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The best methods to bet the NBA

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by demoman:

Interesting points, thanks

For halftime totals I use a 12% rule for example cavs tonight game total 190, first half 95 halftime score 126 total set for 2nd half 94. 126 was way over 12% I took the under for 2nd half.

This is something everyone should take a look at.  Halfs are simimlar although tougher but really same concept.  This is something I have used for years.  When a team goes over 1st half easy 2nd half under should be the play.
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by McAlpine:

OK, Question regarding second half betting. Let's take a variation on your example:

Team A is laying 4 points to Team B. Team A is ahead by 10 at the half. Now Team B will not be getting points. The oddsmakers will probably put a line like Team B -2 second half.

Now you are still getting a better game line than you would have gotten betting before the game started, as Team B can lose by 8 and still push. The game line would have given them a push only if they lost by 4.

Do you take the bet with Team B and take the better line, or are you just looking or situations where B is GETTING points at the half?

Personally, I look at this situation as even better, as the oddsmaker is calculating a reversion toward the original line.

Interested in your comments.

One other thing, the 2nd half line for this game would not be -2.  Most likely the 2nd half line would be -6 or -7 at the most.  You have to know this if you really want to be succesful.  Don't worry you will get a feel and experience over the years will help.  After a while as soon as the half ends, a second later you will know what the lines will be and than work off that to find value.  The last thing the book wants is for a team to win the first half and second half of the NBA.  Go back and check for yourself, if you are experienced NBA gambler you should know just by the halftime score what the 2nd half line will be and work off of that for research.
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel:

This seems to be lost a lot of bettors - sometimes the best bet is NO BET. If you can't find an edge, there is no reason to make a bet.

As stated in my original post patiece.  There are so many games each night and half plays there is never a reason to force anything.  I never force or if I'm unsure I pass.  I didn't bet the NFL yesterday at all or even watched since I had no opinion on the games.  I looked and came up with a pass on both games, if you cannot pass you will not win.
 
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Posted: #79

Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

As stated in my original post patiece.  There are so many games each night and half plays there is never a reason to force anything.  I never force or if I'm unsure I pass.  I didn't bet the NFL yesterday at all or even watched since I had no opinion on the games.  I looked and came up with a pass on both games, if you cannot pass you will not win.

 

Best advise in this thread but I agree with Most of rest as well.

 
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Posted: #80

Quote Originally Posted by walkingb123:

My experience in betting the NBA is to grab a good line when you see one.  Once you have some experience following NBA lines, you'll be able to predict which way the first lines available to you will move.  This is one crucial component of betting: getting the best number that you can.

Let's say we have Kings@Blazers (an example from earlier this year.  I don't remember the exact line, but this example will be pretty close). 

Opening line at Bookmaker is Kings +7.  You know that the Kings have been covering a lot of games, but not winning games straight up, so they are flying under the radar. You are interested in taking the Kings until the betting marketplace starts to take notice of them.  In addition, the Blazers are banged up and have not looked good lately, but the line doesn't reflect the reality of what should be a pretty close final score.  You think +7 is a really good bet.

Since you have been paying attention to the way the lines move, you know that on your sportsbook the early bettors (usually very smart guys) are going to take the Kings, because they sniff out the value in +7 the way you have, so there will not be any +7's left.  You take the Kings +7.  Sure enough, in a couple of hours the Kings are already +6.5, and tomorrow they are +6.

Waiting until just before tipoff to take the Kings in this situation would be like waiting until the late afternoon on Black Friday to leave your house to buy a computer that is in high demand.

The wise guys will have bought all of the +7's out there, so the best you can do more than a day later, at tipoff, is probably a +6.5 or a +6.  Early bird gets the worm (the line value) in this case.  You can still buy your way to +7, but if you do you are paying a premium to do so.

The wiseguys would take the +7 because it's the most important key number in the NBA.  Why 7?  7 points is 3 possesions and inside a minute teams stop fouling not like in college where team will be down 10 with 20 seconds and still foul.  This explains why second halfs in college are usually minimum 7 points higher on the 2nd half vs the NBA where the 2nd half total is lower than the first half the majority of the time.  Now if I'm in this spot I can take the +6 but I don't love it so I pass.  Than I root for the Blazers to be up 6 at the half and than the line will most likely be -1.5 and get 1.5 points free of the game line.  If the line were to be a pick 2nd half or -.5 the book feels Sac will come back and cover.  By reading the 2nd half you can tell what the book feels.  Doesn't always mean they are right but what their thoughts on the game are.

 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by makaveli23:

Thanks very much for the time.  Posting all these thoughts and ideas is appreciated by all of covers.  More individuals should take the time and post like this.  I do agree with some of your points but I did stop reading when you stated that roster matchups mean nothing to you.  It seems everyone always capps the NBA strictly with public perception and consensus in mind which I think is bogus.  Basically what all you individuals are saying is that if the Lakers were - 1 over the Bucks at home everyone would bet the Bucks because the line is fishy?  Give me a fuckin break, everyone, their mother, 3 donkeys and their dog would be on the Lakers and they would win.  In the NBA matchups and situational capping are more important then public perception...in MY honest and humble opinion.  Good info, thanks.


Hello Mak, obviously you know your shit and take this serious.  So I challenge you to take it a step further.  Several years ago I tracked the 2nd half and these situations myself.  Now I'm not saying to write down every game but if your in front of your computer watching the games log in and write the 2nd half lines as often as you can.  If you miss the games no big deal, you can call up most big offshore books and call them up and ask for the closing number on the NBA 2nd half last night.  They will check and tell you.  Write it down and keep track yourself.  Make a log to see how these situational plays work out the next day.  No shortcuts guys, you want to be succesful and make serious dough, guess what gotta put the work in.  It can be tedious but life is tedious.  Good luck  Mak.
 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by SolidCapper:

This thread seems fine and dandy, but when u use it and your 1st 2 games lose, most will do away with it.  And I think those 80 or 70% hitting rate is BS.  And I've won betting on -120 lines 2nd half lines all the time, but mostly on football, so I'm not sure if this applies to football.
I wouldn't bet -120 at gunpoint but goodluck.  I would simply pass on the number and watch something else.  You shouldn't look at it as one game, ask, would I win if I took this spot over a 100 times?  At -120 the answer is no as it will be extremely hard to show a profit at -120.  At -110 is tough enough let alone at -120 and is what the books want you to bet.
 
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Posted: #83

Good stuff 165.  Really enjoyed reading all of your thoughts regarding the subject.

 
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Posted: #84
THIS IS THE BEST POST I'VE EVER READ OFF COVERS. I totally agree with everything you are saying. Hats off to you player!
 
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Posted: #85
165yds, how do you mean when the line goes down in your tip?
can you provide an example. Thanks!
 
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Posted: #86

Star player out:

Michael Redd not expected to play Monday against the Suns. (Injured left knee.)

Milwaukee +9 -104 ?

 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by cisco:

Star player out:

Michael Redd not expected to play Monday against the Suns. (Injured left knee.)

Milwaukee +9 -104 ?

Michael Redd is far from a star player.

I think what 165 means is a player like LeBron, Kobe, Wade.  These players all have a reputation that they carry their team.  Example... Without the presence of Wade in the lineup, the Heat can't possibly compete against the Lakers tonight.  That kind of thing.

I think the same theory can apply to when a star player also comes back from an injury.  People automatically assume that because a team like Indiana has Granger back, that they'll be a better team.  Just look back to earlier in the week.  Granger makes his return against the lowly Timberwolves and the lowly Timberwolves win.

 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

This is something everyone should take a look at.  Halfs are simimlar although tougher but really same concept.  This is something I have used for years.  When a team goes over 1st half easy 2nd half under should be the play.


This is kinda nonsense too.  Look at the NFL.  Again, I know this is NBA forum.  Packers vs Arizona Cardinals, for example.  1st half went OVER, so why would you bet UNDER in the 2nd half??  In fact, if you bet UNDER, you would've been 38 points off as the O/U was set at 24, and they scored 62 pts in the 2nd half.  I know this is just 1 example, but there are tons of other examples, if you look at all the games.
 
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Posted: #89
I have a question.So if KG is out tonight ,I should take the 4.5 with the Hawks?
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by NorthEndDan:

I have a question.So if KG is out tonight ,I should take the 4.5 with the Hawks?

KG has been out for more than 3 games, so it should be a "no play".  LOL.  I think you apply this "formula" to the 1st 2 games he's out, but I'm skeptical.
 
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Posted: #91
If u think Michael Redd is a star player, then apply it to the Bucks +9 tonite vs the Suns.
 
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Posted: #92
superb thread 165, just want to add my input as well.
the books have experts analyzing matchups so unless you know something they don't, you wont beat them that way. 
Even though i'm new to covers Ive been studying lines for years and 90% of my bets culminate from seeing a line first thing and instinctively knowing there's a play, then I may do some additional research to confirm this.
I love backing any half decent home team in any sport thats down a ton at half time in a game they have an interest in winning, they will play to get close, the other team will play conservative.
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by mr_bollox:

superb thread 165, just want to add my input as well.
the books have experts analyzing matchups so unless you know something they don't, you wont beat them that way. 
Even though i'm new to covers Ive been studying lines for years and 90% of my bets culminate from seeing a line first thing and instinctively knowing there's a play, then I may do some additional research to confirm this.
I love backing any half decent home team in any sport thats down a ton at half time in a game they have an interest in winning, they will play to get close, the other team will play conservative.

This didn't work in the Pats vs Ravens game.  Ravens kicked ass in the 1st half, and they continued kicking ass in the 2nd half.
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by SolidCapper:


This didn't work in the Pats vs Ravens game.  Ravens kicked ass in the 1st half, and they continued kicking ass in the 2nd half.

sure, thats one example where it didnt work and like all things in life,nothing works 100% of the time, 
 
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Posted: #95
expert
 
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Posted: #96
good stuff 165, this will be my guide to the rest of the 2009-2010 NBA season. awesome thread
 
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Posted: #97
It also happened in Jets game.  Jets kicked ass in 1st half, and they continued kicking the Bengals' ass in the 2nd half.
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by mr_bollox:

superb thread 165, just want to add my input as well.
the books have experts analyzing matchups so unless you know something they don't, you wont beat them that way. 
Even though i'm new to covers Ive been studying lines for years and 90% of my bets culminate from seeing a line first thing and instinctively knowing there's a play, then I may do some additional research to confirm this.
I love backing any half decent home team in any sport thats down a ton at half time in a game they have an interest in winning, they will play to get close, the other team will play conservative.

So basically if you used this in the NFL this past weekend, you would've been 0-2 with the Bengals and Patriots which basically means you lost a ton of $$.
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by SolidCapper:


So basically if you used this in the NFL this past weekend, you would've been 0-2 with the Bengals and Patriots which basically means you lost a ton of $$.

er ok, do u take everything people say so literally?
 Its a "general" rule ok. I dont use it all the time and for your info had no HT bets in any sport this weekend
you sound like the sort of guy who would bet big on black at roulette when there had been a sequence of eight reds.
 
 
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Good Stuff.
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