telling that customer I made $2-3-4 K, I'm not telling him anything about profit. What does this have to do with Gambling?
 
By opening the line at -6.5, Joe Public runs to it like a moth to the Flame. The Pats at Bills was -6. Thje Line should be in between 4 or 5, but because the publics perception of NE being this Juggernaut going undefeated, you are paying a tax to bet the Pats and you don't even know it because you think it is a gift @ 6.5 or 7.
 
This is what sports betting is about, Perception and past performance.
 
My guess is nobody on covers makes the line. They have some smart sob's who know just how to take candy from babies. I mean have any of you been to Vegas? Does your house resemble a Las Vegas Casino. My guess is that if it does, you're not wasting your time on Covers, you are out there making moves.
 
Now do Favorites cover? Yes, but at a 33% clip you will be broke very soon.
 
Reason for a cover:
1. Carson Palmer
2. Chad Johnson
3. T. J. Who's yo Mama
4. Marvin Lewis
5. National Spotlight motivates players to shine, esp in front of  home crowd
6. "They Are Who We Thought They Were!!!!" Bears24 Cards23
7. Cards 21 Steelers 14
8. 8-4 Dog record this week
9. NE can still go undefeated if they don't cover this one
10. Any Given Sunday...or Monday any team can win, Shit happens in the NFL and it rolls downhill fast(i.e.fumbles, ints, sacks, bone headed plays)
11. Fade the public...or some newbie jackoff who garuntees NE covers by 10 or more...easily
 
feel free to leave any thoughts
 
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Posted: #2
 well done
 
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Posted: #3
should read
 
What does a person at his/her job need to do about job security? Perform
 
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Posted: #4
Good wrtie up but New England is an exception to the rule here. Cincy is the most overhyped team in the league. Why can't people see that this team is just not that talented other than at QB and WR. They have no line on either side of the ball and their stud RB is out for tonight's game. God luck running against the best rush D in the NFL.  There are only so many points Palmer/CJ/Housh can put up. Have you seen ayone stop the Pats this year yet? Didn't think so..so I am not about to put my money on this horrid Bengal D to be the first to stop it.
 
Betting NE until they let me down...
 
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Posted: #5
I agree L_S_U. I feel like the Bengals are being looked at like the Saints were last Monday Night. They are just not very good. The CAN score,  but without Rudi I think Bellicheck will have some surprises for Mr Palmer up his sleeve.
 
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Posted: #6
LSU-Who has NE played other than a shred-of-last-years team in the Chargers. Cincy's O handled the Ravens, who were suppose to have the best D in the NFL mind you. The Pats are still without Pro Bowlers Seymour and Harrison and Harrison's absence will be felt in the secondary.
 
NE opponants:
 
Jets 1-3
Bills 1-3
Chargers 1-3
 
What dynamic passing attack was thrown at them? Squirt gun Chad(my condolances KOAJ)? Senator(Trent) Edwards? Chargers Deep Threat?
 
Nothing is as it seems this week and I can't believe people don't see it. I would rathher sit out this game than lay 7+ for a Monday Night Visitor.
 
You are paying a Tax to Bet NE. Do you like Taxes, I don't!
 
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Posted: #7
I'd like to add that hindsight is 20/20.  No one could've predicted how bad the Jets and Chargers were gonna be.  If I recall, many sharps were on the Jets in Week 1.  Divisional game, addition in Thomas Jones, home field, protege vs. mentor.  We all know what happened in that game.

Same thing with the Chargers. A lot of sharps and touts were on that game as well. Revenge game, most dynamic RB in the NFL, prime time TV and they go and get slaughtered.

The only game we can look at as an easy win was Buffalo with all the injuries they had.

Looking at the Bengals, this team is as inconsistent as it gets.  Played a great game against the Ravens, got exposed against Cleveland, the offense never got on track against Seattle and the defense collapsed in the 4th quarter of that game.

I don't care about must-wins and all that hype.  Brady and Belicheck are ballers.  There's a reason this team is as close to a dynasty as it gets.  How were they able to win so many games last year with no talent at WR and a makeshift secondary?  I guarantee you the Pats will not lookahead nor take this game lightly.

I've heard of freak athletes but never freak coaches and Belicheck is as close to a freak coach as it gets.  If he wasn't a coach, I'd peg him for a serial killer or terrorist.  He just has this quiet reserved inner maniac to him.  Pats roll tonight.  Cincy can score all they want but without a D, it won't make a difference.  Just ask the Phoenix Suns.
 
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Posted: #8
Cincy's O handled the Ravens?  Give me a break.  Maybe the outcome of that game had something to do with the 6 turnovers Balt had?

Reasons for NE cover:

1.) Brady >> Palmer
2.) NE receivers > Cincy receivers
3.) NE defense >>> Cincy defense
4.) NE O-line >> Cincy O-line
5.) NE running game >> Cincy's running game

No, I don't like paying taxes, but I def don't like playing losers.  NE is on a mission this year and is the far superior team in just about every category.
 
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Posted: #9
 
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Posted: #10
One correction - the Pats and Bills opened at -14 (not -6) and ran up to -16.5.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by itsoverjonny:

One correction - the Pats and Bills opened at -14 (not -6) and ran up to -16.5.

shit, I meant Jets at Meadowlands. thanks

 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by HVP45:

Cincy can score all they want but without a D, it won't make a difference.  Just ask the Phoenix Suns.

 

 
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Posted: #13
NONEED4LUCK - You're giving the oddsmakers too much credit. They are nothing more than mathematical robots.
 
And according to my records, i'd like to think im smarter than those robots. I trust my handicapping system and acumen to beat the books almost every week and definitely every year.
 
Vegas statistically don't make as much money in the sportsbetting arena. Per square feet, the slot machines are the casino's most profitable venue. For the sake of architectural aesthetics and ambiance there's a lot of wasted space in Ceasar's Palace sportsbetting floor, as an example. However their 5% rake from sportsbetting is higher than the universal .89% to 3% house edge on the gaming tables and slots and they suffice on the 10% juice.
 
Your reasons for a Cincy cover:
 
1) You're betting that Carson Palmer will have a better game than Tom Brady. GL with that.
2) You're betting that Chad Johnson will out-perform Randy Moss and out-play the Patriots secondary. GL with that.
3) Same as above. Patriots have a stable of wide-out talents as well.
4) Who's the better coach? Very subjective and it depends on whats being weighted here. Tenure? Post-season wins? Regular season wins? Championship wins? Cheatin' BillyBel by a landslide.
5) Goes both ways. Home-field advantage to the Bengals of course.
6) 2 different teams. Not a good basis for comparison but i get your point although invalid as it is.
7) Again, 2 different teams. Why the comparison? Why don't you Tampa Bay versus Dallas, Denver versus Indianapolis and/or Green Bay versus Minnesota?
8) That's a no-brainer. Not a good way to handicap games IMO. By the way, i bet all home underdogs on Sunday and went 4-1 ATS. So i do know what you're hinting at. Still, not a good way to handicap games by just betting on home underdogs blindly. I had good reasons for taking Atlanta, Buffalo, Detroit and New York Giants. The only reason you're taking Cincy tonight is because of what transpired on Sunday which is irrelevant to this match-up from my handicapping point of view. The 4 home underdogs that won straight-up [for me] are nothing but coincedences to me. It has no bearing on how i handicap the Patriots/Cincy match-up.
9) True. Another no-brainer. Thanks, we get it.
10) More banal rhetoric but yeah, shit happens. I lost the San Fran bet maybe because Alex Smith went down and Trent Dilfer still sucks.
11) I just don't understand how people can use this basis for handicapping games. Fade the public? What garbage is that? I think you'll go go 50% to 55% at best with that logic. I know i can do much better than 55%.
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #14
Warblade, let's not confuse the lazy, no desire, no effort NBA to a league in where you actually need to give effort or get cut. please don't compare any NFL team to a NBA team
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by NONEED4LUCK:

LSU-Who has NE played other than a shred-of-last-years team in the Chargers. Cincy's O handled the Ravens, who were suppose to have the best D in the NFL mind you. The Pats are still without Pro Bowlers Seymour and Harrison and Harrison's absence will be felt in the secondary.
 
NE opponants:
 
Jets 1-3
Bills 1-3
Chargers 1-3
 
What dynamic passing attack was thrown at them? Squirt gun Chad(my condolances KOAJ)? Senator(Trent) Edwards? Chargers Deep Threat?
 
Nothing is as it seems this week and I can't believe people don't see it. I would rathher sit out this game than lay 7+ for a Monday Night Visitor.
 
You are paying a Tax to Bet NE. Do you like Taxes, I don't!

The Bengals have played:

@ Seattle L 21-24 (3-1)

@ Cleveland L 45-51 (2-2)

Baltimore W 27-20 (2-2)

Let's see!  We know that Baltimore is a fruad after losing to Cleveland just like Cincinnati did 2 weeks ago!  Seattle is the most like a Patriots team on this list and come on, Seattle would lose by two TD's to the Pats!  So, only because this is in Cincinatti does the Bengals even concern anyone!  I think the Pats win this one by 10 points unless the Bengals get a back door cover with a last second TD down by 10 and then they only lose by 3.  I could see that happening!

"Who dey beat the Bengals.... The Pats - Dat Who Dey!"

My Prediction:

New England Patriots 45

Cincinnati Bengals 35

If they have the back door cover then it will be 45-42 Pats!

 
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Posted: #16
Bengals +9(-120) 1  unit
 
Thanks spf911
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by HappyKane:

NONEED4LUCK - You're giving the oddsmakers too much credit. They are nothing more than mathematical robots.
 
And according to my records, i'd like to think im smarter than those robots. I trust my handicapping system and acumen to beat the books almost every week and definitely every year.
 
Vegas statistically don't make as much money in the sportsbetting arena. Per square feet, the slot machines are the casino's most profitable venue. For the sake of architectural aesthetics and ambiance there's a lot of wasted space in Ceasar's Palace sportsbetting floor, as an example. However their 5% rake from sportsbetting is higher than the universal .89% to 3% house edge on the gaming tables and slots and they suffice on the 10% juice.
 
Your reasons for a Cincy cover:
 
1) You're betting that Carson Palmer will have a better game than Tom Brady. GL with that.
2) You're betting that Chad Johnson will out-perform Randy Moss and out-play the Patriots secondary. GL with that.
3) Same as above. Patriots have a stable of wide-out talents as well.
4) Who's the better coach? Very subjective and it depends on whats being weighted here. Tenure? Post-season wins? Regular season wins? Championship wins? Cheatin' BillyBel by a landslide.
5) Goes both ways. Home-field advantage to the Bengals of course.
6) 2 different teams. Not a good basis for comparison but i get your point although invalid as it is.
7) Again, 2 different teams. Why the comparison? Why don't you Tampa Bay versus Dallas, Denver versus Indianapolis and/or Green Bay versus Minnesota?
8) That's a no-brainer. Not a good way to handicap games IMO. By the way, i bet all home underdogs on Sunday and went 4-1 ATS. So i do know what you're hinting at. Still, not a good way to handicap games by just betting on home underdogs blindly. I had good reasons for taking Atlanta, Buffalo, Detroit and New York Giants. The only reason you're taking Cincy tonight is because of what transpired on Sunday which is irrelevant to this match-up from my handicapping point of view. The 4 home underdogs that won straight-up [for me] are nothing but coincedences to me. It has no bearing on how i handicap the Patriots/Cincy match-up.
9) True. Another no-brainer. Thanks, we get it.
10) More banal rhetoric but yeah, shit happens. I lost the San Fran bet maybe because Alex Smith went down and Trent Dilfer still sucks.
11) I just don't understand how people can use this basis for handicapping games. Fade the public? What garbage is that? I think you'll go go 50% to 55% at best with that logic. I know i can do much better than 55%.
 
 
 

 

The perfect post... This is not the same Home Dog game as Atlanta, Detroit, Buff and New York.

We have some great cappers here like RobertoFiory that for example took The Bengals and I don't blame them, their numbers show that they have a great probability for Cincy to cover. But they are not regular bettors that care about a single game or are looking to get back their losses from Sunday. All they care about is winning in the long run. And if those numbers produce some very nice profit at the end of the season, so be it.

I've followed Roberto's picks all MNF games and I'm very grateful for his hard work, but this game specifically I see it different and I don't think any of the trends or numbers fit this game where this great NE team is playing. Even if this MNF was NE against undefeated Green Bay the line would be the same.

Good luck to us all...

 
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Posted: #18
very nice write up, but all facts nonwithstanding....
the pats have a hippo potato slammer jammer hammer lock n clock combo tonight...

 
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Posted: #19
 
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Posted: #20
Even if this MNF was NE against undefeated Green Bay the line would be the same.
 
You don't actually believe this, do you with your 19 posts?
 
go back to sunday school
 
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Posted: #21
I agree, shit does happen. But usually not against the PATS. Two things stick out in my mind, acutally 3.
 
1. NO RUDI JOHNSON
2. Past performance?? PATS 38, CIN 13 drumming last year
3. TOM BRADY is better than CARSON PALMER
 
Not sure that a bit of luck or a dog weekend in the NFL (which is almost everyweekend) can overcome those three facts. GL with your pick though.
 
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Posted: #22
I see more newbies spreading Cincy LOVE (not NE). In fact it has solidified my selection tonight.
 
NE minus the points.
 
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by lbcake:

I see more newbies spreading Cincy LOVE (not NE). In fact it has solidified my selection tonight.
 
NE minus the points.
 

no way cake...all the newbs are on the Pats.

 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by NONEED4LUCK:

Even if this MNF was NE against undefeated Green Bay the line would be the same.
 
You don't actually believe this, do you with your 19 posts?
 
go back to sunday school

Well not -8 or -9 like many books have it right now but yes -6.5 like it opened.

I would unload and many people would too on a -3 to -4 Pats vs Packers and a -6.5 would be in my opinion a more logical line to balance the action.

But hey I'm not the expert, just what I imagine, that's why I'm not the linesmaker.

 
 
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Posted: #25
4. Marvin Lewis

they should replace him with Charlie Weiss
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