The Falcon's Nest (system plays 2009-2010)

Do you discuss your system off line?

here are the plays for wed nov 4

Dallas/New Orleans Under 190 (-1.10) (65.55%)

Florida Panthers (-1.25) ML OT included (62.95%)

Dallas/Calgary Over 5.5 (-1.25) (63.45%)

all plays to win 2.50 units

site has been having trouble all day.... i am The Falcon, the originator of this system, Shark does a fine job posting the plays for me...

everything seems to be in order, best of luck tonight

Falcon

sometime over the summer, i developed a very good and very up to date Power Rating Program... it could be much like what you may have developed, however it is very current and is very different as teams play at home and away... this could be where it differs from something that you may have come up with...

however after i developed it, i began to dabble with some plays and posted a few threads here at covers with mixed results... i knew that i was on to something but did not have the complete product...

then around the first to 2nd week of october, i hit upon the missing piece, something i like to call the "Probability" factor... this is very unique to anything that ive seen in handicapping and i dont care to discuss it, in an open forum..  at this same time, i also quit laying anything over (-1.30)(except for a few exceptions)..... these 2 changes made all the difference in world..

i began to play the finished product on oct 15..... i immediately went on a (15-2) run.... it was at this point that i met Shark10 via the internet and he began to post the plays.... we have since went 32-20 in this thread.... which brings us to where we are now..

i also believe that i have the best money management program going and its very simple..

1. play all wagers for (2.5%) of bankroll

2. raise or lower wagers as bankroll increases or decreases by 25%

its as simple as that and most will not do it...

just thought id ramble a little... im beginning work on a commodity option trading system, so i wont be around alot but if you would like to ask me a question, simply PM me here at covers and ill answer asap.

our goal is simply to stay at or above 57.14% forever, playing around 100 plays monthly (give or take 25 in either direction), while laying an average of (-1.10).. simple as that.

all the best

Falcon

i believe he is stating that if you have 1500 BR each bet should be 2.5% which equals $37.50 and adjust that amount to your BR each time you place a bet

Thinker,

Just want to say thank you for posting these plays.   Not sure your method, but regardless it is much appreciated!!!  I will send you a pm request.

Thanks

it is my opinion that 2.5% if the optimal wager size for my system. i think 5% would be too aggressive...

dont forget im wagering to win 2.5% and not risking 2.5%....

UGA: send the PM, when you want..

v8 mustang, that is up to you.. i no longer play any parlays or teasers..

i have set something up for the long haul, it merely comes down to now placing the wagers..

Heads UP: i am completely thru with baseball until april of 2010.. this system works very well for baseball. i am 100% satisfied with my complete football program as well as my NHL program. The NBA is running at about 65% capacity (effectiveness)... I simply need more data... Do not expect much college hoops at the beginning, my plays will be sporadic at the start.. I will be in full gear in college hoops once we get to conference play..

any more questions are welcomed.

Falcon

1. play all wagers for (2.5%) of bankroll

2. raise or lower wagers as bankroll increases or decreases by 25%

its as simple as that and most will not do it...

Falcon,

How do you formulate that on a spreadsheet or do you manually keep track of when it hits 25% of your bankroll to up the unit. I think by doing this, it will let you flat-bet until you hit the next increment. It's a great method. Any information is appreciated. Thanks.

kelly criterion formula    %bet = edge/odds

57% - 43% - 4%(vig) =10% edge

55% - 45% - 4%(vig) =5% edge

assuming odds at .9 and figuring an average 4 plays

per night see no reason you couldn't go 4%/play.

thx guys for the comments..

i think a big part is keeping this simple and boring, if i can say that..

i manually keep track of my overall bankroll.. i raise or lower bets at 25% increments... simple as that..

you can do it on a day by day basis as well using the kelly criterion.. whichever works best for you...

4% is a little too agressive for me but thats just me personally. i want to be around for a very long time, so 2.5% works the best for me... 1% is not enough 5% is too much... somewhere in the middle works just fine..

goal #1 remains to stay at or above 57.14% forever, if i can achieve this, everyone else will fall in place..

Falcon