Balt-KC Thoughts

I will start with my disclaimer. I am a disappointed Chiefs fan and have watched every minute of every game they've played this year so take this for what it's worth...

Kansas City, short of a few bright spots when they are well behind, has looked dismal this year. D-Bowe doesn't show up until garbage time (his stats are misleading as most of his yards come at the end of losing contests), the Chiefs lead the league in turnovers (it's not just Cassel turning it over, the receivers are having hands problems causing tipped balls), and the defense has been extremely porous under Romeo Crennel (one of the worst in the league in points per game). Having said that this team has weapons. Bowe and Baldwin are big athletic receivers, Moeaki is a good pass-catching tight end, everyone knows what Charles can do, and the defense has the talent to get after the quarterback. The problem is that this team has not gelled. Everyone spends their time pointing fingers at Matt Cassell (sometimes rightfully so) but with a good running game even Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl. This team is a hot mess right now and have shown no signs of life. They have a great comeback win against the 0-4 Saints but everyone scores against the Saints. Baltimore's 'D' is not quite as menacing as it once was but they are still the ball-hawking team they've always been. Reed and Lewis may have lost a step but they are so good at being in position. The home field advantage is not what it once was in KC. Reference Atl 40-24 and SD 37-20. In fact, going back to last year the Chiefs are 1-6 in their last 7 home games.

I understand that this line is a little lower than most people expected and make no mistake: Vegas doesn't give gifts. I just don't see where the Chiefs can keep this game under 10 points, and that's being generous. Could they come out and throw up 40 points on Baltimore? You bet your ass they could but they would have to play a GREAT game and I haven't seen any glimpses of that yet.

Take Balt up to -10 and feel pretty comfortable with your bet. Is it guaranteed to win? Hell no, this is the NFL where the (5-8)Chiefs can beat the (13-0) GB Packers.

Balt -6.5

Quote Originally Posted by dillon24:

Balt has won the last 3 against KC by no less than 14pts.  The running game is the key factor here.. If they feed Charles non-stop like 40 carries they can win this game outright, I predicted an outright KC win last week before they played the browns

Best of luck to you. I just don't see Charles gaining enough yards to get himself 40 carries this week. Ray Rice is also averaging over 5 yds per carry giving Flacco the opportunity to throw the ball downfield on play-action (leads the league with 28 attempts over 20 yards). If Berry has to creep up to help stop Rice then Torrey will have many opportunities for deep balls. Losing Carr at corner devastated the Chiefs secondary. Flowers is a decent #2 corner but can't cover #1 receivers.

Dillion....U live here (Maryland) you hate our team,you always think they'll lose...There gonna fuck the Chiefs hard,like they always do,extra prep,dominant up front on both sides of the ball...Defense once Suggs returns,1 month,will be nastier...Watch....

I don't hate them. Just know they play down to their competition alot. Last week I had the Browns +13 and couldn't of been happier with the Ravens win!!   If I was to bet on the Cheifs this week I would pray for a 3 point win LOL.. since this isn't one of the games I'll be on I'm praying for a Ravens blowout

Ravens 4-18 as RF of back to back straight up wins..

But 9-1 ATS with extra rest...31-13....Birds...

Ravens 0-4 ats against last 4 teams with losing record

LoL but you can find trends each way so I try not to rely to heavily upon them