Over/Under: How I am winning

HEY SLYSPY VERY NICE DONE

TAILED YOU ON THE LAK UNDEE

KEEP IT UP  CONGRATS

WILL BE LOOKING AT YOUR POSTS EVERYDAY

Thanks. I think most people would have picked UNDER on the LA game anyway which is a good thing. The Line actually went out to 207.5 but glad one team decided to play some D.

I will send some more predictions for tomorrow shortly.

really pleased you're making hay but the trouble with systems is that they never work in the long term, if they did, there wouldn't be bookmakers taking bets!

surprised you weren't on the "over" in Ocklahoma today sly.

That, along with the under in Detroit were my two totals plays today and from reading your stuff I see some symetry in the way we get our numbers

11/16/2009
MILWAUKEE v DALLAS
Total: 190.5

Dallas on the back to back but no big deal. Detroit to Milwaukee isn't far. But the big question is will the Bucks play high level Defense while still trying to run the game.

Dallas will obviously come to this game looking for a fast start but will be playing at a steady tempo.

Dallas average 93.5 ppg when playing away and shoots around under 42% in 2009/10. Bucks at home average 108.8 over 4 games but there was the game they scored 129 (Warriors = no Defense).

So far for Milwaukee, any totals set between the 184-191 marks stay under. This is due to the fact there is a focus on the possibility of good defense and/or low shooting percentages.

The focus here will be that Andrew Bogut will be guarding the lane well and will cause Dallas to shoot from the perimeters or the elbow. Milwaukee causes opposition teams to shoot at 43%.

Nowitzki is a central focus to the Total staying over/under. He is averaging 21 ppg away but also averages 23 against the Bucks. I thought he had an off nite against Detroit till the 4th Quarter where he found the range.


Conclusion: UNDER 190.5

Well done on the OVER in Oklahoma/Clips Game. I chose to leave that alone as couldn't figure whether Baron Davis would get his act together. He did !!!!!

LETS GO GET THAT DALLAS UNDEE

93 I GOT

BOL TO US SLYSPY

oh well

 

helluva first quarter eh?

fcuk this game, it might go over in the first half. 

LoL It sucks when it's like that. Both teams managed to shoot well and Dallas was 27/39 in the 1st Half.

I wasn't expecting the Bucks to match them all the way through.

11/17/2009
SACREMENTO v CHICAGO
Total: 198.0

Sacremento have scored 100+ in their past 6 Games but the points have come against teams that allow that and compensate by trying to score themselves, eg Houston, Golden State, Atlanta.

Chicago have not scored 100 in their in any Game this year but more importantly have kept their opposition to under 100 themselves (except Boston who scored 118). That;s 8/9 Games where Chicago have shown they are a Defensive unit.

This is one Game I think the Sacremento Kings will have some problems on the offense. The Bulls tend to limit fast break points which the Kings thrive on by getting back on D.

Bulls average 88 ppg away. Sacremento average 112 ppg at home.

I don't think Bulls are a team that will gift 112 points let alone 100 points to Sacremento. Bulls prefer to play at their pace and grind out wins. Sacremento will find it harder to score here and I expect their shooting percentages will be lower as they won't be getting so many stick backs from Offensive Rebounding.

Chicago are a decent team on the boards and always contest better than most.

Sacremento have won rebound battles as follows and it's little wonder they have also won their Games.

52-34 vs Warriors (don't need rebounds when all u want is scoring)
51-36 vs OKC (fairly good normally)
54- 35 vs Houston (short in the big man department)

I can tell you that against Chicago, they won't be getting such a huge advantage on the Boards or the 2nd chance scoring. Chicago will even the rebound count and will play the game at their tempo.

Conclusion: Under 198

I would look at a Chicago win here too.

11/17/2009
NEW JERSEY v INDIANA
Total: 188.5

I like Indiana and will bet they win this Game easy. But one thing to consider is that they do allow teams to shoot a decent amount. They are not exactly a team that causes teams to work to the last 2-3 seconds and shoot high pressure shots. I think New Jersey gets off some shots in this game - maybe around 75-80 and scores 85-90 points.

Indiana never has problems scoring with Granger now shooting the lights out and players like Rush taking charge of the offense with penetrating drives or running floaters.

They won't necessarily score 125+ points like last year just yet as Troy Murphy is out. But they will score 100-110 points easily.

Play: Over 188.5

11/17/2009
HOUSTON v PHOENIX
Total: 220.5

Phoenix are actually struggling offensively in their past 2 games, especially Jason Richardson. I cannot see how they can beat the Rockets given how much they struggled against Toronto.

Had it not been for Channing Frye's timely 3 pointers in the 3rd and 4th Quarters, they would have lost comfortably especially as Toronto were looking to build on their 7 point lead in the 3rd.

Rockets will find they will have to shoot well to win. Stoudamire will not be allowing too many points in the paint.

I am betting that there will be alot more missed shots in this game and not too many fouls to stop the clock as Houston possibly may not bother to go inside other than on fast breaks.

Logic tells me that Houston Games are not 220 type contests as the Bookies may think. There are alot of periods of downtime where there is not alot of scoring.

It is wise to take OVER for the 1st half and UNDER in 2nd half.

Play: Under 220.5

good luk sly

Thanks. I need it after the weekend on the NFL. I won't bother with picking a winning team in NFL anymore this season.

May try Overs/Unders there instead

BOL

17/11/2009 Summary: 2-1

HOUSTON v PHOENIX 

NEW JERSEY v INDIANA

SACREMENTO v CHICAGO 

18/11/2009
WASHINGTON v CLEVELAND
Total: 194

Cleveland are allowing teams to shoot a high percentage amd also scoring over 100 points themselves over the past 5 Games. This has caused the OVERs in their Games to get there easily before half time. I'm not sure how well Cleveland are playing as their style could lead to them losing more than winning Games.

Washington strangely can match up well with Cleveland if they play defense. Traditionally, the scores in Games between these two teams make for grinding contests similar to Playoffs. They hate each others guts anyway and I would imagine a defensive effort would be the approach.

I'm throwing the Stats out the window on this one.

Cleveland on a back to back and Washington at home after some rest time. This should help Washington play a good level defense and track Mo Williams around the perimeter.

Cleveland may edge close to 95-100 points in this game but i can't see Washington get to 90 unless they shoot around 50%. They normally don't and most Washington games total around the 185-190 region.

Play: UNDER 194

18/11/2009
PORTLAND v DETROIT
Total: 178.5

It's evident that teams with better D shut down players like C.Villanueva and Stuckey. Detroit would have been kept to some 80 points vs Lakers but as we all know, Lakers just don't play D and get into stupid fast break basketball games against teams when they are leading by 20.

Sometimes they actually lose those Games they let teams back in.

Portland tends to play D 100% of the Game. I don't see Detroit managing 80 points against a team like Portland unless they take it inside but then you have Greg Odom to contend with and he will block you or make you change your shot.

Will Bynum has been shooting well. How will he do against Steve Blake or Andre Miller who actually will out height him and play better D.

This should be a highly defensive struggle from both ends. Portland are home after a long trip East. Along the way, they have lost Travis Outlaw for some weeks. The Portland roster isn't as imposing atm without Outlaw.

Detroit are coming off a back2back from LA.

Play: UNDER 178.5 or buy at least 7 more points

18/11/2009
ORLANDO v OKLAHOMA CITY
Total: 190

The loss of Jameer Nelson makes the Magic very vulnerable. Oklahoma City can really test the Magic in this game although they are playing back to back. Although Rashard Lewis is back (4/15 vs Charlotte), I think Orlando will be looking at taking care of the ball and getting good shots in this one.

Oklahoma are showing they can play inside and out and have Game breakers to cause heavy upsets against much fancier teams. So far they have outgunned San Antonio, Miami, Orlando and took the Lakers to OT.

There is alot in this squad to like. They have managed to shoot well and look for better shots than most teams do. I think Orlando will recognize this and will be playing a tougher defense in this game if they want to win.

190 looks ok for under or over - you just need to pick where it will land as the score will be close to it. My key here is that I expect the higher D from Orlando to keep the Oklahoma shooters off target.

Orlando have not scored 100 points in their past 5 Games.

Play: UNDER 190

Consider Oklahoma on points at +11.5

18/11/2009
INDIANA v NEW YORK
Total: 214.5

This really looks like too many points for this one. Indiana shot at only 39% against New Jersey and were held to only 37 points in the 2nd Half which screwed my chances on the total going over 188.5 in that Game.

Plays for Indiana games is to take Over at the Half. The fade out happens in the 2nd Half due to fatigue, complacency etc etc etc.

I have a feeling there could be an upset here. New York is not a good team but they can win the odd games against teams like Indiana if they shoot well. I think they can shoot well in this one and reverse the result from the match up in MSG a couple weeks ago.

This is what happens in NBA strangely and the Away team has won 6 of 10 at the SU.

Play: OVER at Half Time and OVER at Full Time

Take NY Knicks for the win or +6.5 start.

Strangely, if NY are going to win it will be some scoreline like 123-110

18/11/2009
PHILADELPHIA v CHARLOTTE
Total: 182

Charlotte scored 91 vs Orlando. Damning stat really. What's interesting is that the inclusion of S.Jackson is supposed to help the offense spark up. Jackson went 4/14.

It was a 30 year old Guard and journeyman by the name of Ronald Murray who sparked the offense or at least gave Charlotte scoring punch by getting 31 from 13/21 shooting. Bobcats shot 50% in that Game.

I am betting Murray doesn't get the same look against Philadelphia but I am also expecting the score to go over as Philly actually gives opponents good shooting choices and concedes 102 ppg at home.

Regardless of the opposition like Phoenix (119), Utah (112), New Jersey (94), Boston (105), Milwaukee (86), they concede too many points and that is why they are a lousy team for their Fans.

I think this game will be around the 98-90 style.

Play: OVER 182

Look at Charlotte for the win or take the line at +4. They will enjoy the transition game Jackson will bring and this may free up alot of their interior play as well as allow extra players loose on the perimeter who may not be highly regarded (like Mr Murray) to score some points.