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#1
Had some free time today and decided to do some research on all the games(thanks Mad_Skillz for providing the onus to do this). I thought the lines tonight were very sharp and it's shaping up as one of the more difficult evenings for bettors.
Any thoughts, criticisms, additions are always welcome.
1. Pacers/Hawks: The Pacers have lost 10 straight in Atlanta dating back to 2006. Both are on a B2B and in the top 10 for defensive efficiency, ppg allowed, FG % allowed and points per shot(PPS) allowed. Indy is the 2nd best rebounding team in the league while Atl is 22nd. Atlanta is 3rd in steals and Indy 3rd in blocks.
Atlanta shoots the three ball well, making the sixth most 3's per game. However, Indy is leading the league in 3 pt. defense(.306).
Neither team uses much pace(17th for Atl and 27th for Indy) and Indy has scored more than 93 points on the road in only 3 of 17 games.
19 of their combined 56 games have gone to OT or been decided by 4 points or less.
Leans: Indy +3.5, under 183.5, Pacer TT under 89.5.
2.Raptors/Magic: Glen Davis' absence has hurt a lot more than I expected and the Magic are reeling, losing 4 in a row. Their frontcourt can rebound well but have suffered offensively without Big Baby. The Magic defense remains solid, with last night being only the 7th time they have allowed 100 points or more all season.
Kyle Lowry is back and the Raps have been playing some very good team defense the last 7 games(allowing 91.7 ppg). Both teams on a B2B and just met 1 week ago(Toronto won 93-90). The Magic are 2-5 ATS as faves this year and this is the 2nd highest spread they've been given all year as faves. Seems a little strange to my eye. The lines seem slightly off to me, as I expected a lower total and closer spread. I think the Magic get off the schneid tonight.
Leans: Magic -4, Over 188.
3. Hornets/Bobcats: 2 of the 3 worst defensively efficient teams in the league. And 2 of the more putrid offenses as well. The Bobcats play with pace(8th), while the Hornets are dead last. The linesmakers show no respect for the Bobcats as 3.5 dogs, at home, to a six win team coming off an OT game. Wow. This is only the fourth time the Hornets have been faves and their very first time as a road fave.
The Bobcats are coming off their 2nd worst offensive showing the entire season(81 points). They average 96.3 ppg at home. They also give up 104.8 ppg. The Bobcats last 11 home games have all gone over 190 points. Though the Hornets play slow, they have gone at or over this total in 15 of their 29 games. Eric Gordon may play tonight as well.
Leans: Over 190, Bobcats +3.5
4. Cavs/Nets: Cleveland is 2nd to last in offensive efficiency and the Nets play with a slow pace. 50% of the Cavs losses have been by double digits, many of them with Varejao playing. He is still not back. Daniel Gibson is out also. The Cavs keep games close, but seemingly always fade in the 4th. Does Brooklyn deserve to be laying 8.5 points to a Kyrie Irving led squad?
Leans: Cavs +8.5, under 190
5. Wizards/Bulls: I would imagine Thibs had his say after the defensive debacle against Houston. The Bulls and Wiz are both bottom 10 in ppg scored, pace, offensive efficiency and 3 pointers made per game. Washington does not lose by 11 points or more that often(only 5 of 23 losses) and they may carry some momentum into tonight after their win yesterday. But this is a bad situational spot as the Bulls have had 3 days off to stew and perhaps carry an urge to unload on somebody.
Leans: Bulls -10.5, under 180.5
6. Nuggets/Grizzlies: Great game tonight, easily the best on paper to watch. The Grizz enter this game somewhat similar to the Bulls, losing their last two in blowout fashion. They have also already lost twice to the Nuggets. Memphis has Rudy back tonight. 12 out of 15 Memphis home games have gone under this total and all 12 of their home wins have been by 6 or greater. Denver may wear out as the game trudges along.
Leans: Memphis -6, under 195
7. Suns/Timberwolves: The Suns are 0-6 SU and ATS on B2B's this year, losing by an average of 20 points. The T-Wolves should be able to take full advantage of this team, even if Dragic plays tonight. The T-Wolves have a sturdy D and are top 10 in defensive efficiency, ppg allowed, FG% and 3 pt%.
Leans: T-Wolves -8.5, under 195
8. Thunder/Rockets: The Rockets are turning into the Warriors and Suns teams from 5-6 years ago. All offense with matador defense. Being on a B2B will lead to even more porous D, imo. OKC is the perfect team to fly with them. Houston is 28-4 in December, at home, since 2008.
Leans: Houston +4.5, over 213.
9. Heat/Bucks: The Bucks have played Miami pretty well since the Big 3 arrived, going 3-4 SU and taking them to OT earlier this year. The Bucks D has also stepped it up this year, being in the top 10 in ppg allowed, defensive efficiency, FG% and 3 pt%. I was truly surprised at Milwaukee's defensive numbers on closer examination. The Bucks have gone over 200 total points only 6 times, in regulation play. Miami's D had a letdown last night and I don't expect a repeat against a mainly jump shooting Bucks team which only makes 17 FT's per game.
Leans: Under 200.5, Bucks +4.5
10. Sixers/Blazers: Both slower paced teams with good PG's. The Sixers tend to lose by more than 3 points(15 of 16 losses) and are going into a tough place to play on a B2B. Aldridge and Lillard will likely be too much.
Leans: Blazers -3, over 190.
11. Celtics/Warriors: I have backed the Celtics twice this year and been burned badly both times. Except for beating Chicago early in the season and OKC in Boston, the Celtics do not have any other quality wins. They are just not playing with any defensive intensity and Rondo has not stepped up his play either, which he needs to. Will they finally show some emotion tonight? I think so, mainly because they are coming off a horrid beating and are catching the Warriors on a B2B. GS is clearly the better team on both sides of the ball, but I just don't see them having an easy time tonight.
Leans: Celtics +3, over 195.
Good luck to all tonight.
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