Bovada odds - Lot of value on the +325 on NO, we have no idea how long we'll be in this mess for.
Given that a vaccine might not be ready for another year, isnt NO a great bet? Am I missing something? I get this will likely get better by September but on this pace there is a chance there will be no sports for the rest of the year.
Given that a vaccine might not be ready for another year, isnt NO a great bet? Am I missing something? I get this will likely get better by September but on this pace there is a chance there will be no sports for the rest of the year.
yes, unless something out of the ordinary happens, a vaccine won't be here until well after the season would normally start. and at the rate people are being tested here and the poor information that is being distributed to people, this thing is going to last for a while. also, the reports of how the doctors and hospitals do not have the equipment they need is bad now, but that's going to make things a lot worse once we get near the peak, and we aren't even close to the peak. obviously, it's hard to predict these things but i would have the no side at closer to even money. i don't have that many accounts right now, not at bovada, but i'm going to see if i can find this bet.
yes, unless something out of the ordinary happens, a vaccine won't be here until well after the season would normally start. and at the rate people are being tested here and the poor information that is being distributed to people, this thing is going to last for a while. also, the reports of how the doctors and hospitals do not have the equipment they need is bad now, but that's going to make things a lot worse once we get near the peak, and we aren't even close to the peak. obviously, it's hard to predict these things but i would have the no side at closer to even money. i don't have that many accounts right now, not at bovada, but i'm going to see if i can find this bet.
there was a widely cited study that said 18 months is the time frame for us to get past this. so, i think that's reasonable. once there is a vaccine, which there should be in 12 to 18 months, things should return to relative normality.
but's it's a lot more complicated than that and pretty interesting. the thing about it is until there's a vaccine (and even though it's still going to cause problems but maybe no more than the regular flu), all of this social distancing doesn't address the problem of the virus. it addresses the problem of our ability to deal with the ramifications of the virus. not sure what people think social distancing does, but it doesn't eliminate the virus. it basically spreads out the infection rate so the hospitals and doctors don't get completely overrun. right now, it's critically important because this country is embarrassingly ill prepared to deal with it from information to testing to medical personnel to equipment. pretty much in every way. so, if this thing continues as its projected, given how badly we've fucked things up so far, we are about to hit a major spike in infections with no way to deal with it.
so, the question really is, how do we want the virus to hit us. if we keep fucking up, it peaks earlier. like maybe in a month or two. the good news is more people get it quicker so we hit herd immunity sooner. of course, that's only good if you get it, which you likely will and you get through it. obviously, the bad part is if you get it and you have a hard time with it, you may be fucked because our system will be massively overrun and the chances of getting quality treatment are significantly reduced.
the alternative, the social distancing alternative, is everyone goes into isolation, infection rates continue but are way down and only gradually increase which gives our medical system more time and space to treat a lesser number of people sooner. the good part with that is if you get it in the next couple of months and have a hard time, your chances of getting proper treatment increases. the bad part with this option is the virus will last much longer which means social distancing will have to last longer. of course, the good part of that is if we do this long enough and the infection rate never spikes out of control, maybe we can keep it manageable until there's a vaccine.
so what does all of that mean for the bet. i don't think this country is capable of the kind of social distancing necessary to "flatten the curve" enough to push this out to a yar or more and also not completely overrun the medical system. there are still people who think this is a hoax or doesn't affect young people and the number of people being tested in this country is criminally low. the level of incompetence is truly a thing to behold.
there was a widely cited study that said 18 months is the time frame for us to get past this. so, i think that's reasonable. once there is a vaccine, which there should be in 12 to 18 months, things should return to relative normality.
but's it's a lot more complicated than that and pretty interesting. the thing about it is until there's a vaccine (and even though it's still going to cause problems but maybe no more than the regular flu), all of this social distancing doesn't address the problem of the virus. it addresses the problem of our ability to deal with the ramifications of the virus. not sure what people think social distancing does, but it doesn't eliminate the virus. it basically spreads out the infection rate so the hospitals and doctors don't get completely overrun. right now, it's critically important because this country is embarrassingly ill prepared to deal with it from information to testing to medical personnel to equipment. pretty much in every way. so, if this thing continues as its projected, given how badly we've fucked things up so far, we are about to hit a major spike in infections with no way to deal with it.
so, the question really is, how do we want the virus to hit us. if we keep fucking up, it peaks earlier. like maybe in a month or two. the good news is more people get it quicker so we hit herd immunity sooner. of course, that's only good if you get it, which you likely will and you get through it. obviously, the bad part is if you get it and you have a hard time with it, you may be fucked because our system will be massively overrun and the chances of getting quality treatment are significantly reduced.
the alternative, the social distancing alternative, is everyone goes into isolation, infection rates continue but are way down and only gradually increase which gives our medical system more time and space to treat a lesser number of people sooner. the good part with that is if you get it in the next couple of months and have a hard time, your chances of getting proper treatment increases. the bad part with this option is the virus will last much longer which means social distancing will have to last longer. of course, the good part of that is if we do this long enough and the infection rate never spikes out of control, maybe we can keep it manageable until there's a vaccine.
so what does all of that mean for the bet. i don't think this country is capable of the kind of social distancing necessary to "flatten the curve" enough to push this out to a yar or more and also not completely overrun the medical system. there are still people who think this is a hoax or doesn't affect young people and the number of people being tested in this country is criminally low. the level of incompetence is truly a thing to behold.
so, if you look at the charts in this article, we aren't exaclty on the do nothing line, but we are pretty close. maybe closer to the green line. (See chart #2 of this article. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/?truid=271e7f5b34c738c409cfe8a9d8d0f582&utm_source=engagement_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=site_visitor.unpaid.engagement&utm_content=3.18.subs). i think that means we're looking at a peak in june/july but the medical system will be overrun well into august. i don't see them holding on to the normal nfl schedule when things are going to get really bad when training camp is supposed to be underway. now, looking at the chart, it looks pretty good for september, but people aren't going to be referencing this chart. in real time, it's going to be very ugly and look like a complete shitshow. that'll be the time things get pushed back, in my opinion. i haven't bet it yet as i don't like futures and i don't like these kinds of bets, but at those numbers, the season not starting the weekend of september 13 looks good to me.
so, if you look at the charts in this article, we aren't exaclty on the do nothing line, but we are pretty close. maybe closer to the green line. (See chart #2 of this article. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/?truid=271e7f5b34c738c409cfe8a9d8d0f582&utm_source=engagement_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=site_visitor.unpaid.engagement&utm_content=3.18.subs). i think that means we're looking at a peak in june/july but the medical system will be overrun well into august. i don't see them holding on to the normal nfl schedule when things are going to get really bad when training camp is supposed to be underway. now, looking at the chart, it looks pretty good for september, but people aren't going to be referencing this chart. in real time, it's going to be very ugly and look like a complete shitshow. that'll be the time things get pushed back, in my opinion. i haven't bet it yet as i don't like futures and i don't like these kinds of bets, but at those numbers, the season not starting the weekend of september 13 looks good to me.
Players line up quite close to each other on the line of scrimmage which makes spreading ANY bacteria or viruses lethally easy. A tackle pile is even more dangerous.
If the NFL insists on starting the 2020 season on time, the players should unanimously say, "HELL, NO!"
The 2020 season should NOT start on time. I just hope the 2021 season is able to start on time safely and that fans don't feel threatened in the stadium.
Players line up quite close to each other on the line of scrimmage which makes spreading ANY bacteria or viruses lethally easy. A tackle pile is even more dangerous.
If the NFL insists on starting the 2020 season on time, the players should unanimously say, "HELL, NO!"
The 2020 season should NOT start on time. I just hope the 2021 season is able to start on time safely and that fans don't feel threatened in the stadium.
DBW, very true. also, it's not just the players. each nfl team employs hundreds of people. i just don't see us in a position where it's ok to have 300 - 500 people going to work for a single organization in september, if you look at the coronavirus infection charts
DBW, very true. also, it's not just the players. each nfl team employs hundreds of people. i just don't see us in a position where it's ok to have 300 - 500 people going to work for a single organization in september, if you look at the coronavirus infection charts
There is not a SINGLE spectator sport that will be safe until there is a vaccine.
NOTHING should come back. No NBA. No MLB. No Football. No performing arts. NOTHING.
How comfortable would you be in a 70,000 seat stadium that is packed to the gills for the NFL opener?
There is not a SINGLE spectator sport that will be safe until there is a vaccine.
NOTHING should come back. No NBA. No MLB. No Football. No performing arts. NOTHING.
How comfortable would you be in a 70,000 seat stadium that is packed to the gills for the NFL opener?
I think that the NFL will start on time. China started social distancing in late Jan and now they are back to normal with their basketball league starting in April. We started our social distancing last week. In addition, our doctors are the best in the world which helps. With us having access to quicker testing and different drugs being tested, it gives me room for optimism on things getting back to normal. With the weather getting warmer that will significantly slow down the spread of the virus which will buy our hospitals time. I could see them having games with limited fans but I don’t see them having no games. If there was the possibility of season being delayed they wouldn’t have started the league year on time
I think that the NFL will start on time. China started social distancing in late Jan and now they are back to normal with their basketball league starting in April. We started our social distancing last week. In addition, our doctors are the best in the world which helps. With us having access to quicker testing and different drugs being tested, it gives me room for optimism on things getting back to normal. With the weather getting warmer that will significantly slow down the spread of the virus which will buy our hospitals time. I could see them having games with limited fans but I don’t see them having no games. If there was the possibility of season being delayed they wouldn’t have started the league year on time
I’ll say this though. You won’t see guys trying to play thru the flu/sickness by taking IV treatments anymore. If a player has an flu symptoms they will be out for 1-2 weeks
I’ll say this though. You won’t see guys trying to play thru the flu/sickness by taking IV treatments anymore. If a player has an flu symptoms they will be out for 1-2 weeks
Wishful thinking...2020 will be forever known as The Chinese Virus cancelling all pro sports
Wishful thinking...2020 will be forever known as The Chinese Virus cancelling all pro sports
One thing I could see the NFL doing is cancelling the London games and having them played at the designated home team stadium. UK seems to be behind us in regards to testing and it is likely to be worse Over there than here
One thing I could see the NFL doing is cancelling the London games and having them played at the designated home team stadium. UK seems to be behind us in regards to testing and it is likely to be worse Over there than here
i wouldn't trust any reports from china. it makes no sense that a country of that size could have gone from a complete shitshow to no deaths in a short period of time. and remember, social distancing does not stop the virus or stop people dying from it. it slows the virus from spreading so our hospitals don't get overrun. also, we aren't social distancing. not really even close. many people are, but many people aren't.
i wouldn't trust any reports from china. it makes no sense that a country of that size could have gone from a complete shitshow to no deaths in a short period of time. and remember, social distancing does not stop the virus or stop people dying from it. it slows the virus from spreading so our hospitals don't get overrun. also, we aren't social distancing. not really even close. many people are, but many people aren't.
actually, i should amend that. social distancing doesn't stop the virus but it does mean fewer people will die from it because if we lower the infection rate and spread it out over time, it means more people can get into hospitals and get treatment I.e. S. Kora) as opposed to a ton of people getting it in a short period of time and our hospitals and medical personnel have no way of treating many of them (i.e. Italy).
actually, i should amend that. social distancing doesn't stop the virus but it does mean fewer people will die from it because if we lower the infection rate and spread it out over time, it means more people can get into hospitals and get treatment I.e. S. Kora) as opposed to a ton of people getting it in a short period of time and our hospitals and medical personnel have no way of treating many of them (i.e. Italy).
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