Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
2010-2011 NBA Record:
151 - 99 @ 60% for +42.1 Units
2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record:
22 - 17@ 56% for +3.3 Units
Wed 05/18
#1: Chicago Bulls -2
#2: UNDER 181.5 MIA/CHI
Hey fellas...Did another podcast.
Hope you all enjoy: Bodio's Podcast
I
think it's pretty obvious by now that Chicago Bulls are a tough
match-up for the Heat. Bulls' major strengths is exactly where Miami is
at its weakest: superstar PG; size in the post; and deep bench. Some
people might compare Bulls to the Celtics, but I'd disagree. The
defensive scheme might be similar but the personnel is very different.
I)
Rondo is a dynamic play-maker, and I truly believe that if he hadn't
gotten hurt in game 3, that series would have gone 7 games. That being
said, Rose is much better regardless.
II) From the standpoint of
'size', Celtics really missed Perkins in the playoffs. He would have
been a difference maker against a team like Miami. Without him in
there, Miami out-rebounded Boston in 4 of the 5 games of the series.
Consequently, their one loss came in game 3, when Boston had a small
edge in that department. I want to point out that Boston was 30th (last
place) in terms of ORB% this season. Bulls, were #2 in that
department. Big difference.
III) Finally depth. If a team is
given a nickname to its bench-players, aka as the 'Bench MOB', then they
must be doing 'something' right. I'll take Taj-mahal, Asik, K-Thomas,
Korver, Brewer, and Watson over Boston's bench any day of the week.
Bottom
line is that Bulls are a much better team than Boston, and
consequently, I feel they are a better team than Miami for these 3 main
reasons above.
Bulls went 3-0 against the Heat during the
regular season. Some will argue that Miami is playing much better in
the playoffs than they did in the regular season. Sure, that might be
true, but the same thing could be said about Chicago as well. Don't
believe me? Well, looking at those 3 regular-season games against
Miami, Chicago out-rebounded the Heat in all 3 (by 11 per game), had 13
more offensive boards (4.3 more per game), attempted 16 more FG's (5.3
more per game) while only shooting 2.6 less FT's on average, had the
same number of TO's, and 8 more assists. All in all, Bulls were the
better team in those meetings. That being said, all 3 of those contests
were very close, with Chicago winning all three by 8 points total. Now
in game 1 of this playoff-series, the winning margin was 'slightly'
higher. How did this happen? Well, the Bulls held a rebounding margin
of 12 and a ridiculous 19 to 6 advantage on the offensive boards. They
attempted 19 more FG's, 5 more FT's, and made 7 more 3-pointers. They
also had 12 more assists (23 to 11) and committed 7 less TO's. They
flat-out dominated the game, or as my buddy Drew likes to say, the Bulls
'dropped the hammer' on Miami. Especially in the 2nd half, when
Miami's starters just couldn't sustain the same level of intensity, due
to ineffectiveness of their bench. To me, Bulls are just a better
'team' at this point of the season, and I see no reason why I shouldn't
back them again at home.
* Bulls are 42-6 at home this season. (88%)
* Miami is 30-16 on the road. (65%)
* Bulls are 6-1 SU as a home favorite of 3 points or less. (86%)
* Miami is 2-6 SU as a road underdog of 3 points or less. (25%)
* Bulls are 6-1 SU at home in the playoffs (86%)
* Miami is 2-2 SU on the road in the playoffs (50%)
In
addition to Bulls winning, I like this game to stay under the point
total. In game 1, Miami shot 47% from the field while the Bulls shot
44%, and still the total ended up at 185. Obviously a ridiculous number
of second-chance opportunities for Chicago, was one major factor
leading to this total going over. The books actually adjusted this
total by raising it by 1. I think it's a mistake. I see Miami making
necessary adjustments to minimize the number of offensive boards for the
Bulls. They won't completely eliminate Chicago's advantage in that
area, but I'd expect Bulls to get less than 19 offensive boards in game
2. In addition, both Chicago and Miami shot a much higher percentage
from the field than one would expect from teams going up against top 5
defenses. I expect this one to be a much slower, defensive grind as
both teams will shoot in the low 40's from the field. The O/U was 4-10
in the last 14 meetings between these teams and 2-6 in the last 8 in
Chicago. LeBron said that points will be at 'premium' in this series.
Well, in game 2 they will be.
Bulls win 90-83
Good luck!
Bodio, good luck tonight!
I have a question: how come you associate with Pregame.com?
Have you seen these Google results?
SJP
Bulls -1.5 and also on the under 181. Thru in a parlay also Bulls ML, Indians, Canucks for a little fun! GL buddy 
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