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Dallas -5 @ Arizona???

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Posted: #51
I agree KOAJ. SD is a play of the month to me.
 
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Posted: #52
the cowboys are due for an ats win, if that makes any sense
 
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Posted: #53
i see romo having time to step up and deliver the ball to the open receiver. In my opinion, everyone in AZ's secondary besides Adrian Wilson is a joke. No Bodlin. dal has too many weapons. marion/felix will keep an average defense honest. romo takes over with the play action. warner won't have the big pocket (anxious). hopefully try to do too much.
i agree it will be a shoot out, so the over looks nice. Dallas defense is not where most expected but I see them on top by 10-17 points at the end of the game. But hey we all have our own picture of what will happen..
 
 
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Posted: #54
I will never back a team that averages three yards a rush vs. a team that averages five. Despite some struggles at times Dallas has a far better defense than Arizona. Too many people are impressed with the win vs. overrated Buff (who lost Edwards early), or that game would have been a real shootout both ways. This game could be played on the moon and that line couldn't be set high enough for me to take Arizona. Warner may not make it through this game- Dallas 38 Arizona 23.
 
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Posted: #55
I'm a boys fan personally, but if we can't get any big plays out of Owens or Felix Fones early, the Cardinals could take early control. Cowboys weakness is their pass rush and the long balls down the middle, expect fitzgerald to have a huge game. That being said, i'm siding with the points, and hoping the boys can take a close one. Also, i know it seems too easy but i can't see this game staying under.
 
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Posted: #56
7 team parlay for fun
10/08/2008 by ONLINE at 12:17 AM
[Ticket #: 45737597] PARLAY (7 TEAMS) (FP)
10/12/2008 @ 10:00 AM NFL[213] CHICAGO -3+105
10/12/2008 @ 10:00 AM NFL[217] TOTAL o42½-150 (B+2)
(ST. LOUIS vrs WASHINGTON)
10/12/2008 @ 10:00 AM NFL[218] WASHINGTON -12½-130 (B+1)
10/12/2008 @ 01:15 PM NFL[223] DALLAS -3-155 (B+1½)
10/12/2008 @ 01:15 PM NFL[223] TOTAL o48½-150 (B+2)
(DALLAS vrs ARIZONA)
10/12/2008 @ 05:15 PM NFL[228] SAN DIEGO -5½-110
10/13/2008 @ 05:35 PM NFL[229] NY GIANTS -6½-130 (B+1)
25.00wins 1374.57

 
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Posted: #57
I think at least 5 hit...but I'm going for it
gonna post my upset parlays...those are fun, small bets, but fun
Got the big money on SD -5.5 ...Still think public's wrong on SD pats game...SD comes out hard and shows they actually have a D w/out Merriman.  GO JAMMER!
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by NFLKiller:

I think at least 5 hit...but I'm going for it
gonna post my upset parlays...those are fun, small bets, but fun
Got the big money on SD -5.5 ...Still think public's wrong on SD pats game...SD comes out hard and shows they actually have a D w/out Merriman.  GO JAMMER!



easier said than done.  (or easier to write too.)

pats got good Pass D and pass Rush.

I expect Gates to have a big game.  But LT will be held in check and Chambers will be a non-factor.

If SD was gonna win this game, they would be favored by a full TD.
 
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Posted: #59
playing in arizona is like a home game for dallas! too many fans! too little points! usually dont bet my team because of inflation but people believe in zona? lol  
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by exchief21:

 

WOW how can such a good capper be so lost???? Dallas should be the underdog huh.... you need to go to sleep and think of how dumb that is to say.  GL please open your eyes before you take AZ.



link

lets use power rating shall we?

sagarin has these two teams as roughly equal, now give arizona 3 for homefield and you have a true line of -2 or -3 depending your HFA allowance

dallas i favored by 5 because of blind public fan bettors like yourself who will lay any amount of reasonable points with their team regardless of their opponent
 
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Posted: #61
I actually like dallas only because dallas can get pressure on the QB and Warner has always stuggled with pressure.  He is prone to throw picks and fumble when being rushed in the pocket.  I think the line is right but would lean to dallas a little.  Probably a no play for me.  GL
 
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Posted: #62
Zona and the over 2 team teas. Zona +12 Over 41.5
 
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Posted: #63
Will come down to these 2 things:
 
1) Who can run the ball.
2) Who can stop the run.
 
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Posted: #64
But wait, this is Dallas.
 
Dallas only runs the ball when "TO" says it's "OK."
 
This Dallas team is a crock.  They have a lame duck head coach being watched over by an offensive coordinator, an owner trying to intimidate officials from the sideline, a QB who takes way too many risks and has no confidence right now, a WR who calls the shots on offense.  No solid foundation at all.
 
Take Az +5 or no bet at all.
 
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Posted: #65
KOAJ, you mentioned the Sagarin ratings - the sagarin-type guys that I use have GB as 1st tier pick, AZ (if the line will move up a .5 pt) as their 2nd tier pick, and Wash as their 3rd tier pick.

 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:


dallas i favored by 5 because of blind public fan bettors like yourself who will lay any amount of reasonable points with their team regardless of their opponent

 
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Posted: #67
I think we all need to put the past behind us and realize how good Arizona and Miami are this year.
 
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Posted: #68
94%94%82%73%49%
-5.5
Green Bay San Diego
-5.5
Tampa Bay New Orleans
-5.5
Dallas New England
-5.5
Cleveland Pittsburgh
-5.5


KOAJ, as you can see from NFL 2007, there were 5 home dogs of 5.5 points.  The "pros" were on 4 of them pretty heavy.  Of those 4 - they went 3-1.  In all, they went 4-1.

There were no games in 2007 with a spread of 5 (that I could find anyway - if you know different, let me know)
 
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Posted: #69
well, that didn't print well at all... anyway, you get the point: home dogs of 5.5 are 4-1
 
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Posted: #70
i like zona at home with the points but i somehow could just see dallas scoring a late touchdown to go up 10.  STAY AWAY imo.
 
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by WendysRox:

KOAJ, you mentioned the Sagarin ratings - the sagarin-type guys that I use have GB as 1st tier pick, AZ (if the line will move up a .5 pt) as their 2nd tier pick, and Wash as their 3rd tier pick.



i look at sagarin once in a while...esp in a game i feel is lined out of whack.

the SOS ratings help a bunch as last week anyone could see the difference between buffalo and arizona

fwiw - i dont like GB or Washington this week...i do like zona
 
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Posted: #72
i'm worried about the Dallas o-line, as when i fade them they like to fucking pancake everyone in sight.

...you do have me leaning ARI pretty hard though
 
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Posted: #73
Dallas -10 allday.
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:

i'm worried about the Dallas o-line, as when i fade them they like to fucking pancake everyone in sight.

...you do have me leaning ARI pretty hard though


not trying to force a play one way or the other...just letting people know that the line is very wrong
 
 
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Posted: #75
Hey KOAJ, are you going to be ready to take some crap IF Dallas does blowout AZ with the way you're touting AZ+5? Not being a dick, just asking a serious question.

My take on it is this:

Dallas at home plays considerably worse that they do on the road. They did not cover the spread against Philly or Cinccy and lost SU to Wash. Granted they played much tougher opponents, they were at home.

On the road they beat Green Bay by 11, and Cleveland by 18, covering both spreads with ease. If I was going to wager on this game it would be due partially to those facts. Dallas plays better on the road than they do in their own house from what we have seen so far.

Lest we not forgot there was an article about Kurt Warner and how after seeing that hit on Boldin he started to talk about considering retirement after this season. Warner is afraid to get hit. If Dallas' D-line gets pressure on him what do you think he is going to do? He is going to throw interceptions and get sacked and possibly even fumble the ball. Turnovers may be the key to this game for Dallas to blowout and cover the spread.

The public may favour Dallas, the line might have public perception takein into the account but, the betting public is not always wrong.

Either way goo luck with the pick.
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