The best methods to bet the NBA

My experience in betting the NBA is to grab a good line when you see one.  Once you have some experience following NBA lines, you'll be able to predict which way the first lines available to you will move.  This is one crucial component of betting: getting the best number that you can.

Let's say we have Kings@Blazers (an example from earlier this year.  I don't remember the exact line, but this example will be pretty close). 

Opening line at Bookmaker is Kings +7.  You know that the Kings have been covering a lot of games, but not winning games straight up, so they are flying under the radar. You are interested in taking the Kings until the betting marketplace starts to take notice of them.  In addition, the Blazers are banged up and have not looked good lately, but the line doesn't reflect the reality of what should be a pretty close final score.  You think +7 is a really good bet.

Since you have been paying attention to the way the lines move, you know that on your sportsbook the early bettors (usually very smart guys) are going to take the Kings, because they sniff out the value in +7 the way you have, so there will not be any +7's left.  You take the Kings +7.  Sure enough, in a couple of hours the Kings are already +6.5, and tomorrow they are +6.

Waiting until just before tipoff to take the Kings in this situation would be like waiting until the late afternoon on Black Friday to leave your house to buy a computer that is in high demand.

The wise guys will have bought all of the +7's out there, so the best you can do more than a day later, at tipoff, is probably a +6.5 or a +6.  Early bird gets the worm (the line value) in this case.  You can still buy your way to +7, but if you do you are paying a premium to do so.

walkingb123, good post.

Sure, you always want to grab the best line available to have a chance to win. But for me, I rather analyze the game the best that I can and wait until the final mins before tipoff.

You might I have taken Kings +7 in the situation, and for me, if the line is +6 before tipoff and I still find an edge with that line, then I am going to play it. If not, then I pass.

People might think that there is no value or edge just before tipoff, but if that's the case, I would be bankrupt and never win in this business.

alot of this info is insightful. thanks. some i'll throw out, some i'm already using or will use.

I put bookmarked this so I don't lose it.

Thanks for taking the time 165yds.

Good post.

Interesting points, thanks

For halftime totals I use a 12% rule for example cavs tonight game total 190, first half 95 halftime score 126 total set for 2nd half 94. 126 was way over 12% I took the under for 2nd half.

Sorry wrong total on the first half it was 113 getting late but thats what i use either way over or under

Thanks for sharing the concept.

BOL always.

Good info 165,and nice ass too

This thread seems fine and dandy, but when u use it and your 1st 2 games lose, most will do away with it.  And I think those 80 or 70% hitting rate is BS.  And I've won betting on -120 lines 2nd half lines all the time, but mostly on football, so I'm not sure if this applies to football.

I know this is NBA forum, but like in New England PATS game vs Ravens, star play Wes Welker is out, I thought 80% of the time that team is gonna cover, guess what , PATS lost and didn't cover.  That's why I think throwing out that 80% is BS. just sayin.....cause 80% seems like such a high percentage.  But I agree, that u have to pick your spots........

165

Man this was very useful information! I apply some of those systems already and great job for posting this stuff

people learning this sport might find it helpful

 

walkingb123

I remember that game clearly cuz i had the kings+7 but i saw that it went down from 7!

I believe I got the push but just like your perfect example: people who waited to bet on da kings late that day wouldve had a loss!! & wouldve been pissed!!!

so i agree with you 100%!!!

NBA= FIXED..... i bet it just because i like watching my favorite teams play an di like getting into the games put my advice is you must have experience... today... NJ winner, bucks L, cavs W, st. marys L, O st. W

The best way to win is to look at the thread titles in this forum. Fade anyone who uses dollar signs. The more dollar signs, the more likely they will be wrong. This is always correct 75% of the time.

i have been fallowing Covers.Com for a few years now and have made a user ID few months back this thread by far is the best thing i have ever read on here usually all u find on here is people bashing each other and stupid comments very impressive info thank u!

Get free points 2nd half- Team A is at home giving team B 10 points.  Team A is up 10 at the half.  The 2nd half line will be -2.5.  Here you have the dog getting an additional 2.5 points off the game line.  The dog will cover the 2nd half in this spot well over 70% of the time.  Why?  The book knows most of you will see the first half and see Team A win the first half and look great and perception will be that they will win the 2nd half as well.  This is the greatest sports betting angle you will find on a consistant day to day basis.  This theory works well in all halftime sports. 

What if the DOGs Lose by 15 then Fav ( -2) thru (-3.5 )  ?

-120 or -115-

It's ONLY APPLY when the LINES are not MOVING  +/- 1/2 point thru  +/-  Whole 1 point

Is there a place i can get 2nd half lines from the past to back check some of this?  Thanks...

Another one: Bet against the team that has a high profile player coming back (first game only...  maybe second if the situation in right) especially on a high profile team.  So, bet against: Den when Carmelo comes back, LAL when Gasol comes back and BOS when Garnett comes back. This worked with DET but didn't work against Bos (w/pierce and rondo coming back). 

Bet on Mil in the next game if Redd is out.

Oh yeah, WAS next game after Arenas was suspended (not the CLE game) was a BIG play.

as always good info

Thanks very much for the time.  Posting all these thoughts and ideas is appreciated by all of covers.  More individuals should take the time and post like this.  I do agree with some of your points but I did stop reading when you stated that roster matchups mean nothing to you.  It seems everyone always capps the NBA strictly with public perception and consensus in mind which I think is bogus.  Basically what all you individuals are saying is that if the Lakers were - 1 over the Bucks at home everyone would bet the Bucks because the line is fishy?  Give me a fuckin break, everyone, their mother, 3 donkeys and their dog would be on the Lakers and they would win.  In the NBA matchups and situational capping are more important then public perception...in MY honest and humble opinion.  Good info, thanks.

but you'd NEVER EVER get a line like that unless there was a major reason behind it.

imo it's a valid argument that you can prosper in this league by incorporating techniques like "reverse odds analysis", ie betting against lines that look too easy.

If you flick back through the past fortnight alone there are quite a few that stand out. (Chicago +3 at home to Orlando, Toronto pk vs SA, Philly +4 @ Denver & the Clippers as favourites over Portland and Miami and +5 vs LAL).

Mind you in each of these games there were a number of situational factors that supported each "unlikely" team to cover in each of those games (letdowns, back to backs ect)  

I'm glad someone asked this question.  Two options here and you will see that if Team A the fav loses first half they will come back and win second half a little more than 60% of the time.  Last night this trend went 4-2.  I know few days ago the team that won the first half lost the second half and went 7-1.  I love this trend as well but it will not hit as high as what I stated originally as trend 1.  I hate the word system though because system infers if it falls into a system play you blindly play it.  I never do that and use situational plays more than anything.  Something else I love is 2nd half ML so I lean towards that as well sometimes because you can get 2-1 or 3-1 very often but very hard to hit.

very nice post, appreciate the effort....

ok if I at my 2 cents? feel free to add your own improved version of these guidelines:

(a) A road favorite of -5 or greater is losing by 6 or more at halftime ..... bet the home dog getting +5 or better at halftime, they might lose the game outright, but will most likely cover the half-time spread.... 

(b) A home favorite of -5 or greater is losing by 6 or more points at halftime, bet the road-dog + points at half, PROVIDED: the home team is not known for playing better in the 2nd half (eg, don't bet against portland at halftime if they are down) AND the road team is not on the 2nd half of a back-to-back AND the road team does not have a horrible road record.