thoughts from the pig sty on sac@orlando

i have been interested in this sacramento@ orlando game since i saw the opening line of sacramento - 2 1/2...and this morning it had moved to orlando -1... the total has been set at 206..
both these teams have some travel issues...actually sac-town probably bussed over from miami on the florida turnpike..got to orlando before the magic did.... i dont know how the tough loss to miami will affect a young team, mentally..orlando has to be excited winning a fairly easy game on the road....sac-town has had only 3 home games since jan 26and heads home after this for 5 of their next 6 at home, and im thinking  maybe a let down and  a sigh of relief that this mammoth road trip is coming to a conclusion...
total is 206, which seems high for a magic team missing nelson and davis...but scanning over their past results, i see 6 games where the total has been 200 or higher, and they are 5-1 over in those games.. however all of those games were against teams that tend to have high scores, except for atlanta, the one under..
sac-town routinely has totals set over 200 and if i counted right, they are 15-5-1 to the over in those games...rather than trying to determine which team has an edge in the game. statistically and because of both teams having some fatigue issues, i think over  the total may be the safest play in this game..
comments and opinions appreciated.

This is a tricky one, especially being a B2B for both.

Damned pig ...

if you were shocked... then i was , lets say, mentally hogtied!!!

 then play the total!!...not that i am sure it will go over, but im leaning that way...

Over it is then Pig 

I cant sleep farkk and tommorrow will go bycling so cant watch the game .... Damneddddd 

i like the over in this game....Sacramento gets into a lot of scoring wars and they should be able to put up points against a weak defense such as Orlando....Hard to trust Orlando putting up pts with who they have right now, but they showed up big yesterday on the road, so why not tonight at home against a struggling defense like the Kings....GL 

Betting orlando over

 HOOOLLLDDDDD OOONNNNN LONK!!!!!! dont go financially overbord......i LEAN to the over, i havent made up my mind yet...thats why i posted...to get some opinions from others, who may be thinking differently...i like to be challenged in the way i think, maybe im overlooking something...after all,  I AM A DUMBA$$ PIG!!!!

 this was the first thing i thought of..melo..and now im thinking, if thats the case, maybe sac + the pts is the right side... and the over ??

 thanks and i read your post on sac dominance in the paint.. i tend to agree...leaning more and more to sac and the over..

yeah, thats the problem with this "hobby".. you zig and afterwards, you wish you woulda zagged...

nice write up pig... probably going to hold off till half... i just dont see this flying over.. i could be wrong.. anyways g luck with your pick.. see you at the midway mark.

just a lean to the over monsta....i probably am starting to feel more strongly about sac +1....but looking at previous sac totals in this situation, i couldnt take the under... ive put nothing in at this point....just rollin around in the mud with it!!

SC-TOWN LAST 3 B2B ON THE ROAD THEY LOST TO DENVER BY 28  NY BY 39 AND DALLAS BY 23.

true that puck....but you cant compare the magic offense with any of those 3 teams...orlando in a B2B as well.. AND denver had 2 days rest before that game, dallas had the night before off.....and the knicks had played at home the night before and had 3 of the 4 prior nights off.. it matters that sac was in a B2B and those other teams werent, except for the knicks that were relatively well rested.. gotta look at all the data...

thx buddy

want to start with this pig, i appreciate your comment on the other thread and you're a very respectable poster and asset to this community.

as for this game, both teams are horrible to start off with. top that off with $hitty teams come $hitty play, meaning more turnovers and points off turnovers (or blown layups and dunks lol). yesterday's orlando/philly game was bad basketball, with the magic putting up only 18 points in the 1st and 21 in the 3rd. Vucevic managed to grab 19 rebounds, but he was checked by Spencer Hawes, a terrible rebounder and disgrace to centers in basketball, and Lavoy Allen, a below average to average rebounder. tonight, it'll be Demarcus, Jason Thompson (great rebounder, but that's about it), Chuck Hayes, and Patrick Patterson, above average to average rebounders with 2 on the court at a time. I expect less second chance buckets from the magic, dropping their score. Also, magic were 5/13 from 3 pointers, so majority of their scoring was beating a weak inside of philly.

As for the kings, they are tired after keeping it a close games before getting smoked by the heat in 2OT. in 5 minutes, with a team they kept it tied for 53 minutes, they lost by 12. that is demoralizing for this young group of guys to just lose one out of their tight grasps. they were 14/27 from 3, but remember they played the Heat, and the only way to beat the heat is to rebound (40 rebounds with 14/40 offensive rebounds) and make the 3. The Magic defended the 3 well last night until late, so I expect the numbers to correct themselves for the kings. I also feel that kings will win the rebounding battle as they have many bigs that are good rebounders.

206.5 is a lot of points to reach. Vegas is predicting a final score of Kings 102.5 Magic 104. Get out of here. I'm expecting a lot of missed shots and overall bad basketball with lots of turnovers, missed 3s and long jumpers, and boneheaded plays. these are 2 bad teams playing a meaningless game. combine this with the trouble they had getting to orlando, and i am heavily leaning on the under. It is a square play as I feel consensus would be on the under and the line has now risen to 207 now, but even the squares gotta win one.

Plus say if the kings are facing a blowout and they only put up 90 points, that means you need 118 from orlando to cover. do you trust orlando to drop 118?
flip this around and say magic only put up 90, do you expect the kings to cover by putting up 118 after they put up 129 in 2OT running up and down the court vs the heat (112 in regulation)?

I wouldn't touch the spread unless those i follow heavily advise to, and even then i would be wary of putting money on such a $hitty team either way.
But I love the under.

also, this is a non national game, meaning on local tv in a small market. i feel when watching this game there is less stoppage of time with tv timeouts and more just letting them play with the clock running more.
do the kings get up for this game like they did playing in front of a packed house like miami? do the magic even get up for this game? or is it just another day at work as both teams play it out.

metta, much thanks to you my friend....all your points are valid and will be well considered...i may very well flip and take the under after reading your thoughts. AND i really appreciate the time you took to lay that out. you didnt have to go that far and you  did.... that means a lot to me....thanks buddy