Actually it is James OUTSIDE the 10 and Hightower inside the 10.
I think Haley and Wisenhunt are finally figuring out that James is better as a block and release back, that is what worked great last week..stick a back next to Warner for the blitz, end pickup and it gave Kurt that extra second he needed and the results showed.
Kurt threw I think to NINE receivers last week and Boldin is a beast, his aggressiveness after catch is like few in the league and he was out of course.
Warner did great on the Giants with a terrible OL and no receivers. A guy like Kurt will throw to anyone and I think HE makes Boldin and Fitz look good.
Notice when Leinart was leading the team, how did Fitz and Boldins numbers fare then? Not even close to when Kurt was QB.
Last week there were two throws that Warner made that were completely amazing, he threw a TD pass to Fitz and he admitted later that he didnt even know if Fitz would make the catch, he was falling to the ground and put it where ONLY Fitz could catch it knowing timing wise where he would be, as Warner was being smothered by a blitz. The other was the throw between 3 defenders on the move right over the shoulder of Doucett who bobbled the ball and missed a potential 20 yard play.
The Cards have one of the worst OL's in the league and it shows with how many sacks they have surrendered and how often James gets tripped up in the backfield or at the LOS..it is terrible.
The coaching staff is finally understanding to spread 3-4 receivers out and let Warner read the defense and allow him to either check down for that easy pitch/catch yardage or spot coverage advantages and burn the defense.
In my mind (people might get mad at this) Warner is in the top 5 in the league this year, he never lost what he had in St.Louis, even with his flaws of holding the ball low, he never lost his accuracy and timing and with even reasonable time in the pocket he can beat any defense in the league.
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Koaj,
Actually it is James OUTSIDE the 10 and Hightower inside the 10.
I think Haley and Wisenhunt are finally figuring out that James is better as a block and release back, that is what worked great last week..stick a back next to Warner for the blitz, end pickup and it gave Kurt that extra second he needed and the results showed.
Kurt threw I think to NINE receivers last week and Boldin is a beast, his aggressiveness after catch is like few in the league and he was out of course.
Warner did great on the Giants with a terrible OL and no receivers. A guy like Kurt will throw to anyone and I think HE makes Boldin and Fitz look good.
Notice when Leinart was leading the team, how did Fitz and Boldins numbers fare then? Not even close to when Kurt was QB.
Last week there were two throws that Warner made that were completely amazing, he threw a TD pass to Fitz and he admitted later that he didnt even know if Fitz would make the catch, he was falling to the ground and put it where ONLY Fitz could catch it knowing timing wise where he would be, as Warner was being smothered by a blitz. The other was the throw between 3 defenders on the move right over the shoulder of Doucett who bobbled the ball and missed a potential 20 yard play.
The Cards have one of the worst OL's in the league and it shows with how many sacks they have surrendered and how often James gets tripped up in the backfield or at the LOS..it is terrible.
The coaching staff is finally understanding to spread 3-4 receivers out and let Warner read the defense and allow him to either check down for that easy pitch/catch yardage or spot coverage advantages and burn the defense.
In my mind (people might get mad at this) Warner is in the top 5 in the league this year, he never lost what he had in St.Louis, even with his flaws of holding the ball low, he never lost his accuracy and timing and with even reasonable time in the pocket he can beat any defense in the league.
Cards can't run the ball when they have to, Koaj. They can only gain yards when they run unexpectedly. Edge is way past his prime.
Washington completely exposed that part of their offense 3 games ago.
Good point except I think this OL does not work with what James needs..he can still produce and play, the line just isnt giving him a spot to studder step through.
I didnt hear that Boldin was out this week, outside some fantasy sports site, anyone have a legit link for that? I will report what I find as the week goes on.
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Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:
Cards can't run the ball when they have to, Koaj. They can only gain yards when they run unexpectedly. Edge is way past his prime.
Washington completely exposed that part of their offense 3 games ago.
Good point except I think this OL does not work with what James needs..he can still produce and play, the line just isnt giving him a spot to studder step through.
I didnt hear that Boldin was out this week, outside some fantasy sports site, anyone have a legit link for that? I will report what I find as the week goes on.
we can debate this until the cows come home but the line is not always right. the line still factors public perception
public teams are inflated. this line is off b/c linesmakers know they will get a ton of dallas money anyway so why set it at 2 or 3, when they can make it 5 or 6
<<<<<<<<<< The line is what it is. It is designed for balanced action. Whether it eventually gets balanced or not doesn't matter. The line is what it is and therefore, it is never wrong. The line is "made." The game is "played." Forget about the line, and the bookmakers, and all that garbage because it is meaningless. The line is B.S., and so are bookmakers. They are soooooooooooo unimportant but they con people into thinking they know something. They do not. Read this book HOW TO BEAT THE PRO FOOTBALL POINTSPREAD and you will begin to understand.
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Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
we can debate this until the cows come home but the line is not always right. the line still factors public perception
public teams are inflated. this line is off b/c linesmakers know they will get a ton of dallas money anyway so why set it at 2 or 3, when they can make it 5 or 6
<<<<<<<<<< The line is what it is. It is designed for balanced action. Whether it eventually gets balanced or not doesn't matter. The line is what it is and therefore, it is never wrong. The line is "made." The game is "played." Forget about the line, and the bookmakers, and all that garbage because it is meaningless. The line is B.S., and so are bookmakers. They are soooooooooooo unimportant but they con people into thinking they know something. They do not. Read this book HOW TO BEAT THE PRO FOOTBALL POINTSPREAD and you will begin to understand.
The line is what it is. It is designed for balanced action.
Even if that were true (it isn't), you have to factor in the large amount of ML bets that will come in on the underdogs (especially in games with a line this close).
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The line is what it is. It is designed for balanced action.
Even if that were true (it isn't), you have to factor in the large amount of ML bets that will come in on the underdogs (especially in games with a line this close).
What a great thread, Sunday should be interesting. All over AZ here, as that is definately where the logic points. Romo has a habit of screwing me over whenever I'm against him so we shall see.
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What a great thread, Sunday should be interesting. All over AZ here, as that is definately where the logic points. Romo has a habit of screwing me over whenever I'm against him so we shall see.
The line is what it is. It is designed for balanced action.
Even if that were true (it isn't), you have to factor in the large amount of ML bets that will come in on the underdogs (especially in games with a line this close).
ML is a separate pool. Jeff Sagarin makes this game Arizona, -2. But Jeff Sagarin isn't a bookmaker. Nobody is betting into Sagarin's line. They might be betting "on" Sagarin's line compared to a book's, which is Dallas -5, which is the right number. All the bookmaker's lines are right. The bookmaker is perfect at what he does. He does not make a bad line. Never has, never will. Bettors either make a mistake, or they are correct. The median NFL game lands 8 points from the line.
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Quote Originally Posted by jasonwhitesknee:
The line is what it is. It is designed for balanced action.
Even if that were true (it isn't), you have to factor in the large amount of ML bets that will come in on the underdogs (especially in games with a line this close).
ML is a separate pool. Jeff Sagarin makes this game Arizona, -2. But Jeff Sagarin isn't a bookmaker. Nobody is betting into Sagarin's line. They might be betting "on" Sagarin's line compared to a book's, which is Dallas -5, which is the right number. All the bookmaker's lines are right. The bookmaker is perfect at what he does. He does not make a bad line. Never has, never will. Bettors either make a mistake, or they are correct. The median NFL game lands 8 points from the line.
Zona can throw the ball at home and dallas hasn't shown the ability to not score anywhere in the last two seasons. if, they commit to the run game, then dallas should not have a problem in this one. The "pass to TO 20 times a game" doesn't work. Marion needs at least 13 and Felix needs to get the explosive touches early and then again late.
Dal - 38
AZ- 26
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Zona can throw the ball at home and dallas hasn't shown the ability to not score anywhere in the last two seasons. if, they commit to the run game, then dallas should not have a problem in this one. The "pass to TO 20 times a game" doesn't work. Marion needs at least 13 and Felix needs to get the explosive touches early and then again late.
KOAJ : I like what you said about SD this week. I really like them this week the fact they might not have LT(or have him but not completely healthy) shouldn't matter much because Rodgers is also not at full health. As evidence of last week lost to ATL we can all see what happen when the start QB is not at full health.
As far as Dallas and Arizona I don't think the line is wrong. I just don't see Dallas cover this week. When the Big Tuna left to go to Miami and took his side kick down their to make him head coach of the Dolphin, Dallas lost some of it fire.
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KOAJ : I like what you said about SD this week. I really like them this week the fact they might not have LT(or have him but not completely healthy) shouldn't matter much because Rodgers is also not at full health. As evidence of last week lost to ATL we can all see what happen when the start QB is not at full health.
As far as Dallas and Arizona I don't think the line is wrong. I just don't see Dallas cover this week. When the Big Tuna left to go to Miami and took his side kick down their to make him head coach of the Dolphin, Dallas lost some of it fire.
The line is what it is. It is designed for balanced action. Whether it eventually gets balanced or not doesn't matter. ------------- so then oddsmakers would move the line to get balanced action
you contradict yourself about 3 times and your premise, i believe is wrong. there are absolutely games where the book has an "interest" in who covers
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The line is what it is. It is designed for balanced action. Whether it eventually gets balanced or not doesn't matter. ------------- so then oddsmakers would move the line to get balanced action
you contradict yourself about 3 times and your premise, i believe is wrong. there are absolutely games where the book has an "interest" in who covers
The line is what it is. It is designed for balanced action. Whether it eventually gets balanced or not doesn't matter. ------------- so then oddsmakers would move the line to get balanced action
you contradict yourself about 3 times and your premise, i believe is wrong. there are absolutely games where the book has an "interest" in who covers
-- ^^^^^<<<<<<< And bettors shouldn't care at all what games those happen to be, or they are simply being brainhandled by the book... The book has an interest in who covers if, once the pool is closed, their action is unbalanced. But because there will be more than one game unbalanced, they will win some and lose some, and get their 5% on the rest. It's all about volume. And, they will lie like the biggest lying SOBs straight from hell there ever were, so nobody should ever listen to a bookmaker for any kind of betting advice... Dallas is -5. In last 15 years of NFL games there have been 121 -5 favorites. 42 covered by 4 to 34 points. 41 lost vs. the spread by -4 to -35 points. The other 39 landed fro 3 to -3 vs. the spread. If Arizona wins this game 34-20 or 44-20, the line of -5 still would have been right. The line is always right. Value is what you GET (determined afterwards). Price is what you PAY for a commodity (i.e., $100, or $200 or $300 price, on commodity of Arizona, +5). The bettor determines his price, and the price is NOT the line.
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Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
The line is what it is. It is designed for balanced action. Whether it eventually gets balanced or not doesn't matter. ------------- so then oddsmakers would move the line to get balanced action
you contradict yourself about 3 times and your premise, i believe is wrong. there are absolutely games where the book has an "interest" in who covers
-- ^^^^^<<<<<<< And bettors shouldn't care at all what games those happen to be, or they are simply being brainhandled by the book... The book has an interest in who covers if, once the pool is closed, their action is unbalanced. But because there will be more than one game unbalanced, they will win some and lose some, and get their 5% on the rest. It's all about volume. And, they will lie like the biggest lying SOBs straight from hell there ever were, so nobody should ever listen to a bookmaker for any kind of betting advice... Dallas is -5. In last 15 years of NFL games there have been 121 -5 favorites. 42 covered by 4 to 34 points. 41 lost vs. the spread by -4 to -35 points. The other 39 landed fro 3 to -3 vs. the spread. If Arizona wins this game 34-20 or 44-20, the line of -5 still would have been right. The line is always right. Value is what you GET (determined afterwards). Price is what you PAY for a commodity (i.e., $100, or $200 or $300 price, on commodity of Arizona, +5). The bettor determines his price, and the price is NOT the line.
And another thing. Dallas is 20-19 ATS since 2006. Anyone betting against them every week because the line is 3 or 5 points off in the other team's favor is still losing money. Anyone betting on them every week is losing money, too. It's a bookmaker's game, as I'm sure you're aware.
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And another thing. Dallas is 20-19 ATS since 2006. Anyone betting against them every week because the line is 3 or 5 points off in the other team's favor is still losing money. Anyone betting on them every week is losing money, too. It's a bookmaker's game, as I'm sure you're aware.
Bengals D coordinator is Mike Zimmer, ex-Cowboys insider for 12 years. There's a reason the Bengals showed up for 4 quarters vs. NY Giants and Dallas. Keep that in mind when they play the Redskins and Eagles as long as Cincinnati isn't too banged up or mentally messed up at the time.
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Bengals D coordinator is Mike Zimmer, ex-Cowboys insider for 12 years. There's a reason the Bengals showed up for 4 quarters vs. NY Giants and Dallas. Keep that in mind when they play the Redskins and Eagles as long as Cincinnati isn't too banged up or mentally messed up at the time.
The public is going to pound dallas, cowboys are going to implode not explode......the cards have alot of weapons just like the cowboys but arizona is going to win on the defensive side. Prediction:
Dallas 28-Cardinals 37
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The public is going to pound dallas, cowboys are going to implode not explode......the cards have alot of weapons just like the cowboys but arizona is going to win on the defensive side. Prediction:
Has anyone else noticed that Dallas covers on the Road... and doesn't at Home? Maybe too much screwin' around for 'ol boy Romo and Jessica when playing in the Big 'D'.
Oddsmakers are right on this one. They are overdue for a another blowout ; Dallas has better focus is better on the Road.
In games involving the Cowboys and Raiders, the road team is a perfect 9-0....
Less drama on the road for these guys....ALL BUSINESS
Kurt Warner reverts to his old self (plus the pressure)......couple of picks/fumbles to boot.
Dallas regroups by going 65/35 (run/pass ratio).
Cowboys 27, Cards 13
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Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:
Has anyone else noticed that Dallas covers on the Road... and doesn't at Home? Maybe too much screwin' around for 'ol boy Romo and Jessica when playing in the Big 'D'.
Oddsmakers are right on this one. They are overdue for a another blowout ; Dallas has better focus is better on the Road.
In games involving the Cowboys and Raiders, the road team is a perfect 9-0....
Less drama on the road for these guys....ALL BUSINESS
Kurt Warner reverts to his old self (plus the pressure)......couple of picks/fumbles to boot.
I Like It However, I didn't get my "Orders" Games Yet, I work with a group down here in the Islands, and I'll "Bet" Zona" Is One Of The Games We May "Hit" Hope So, because I don't like Dallas (On a Personal) Note, (However, thats Not how I invest) Plus I would bet If I called Any, book they would be all public $$ is on Dallas, and then line will stay away from key numbers they may even be at a Pick", now If that would happen guys ask yourselfs WHY? but then again most woul Still Bet On Dallas.... Crazy But True... So BOL....Its All About The Numbers, and long run JP will Lose, EVery Year...... ( I Know That Sucks) so WHY bet with them.... Unless you are only interested in fun, that another story... Zona Seems like a good pick, however, I would try to get it at 7'...
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Hey, KOAJ Good For You Taking ZONA+Points
I Like It However, I didn't get my "Orders" Games Yet, I work with a group down here in the Islands, and I'll "Bet" Zona" Is One Of The Games We May "Hit" Hope So, because I don't like Dallas (On a Personal) Note, (However, thats Not how I invest) Plus I would bet If I called Any, book they would be all public $$ is on Dallas, and then line will stay away from key numbers they may even be at a Pick", now If that would happen guys ask yourselfs WHY? but then again most woul Still Bet On Dallas.... Crazy But True... So BOL....Its All About The Numbers, and long run JP will Lose, EVery Year...... ( I Know That Sucks) so WHY bet with them.... Unless you are only interested in fun, that another story... Zona Seems like a good pick, however, I would try to get it at 7'...
thought, this was a Gambling/Wagering Site. Most here sound like "Sports Casters" Lke the guys on TV or even sportswriters, guys I know that run "Outs" tell me they always give those types Big Betting Limmits, because they Lose Every Week. and those guys on T.V. Seem to know so much about sports, and players, etc... and oddmakers put up line for many sports and in most cases don't even know all the players and stuff, but they are so, so smart, with so much$$$ riding on their number, man I always want to me with them, and when their is more then 70% hitting them on a side, you know 9 out of 10 times their going to get the best, and when you think the line is off and maybe you think they made some kind of :Mistake" They Do Not" My 2cents Bet With What You Think is the error, because,They Do Not Make 2 many mistakes.... I say This because public may thing this line (Dallas) is off, and to the TV (Sports) watcher, not wager it really dos seem wrong... Anyway BOL to all ! Need to look into this one....
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thought, this was a Gambling/Wagering Site. Most here sound like "Sports Casters" Lke the guys on TV or even sportswriters, guys I know that run "Outs" tell me they always give those types Big Betting Limmits, because they Lose Every Week. and those guys on T.V. Seem to know so much about sports, and players, etc... and oddmakers put up line for many sports and in most cases don't even know all the players and stuff, but they are so, so smart, with so much$$$ riding on their number, man I always want to me with them, and when their is more then 70% hitting them on a side, you know 9 out of 10 times their going to get the best, and when you think the line is off and maybe you think they made some kind of :Mistake" They Do Not" My 2cents Bet With What You Think is the error, because,They Do Not Make 2 many mistakes.... I say This because public may thing this line (Dallas) is off, and to the TV (Sports) watcher, not wager it really dos seem wrong... Anyway BOL to all ! Need to look into this one....
peppy - i dont care much about what dallas did in the last 10 years as -5 faves or their ATS since 06
i care about the teams playing sunday and what i believe to be an inflated line. dallas may win and i dont care if they do, just not by more than 5
The point -- which is being missed -- is that if The Dallas number is "wrong" this week, then the Dallas number is "wrong" every week. And you could start a thread EVERY week that says, "OTHER SIDE, PLUS WHATEVER AGAINST DALLAS BECAUSE DALLAS IS TOO PUBLIC!!" And, over time, this strategy would net a loss. But the Dallas number is not wrong. It is right. The line is always right. Are you fronting for a bookmaker and trying to attract action?
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Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
peppy - i dont care much about what dallas did in the last 10 years as -5 faves or their ATS since 06
i care about the teams playing sunday and what i believe to be an inflated line. dallas may win and i dont care if they do, just not by more than 5
The point -- which is being missed -- is that if The Dallas number is "wrong" this week, then the Dallas number is "wrong" every week. And you could start a thread EVERY week that says, "OTHER SIDE, PLUS WHATEVER AGAINST DALLAS BECAUSE DALLAS IS TOO PUBLIC!!" And, over time, this strategy would net a loss. But the Dallas number is not wrong. It is right. The line is always right. Are you fronting for a bookmaker and trying to attract action?
IMO, it is understood that the opening line is a point or two higher for teams the books know the public will bet (i.e. 'public teams' like Dallas, NO, and the former NE/IND teams etc.).
over time if you're paying 11/10 or -110 and you lose a couple of points everytime you bet on them than that puts you at a huge disadvantage... btw, how's Dallas' ATS record? not very good is it? I wonder why
not to say you just fade those teams every week, but if you pick them, you better be damn confident and make sure it's not past any key numbers. (this one is above 3 & 4 but less than 7) why?
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I understand your logic peppy, but I disagree.
IMO, it is understood that the opening line is a point or two higher for teams the books know the public will bet (i.e. 'public teams' like Dallas, NO, and the former NE/IND teams etc.).
over time if you're paying 11/10 or -110 and you lose a couple of points everytime you bet on them than that puts you at a huge disadvantage... btw, how's Dallas' ATS record? not very good is it? I wonder why
not to say you just fade those teams every week, but if you pick them, you better be damn confident and make sure it's not past any key numbers. (this one is above 3 & 4 but less than 7) why?
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