Games
San Francisco 49ers +3.5 (-115) at Los Angeles Rams
Good value on the 49ers, who beat Los Angeles in both games this year, taking their win streak against the Rams up to six games. Obviously both teams are coming in hot, but this inflated line seem like a reflection of the Rams’ flashy win over Brady/Tampa, while the 49ers struggled to eke out a win in the frozen tundra of Green Bay. The Rams ranked 5th in passing yards this year behind the unstoppable Cooper Kupp, but also ranked 5th in interceptions behind the not-always-reliable Matt Stafford (who threw a pair of interceptions in both games against the 49ers this year). Meanwhile, the league’s best H-back Deebo Samuel connected for 3 TD’s over the two games with the Rams, accounting for 140 and 133 scrimmage yards in each. On the ground, the Rams rushing offense ranked 25th this year (partly due to their air superiority), while the 49ers ranked sixth in rushing defense. Good spot for the 49ers as larger than a field goal underdog.
This appears to be a very favorable weekend for 6-point teasers, with the Chiefs -1, Bengals +13, and 49ers +9.5 all representing fine options. I prefer the Chiefs/49ers combo, as the blowout potential seems larger in the Chiefs/Bengals game than in 49ers/Rams. I also think both underdog moneyline parlays are live, both Bengals/49ers and Bengals/Bengals (i.e. straight through the Super Bowl). The Bengals/49ers combo is currently paying around 8/1 odds, while the moneyline parlay is generally a more useful tool than betting a regular Super Bowl future bet (when making one this late in the season). I would guess the Bengals/Bengals combo might approach 10/1 odds, particularly if the Chiefs click up to -7.5 points this weekend.