Over/Under: How I am winning

thanks for the insight Sly....and i hope you accept my friend request...i hardly post comments on here, unless i see a nice person and after reading your posts, you are pretty good.....keep up the good work and thanks for sharing...

Good Luck if you played Unders here.

Still bad shooting to start the 2nd although alot of shots are open. Looks like UNDERs in 2nd Half is the way to go.

@scratbandit - I will take a look at the Game with more depth later. Will post overnite before Game time.

But Portland have a game the next nite and I think they can actually defend well enough to keep the GSWs shooting percentages down. They barely came out of the game against Detroit and will be conscious of lapses in their D.

I cannot see them giving 100 points to the GSW in this one and are surely not as dumb as Cleveland were in running all nite when Cleveland had the Wizards the next nite - and we know what happened in the 2nd Half in that game..

@sportsgirl - will accept your friend request 

I'm not always on during Game time as am at work but have some Thursdays and all Fridays off to post HT commentary or plays as I am watching certain Games.

Did u play Unders??? Good luck if you did. Hope it stays that way altho i will lose.

thanks mate...i actually followed u and played OVEr...i dont normally play 2H...my friend just gave me an account online so i am testing it with a small play so i get the hang of things...

Typical Laker's game. You get 10 points in a minute or no points in 2 minutes in their games and that's why they are hard to cap.

That's pretty much why Bookies will give the same plays nite in nite out on Laker's contests whether it's H2H, lines or totals. Safer for them that way.

The Totals at 196 is under threat now. Damn.

ya i was looking at that....hope 4th qtr they slow it down a bit and make sure overall game total is UNDER...i have more at stake in team total Under...and i got it at 195.....i will look forward to your post tomorrow...its late here in Canada, have a nice day at work...

56 Points in the 3rd Qtr with some great shooting from the arc. Can't do much when both teams get hot but disappointing seeing Chicago not play any interior D and giving too many drives through the lane.

I'm not at work on Fridays. Yeah you could get the plays both ways but Chicago are a shambles now. Not concentrating on D and Lakers will let the Bulls runs and gun as well.

OK I'm looking for some plays tomorrow.

Will post H2H winners too which i normally play but not always encourage. Thinking the Wizards at +2 are a good take against OKC

11/19/2009
PHILADELPHIA v MEMPHIS
Total: 197.5

Memphis are a very streaky team who can score alot of points. In the 1st six Games of the Season, they hit 100+ mark on 5 of 6 occasions and only missed the other by a bucket when held to 98 by the Lakers.

When allowed, they will play offense and have a decent shooting percentage at 46.6% and away they average 105 ppg. They also get to the free throw line 29 times which always helps in stopping the clock and getting points with in frozen time. Ranked 2nd in this stat.

The Grizzlies have found it tougher to score as they have played teams like Portland (scored 79) and Houston (79) who can limit your offense potential.

Memphis also allows teams to score heavily on fast breaks too which always helps in keeping the scoring up and are one of the worst defensive teams in the league giving 107 ppg but .

Philadelphia averages 93 ppg at home. Most of the teams they have played so far do not play at a high tempo or are prolific shooting teams (eg Charlotte) and they seem to get bogged down in defensive struggles when there is no flow in the Game. I think the 76ers players will enjoy  the pace that Memphis will bring and it's highly winnable for either team.

Unlike the Game against Phoenix which was a treat (119-115) for Overs fans.

I am going to say that this will be a similar game. Philly can score against teams which play no D, they have 3 point scoring potential and all up I see both teams hitting 100 points each.

Play: Over 197.5

Lakers and Chicago let me down but the Utah game was the only solace as they got the deal done winning for the 1st time in 10 years and snapping a losing streak on the road of 20.

I guess if you kept doubling up on them then you would have still lost over the 10 years as the value of money would have fluctuated since 10 years ago.

Oh well, 1-1 today and 10-8 for the Season since posting (but actually 16-8 prior to posting).

Not too great so have some work ahead. As I have said, most of my stats are in line with picking a winner on the Money Line rather than Overs/Unders. Did well with Utah but nothing with Chicago.

I will post more plays (possibly 2 or 3 for tomorrow - Philly/Griz game up above).

As before - I will post the play for Totals but also add who I will view as a possible winner or line bet.

GL to all.

And could you guys do me a favor - I want to see "Harley Quinn" (my image) in a Batman movie. She would be just the best thing since Catwoman. So please write to Warner Brothers and vote her to be added in a future Batman movie if they allow that kinda stuff in the States

Hey sly,

I have been following your thread for the past few days and even though ur not killing it I still thin your winning percentage is solid and ur insight is actually a lot more sound than others.  I have had a bad week and was hoping you could pm me any insight you may have tomorrow.  Thanx a lot.

Yeah Thanks - winning more on the Money Lines than on the Totals buddy although most of my my money is on the Totals so I'm riding it with everyone.

Here are some plays for tomorrow:

76ers/Memphis OVER 197.5
Portland/GSW: Under 206

Possible Washington win over OKC. Think they can get it done with Jamison in the line up and shouldn't have any fades in the 2nd half. OKC will be tough but Washington have the offense to stay with them and historically have had the better of OKC.

May be a good look for over the 193.5 set as both teams can shoot well. I will provide a summary on this play later

11/20/2009
DALLAS v SACRAMENTO
Total: 201.5

2 teams coming off 2-3 day breaks.

Dallas may not view Sacramento as a big threat to them in this game and if that is the case, I expect them to entertain the fans with some fast break ball and shooting without the need to rotate the ball too often.

Against teams with limited Defensive capabilities, Dallas normally shoots a high percentage and also throw up 80-85 shots a game. They have the inside and outside game to test anyone in the league and averages 107 ppg at home at 47%.

Sacramento averages 94 ppg away from home on 43% shooting. They do however shoot around 80 clips a game. Sacramento concedes 102 ppg when they are away.

The key to scoring for Sacramento here is how well Tyreke Evans plays against Jason Kidd. It will be great to watch a veteran defender like Kidd play the rookie with more moves than a 70's Disco king. Barea will not be able to guard Evans at all. Evans may be able to penetrate and dish.

Andreas Nocioni is a loss for the Kings as he adds some balance and fluidity to their offense with his 3 point shooting.

Kings have a very weak bench offensively and this does not help in selecting over the 201.5 Total. The starting line up for the Kings average around 34 minutes a game.

If they are losing big, I do not expect the bench to play the minutes even though the Kings have to back up in Houston the next day. Kings will try and try but they will be trashed.

There is every chance junk time comes late in the 3rd Qtr and we get some easy point from both teams.

But in all seriousness, Kings will not throw up 80 shots in this one. Last time they were away, they only put up 67 shots against Utah and won the game due to 49% shooting and of which 11/19 was from 3 point territory. I cannot see them repeating that and will be lucky to score 85 here.

This will be about how much Dallas wins by. Dallas probably 105 - 85

Play: Under 201.5

Dallas at -11 is definitely a great play.

Rather cut my arm off and eat it.

I am going to da house one way or the other - whether it's hitting 75% or hitting 90%. We got alotta games to go chump

 

I think everyone can tell you are a pretty good capper so far, but I think you may need to come back to earth with this whole 90% (and 75% for that matter) thing.....it's just not possible for any extending period of time.

You'd have to hit your next 60+ games in a row to reach that.  Anyone that has been in this game for awhile knows that even 65% is about as good as it gets.  You're only gonna get pooped on around here if you keep your head in the clouds.

Anyways....best of luck

Good Luck.

tailing you 2

Yeah yeah. I'm too much a perfectionist to accept mediocrity. I know it's damn hard but gotta try.

The Indiana and Cleveland game is still following trends. Cleveland have cost me this year with their poor perimeter D and 3 of my 8 losses are due to them

Indiana Games = Take Over in 1st Halves especially at home and fade in 2nd halves.

Cleveland need to shape up their D and although only 13 Games into Season, they need to find out why teams are staying close and even beating them.

OKLAHOMA v WASHINGTON
2nd Half Total: 97

Oklahoma are shooting 7/11 from arc. That's the difference in the Game. All other stats are similar.

I am expecting Washington to win this game if they can address this issue. Still the +3 on them was worth the take.

I like what you do!

Thanks my man. I'll see what I can do for you folks. Sometimes the figures don't add up but the run is OK. Just got to figure NFL.

US Sports is the toughest to predict mainly as all these players are Pro and the schedules are heavy. But seriously anyone can beat anyone unlike other sports in the World. That's why some books give you bonuses on your parlays.

PHILADELPHIA v MEMPHIS

But by the hair of my chinny chin chin. Man Philly seem to shoot themselves when they can't shoot. Memphis break the road jinx.