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NBA Total Season Wins

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Posted: #1
Ive done really well over the years betting on NBA Season Totals,  Ill explain my reasoning more later.My book Pinnacle finally put out the odds today so these are what im putting my money on.  
 
Anyways here are my bets:
 
ill get these two out of the way because im betting extremely small on them because they are my two favorite teams so Im betting on them to go over more for fun...
 
Fan Bet (bet at your own discretion) Celts Over 53.5 Wins and Rapts Over 47.5 Wins.....
 
If these werent my fav teams, i would probably lay off betting on them or against them.  The celts should be able to win that amount though if they can stay healthy, they still have a good defensive minded team and we all know KG and Doc will still put out 100%.  They lost Posey in the preseason but they still have a decent bench that meshes well.  Big 3 are getting old but 53.5 should be easily attainable if they can each play over 70 games each, I assume Ray Ray will get hurt a bit this year but the Celts should be able to weather the storm while he is out for 20 games..    Ive got things to do so ill try to keep this short.  Rapts have a very solid team especially in teh east.  They upgraded their PG position, yes upgraded because now they will have Caldy for the whole season and that whole TJ/Caldy situation is cleared up, no more confusion.  JO will be good for this team and he has a lot to prove, if he stays healthy the Rapts win over 50 games.  They have a thin bench so the starters will have to stay healthy.  They won 41 games last year and from watching them, i can see especially with JO there now, how they can win an extra 7 games. This team can be really good, again i have to repeat though, i am betting small on them because im a fan, and if i wasnt a fan i would stay away from betting on them. So that should tell you something....
 
Alright, lets get to the picks:
 
1) Minny Under 30.5 Wins  
 
Ive done some research and a lot of people are saying over over over on this team. Seems like everyone is predicting them winning 30 -36 games.  Mike Miller this and Kevin love that, saviours of this team? come on... If they played in the East i would say yes but they play in the west and their divy is decent enough to keep them under.  They won 22 games last year, so how are they going to win 9 more games to make this go over?  They are a young team with potential but Wittman cant coach, McHale ( i loved him when he was a celtic) does not make the right moves, and this team just plain sucks.  They wont get much better, Foye is injury prone and i wouldnt be surprsied if AJ gets hurt or slacks off like he did a bit in Boston. Their frontcourt is way too small, AJ and Love are both tiny when you look at the bigs in the west..  I really doubt this team wins more than 30.5 games. They are too young even with Mike Miller who i can see them trading near the end anyway.  Bet against them, i have and i might put more... I have a much better play later on though...
 
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Posted: #2
2) Spurs Over 48.5
 
3) Pistons Over 50.5
 
Im going to make this quick.  How can you argue with consistency?  Spurs have won at least 56 games in their last 8 years. That is crazy consistent.  Detroit has won at least 53 in their last 5 years.  Every year, a lot of the public (these arent fan favorite teams) love to count both of these teams out and say, OH THEY ARE TOO OLD BLAH BLAH and shit like that, well you cant argue with their results. They get it done....
 
 
 
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Posted: #3
4) Bobcats Under 36.5 Wins
 
Small play here, choosing pink here cause this team is extremely injury prone and they hand out the 'pink slip' quite a bit lol, like their GMs in the past and their last coach Vincent lasted only  a year after they were both praising him before the season started (if they can some how stay healthy and focused look out)... Anyways, i just hate  this organization, their owner doesnt seem to get it, Jordan rarely even shows up and doesnt seem involved, and now they have Brown who i heard wants to overhaul the lineup.  Brown is a good coach but from seeing how he handled his last job (knicks), he handed it awfully and he could not turn that team around but made it actually worse, i know that was the Knicks but this team to be honest has its share of problems. I cant see them improving from last year even with Brown. They won 32 games last year... Jrich is injury prone and Gerald Wallace, especially if he has to play a lot of Power Forward is so close to a season ending injury again, he has had too many concussions... I like those guys but like i said injury prone, and I like Okafor but he is an undersized center.... A lot of people are predicting them to win 37-40 games, i disagree, but i wouldnt bet a lot against them though because i dont know what kind of impact Brown will have, if they had any other coach i would bet heavily on the Under 36.5  here.
 
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5) Bucks over 30.5
 
This is my biggest play.   I hope im right here otherwise im going to look like a big jackass. I dont have a gun to your head but my advice is to hammer this play. Hammer it!!! Empty out the piggy bank, use your grocery money, go rob a bank, steal your gfs credit card (obviously just joking) but seriously  this is by far my favorite of all the bets.  I love this team to win 31 games or more and Ill tell you why.   First off, Skiles in the new coach and i always loved the way he gets the most out of his teams, i never thought chicago was a great team but he got them winning a ton of games when he was there.  He will bring a lot to this Bucks team, especially on the Defensive side...  Second off they got RJ, who in my opinion is an allstar player and didnt have to give up much to do so... Bogut is constantly improving, and Redd, well Redd is a shooting machine and always puts up big numbers.  Ridnour had a crappy season last year but i expect him to get comfortable in Beer Town and take over the role last year held by Mo Williams. They will lose a bit there... Also, cant forget about Alexander, a good looking rookie with a lot of upside. Charlie bell is a good solid bench guy on this team as well... Hopefully im not dillusional here in giving this team a lot of props and expectations...Im confident I will be correct on my analysis on this bucks team, i expect them to win 40 games, make the playoffs, be a sleeper team this year,  and be a fun team to watch.
 
 
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Posted: #5
6) Denver Over 40.5 Wins
 
“We’ve got a chance to win 50 to 60 (games),” said forward Carmelo Anthony. “We’ve got a chance to be one of the best teams in the NBA.”

Okay i disagree with him but they do still have a lot of talent. Im kind of tired with the other writeups which i hoped you all enjoyed so ill keep this short....With Melo and AI still playing well, and Karl still at the helm, 41 wins should be attainable.  Kleiza is great off the bench. And a lot of pressure is on Kmart and Nene to finally stay healthy. They won 50 games last year and many people say, well w/o camby they will go down bigtime, i dont agree, Camby, who won defensive player of the year a couple years ago, is a bit overated as a defender. Ive seen stats that proved it, it compared when he was on the floor and off. And he was not a great offensive player....

 
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Posted: #6
7) Warriors Under 37.5
 
Love this play...Wanna know why the Warriors were good last year? Baron Davis. He was healthy all year and he makes that offense run. With this offense and that is all this team is, pure offense, the most important position is PG and with Davis gone, this team will crumble. There are already problems with the suits on this team (Mullin vs ownder and team president). Plus Monta Ellis will try playing point guard which i dont think will work out very well and he has been injured and suspended for 30 games so Williams will be the PG for a lot of the season.  Stephen Jackson will be back to his old self(a bad thing), hes been good the last couple years because of Davis but once the losses start to pile up, he will get frustrated and start to mope and play selfish and poorly.  They got maggette but that wont make a difference...
 
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Posted: #7
8) Kings Under 28.5
 
They overachieved bigtime last year. They were a very bad team (8-17) with Artest out of the lineup and hes gone now so what or who will take over the slack...Brad Miller is injury prone especially due to age,  they got some decent swingment in Salmons and Garcia but they arent proven yet, they signed up Udrih who played well in spurts last year to a big contract and i had him in my fantasy league for a bit last year but overall im not impressed by all those players.  And im not impressed with Coach Theus, he doesnt have a lot of coaching experience, i really think he overachieved massively last year and this year, it will all come crashing down.  They do have some young athletic players but they are a bad defensive team and lack direction  and have nobody in the paint (mikki moore strikes a lot of fear  lol)    This team will be very bad, dont go large on the under but i still think its solid enough to put a couple bets on.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

Ive done really well over the years betting on NBA Season Totals,  Ill explain my reasoning more later.My book Pinnacle finally put out the odds today so these are what im putting my money on.  
 
Anyways here are my bets:
 
ill get these two out of the way because im betting extremely small on them because they are my two favorite teams so Im betting on them to go over more for fun...
 
Fan Bet (bet at your own discretion) Celts Over 53.5 Wins and Rapts Over 47.5 Wins.....
 
If these werent my fav teams, i would probably lay off betting on them or against them.  The celts should be able to win that amount though if they can stay healthy, they still have a good defensive minded team and we all know KG and Doc will still put out 100%.  They lost Posey in the preseason but they still have a decent bench that meshes well.  Big 3 are getting old but 53.5 should be easily attainable if they can each play over 70 games each, I assume Ray Ray will get hurt a bit this year but the Celts should be able to weather the storm while he is out for 20 games..    Ive got things to do so ill try to keep this short.  Rapts have a very solid team especially in teh east.  They upgraded their PG position, yes upgraded because now they will have Caldy for the whole season and that whole TJ/Caldy situation is cleared up, no more confusion.  JO will be good for this team and he has a lot to prove, if he stays healthy the Rapts win over 50 games.  They have a thin bench so the starters will have to stay healthy.  They won 41 games last year and from watching them, i can see especially with JO there now, how they can win an extra 7 games. This team can be really good, again i have to repeat though, i am betting small on them because im a fan, and if i wasnt a fan i would stay away from betting on them. So that should tell you something....
 
Alright, lets get to the picks:
 
1) Minny Under 30.5 Wins  
 
Ive done some research and a lot of people are saying over over over on this team. Seems like everyone is predicting them winning 30 -36 games.  Mike Miller this and Kevin love that, saviours of this team? come on... If they played in the East i would say yes but they play in the west and their divy is decent enough to keep them under.  They won 22 games last year, so how are they going to win 9 more games to make this go over?  They are a young team with potential but Wittman cant coach, McHale ( i loved him when he was a celtic) does not make the right moves, and this team just plain sucks.  They wont get much better, Foye is injury prone and i wouldnt be surprsied if AJ gets hurt or slacks off like he did a bit in Boston. Their frontcourt is way too small, AJ and Love are both tiny when you look at the bigs in the west..  I really doubt this team wins more than 30.5 games. They are too young even with Mike Miller who i can see them trading near the end anyway.  Bet against them, i have and i might put more... I have a much better play later on though...

How is it an upgrade when you lose the best point guard duo in the league?  Personally I'd rather have two disenchanted PG's than one happy one with virtually no back up at all.  If Calderon goes down they're fucked because they have no feasible backup. Roko Ukic is not good he will get torched on D and is not very athletic.  It's not like TJ and Calderon were fighting, simply two guards who both wanted to be the main guy yet found a way to co-exist fairly decently.  Despite the perceived "rift" between the two which was overblown by the douchebag Toronto media they still managed to be the best pg tandem in the league.

As for Jermaine O'Neal I think he is a good addition but I question his ability to stay healty as you said.  I keep hearing about how he's extra motivated and ready for the season.  I just think when your making 20 mill a year guaranteed your not gonna try and kill yourself but that's another story.

Everybody in the Toronto media is annointing this Raptor team as an Eastern Conference contender.  I don't see it at all.  They're a 5 seed at best proly a #6.  There not better than Boston, Detroit, Philly, Orlando off the top of my head.  They have no scorers in their backcourt who can create off the dribble and get their own shot off at the end of the game.  They also have no guy defensively to be a stopper against the elite 2 guards in the league.  Anthony Parker is not that great of a defender regardless of what Chuck Swirsky may say.  If one of O'Neal or Calderon goes down the lack of depth on this team will be very apparent and Raptors fans will be very dissapointed.

 
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Posted: #9
Really like the Denver over and Golden State under.  Be careful with the Bobcats they are a sleeper this year.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by ValueforRent:

How is it an upgrade when you lose the best point guard duo in the league?  Personally I'd rather have two disenchanted PG's than one happy one with virtually no back up at all.  If Calderon goes down they're fucked because they have no feasible backup. Roko Ukic is not good he will get torched on D and is not very athletic.  It's not like TJ and Calderon were fighting, simply two guards who both wanted to be the main guy yet found a way to co-exist fairly decently.  Despite the perceived "rift" between the two which was overblown by the douchebag Toronto media they still managed to be the best pg tandem in the league.

As for Jermaine O'Neal I think he is a good addition but I question his ability to stay healty as you said.  I keep hearing about how he's extra motivated and ready for the season.  I just think when your making 20 mill a year guaranteed your not gonna try and kill yourself but that's another story.

Everybody in the Toronto media is annointing this Raptor team as an Eastern Conference contender.  I don't see it at all.  They're a 5 seed at best proly a #6.  There not better than Boston, Detroit, Philly, Orlando off the top of my head.  They have no scorers in their backcourt who can create off the dribble and get their own shot off at the end of the game.  They also have no guy defensively to be a stopper against the elite 2 guards in the league.  Anthony Parker is not that great of a defender regardless of what Chuck Swirsky may say.  If one of O'Neal or Calderon goes down the lack of depth on this team will be very apparent and Raptors fans will be very dissapointed.

I never said there was a rift but having two good point guards who were starting back and forth between each other definitely does not help chemistry. TJ is not nearly as good a point guard as Caldy which is why i said its an upgrade having Caldy start the whole season w/o anyone looking over his shoulder. If Caldy gets injured they dont win 50 games no matter what so forget about backup PG situation in that respect. Plus they got JO for Ford, so that solved two problems (a: getting a big man who can score and play D next to Bosh, and b:fixing the whole PG situation which Colangelo said he had to do after the season ended)    Your quote How is it an upgrade when you lose the best point guard duo in the league?  Personally I'd rather have two disenchanted PG's than one happy one with virtually no back up at all.   Well that wasnt going to happen, because no way Caldy would have played another season with the Rapts if he wasnt going to be a starter, he said he wanted to play for Toronto but as a starter so it was either keep him or keep TJ...

 
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Posted: #11
Plus i said betting on the Raptors to win 48 games or more would be a NO PLAY if i wasnt a Raptors fan. Im betting extremely small on them. And yes i agree, there are a lot of people overhyping them. They are thin on the bench...
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

Plus i said betting on the Raptors to win 48 games or more would be a NO PLAY if i wasnt a Raptors fan. Im betting extremely small on them. And yes i agree, there are a lot of people overhyping them. They are thin on the bench...

True enough I just don't like seeing people getting too attached to Toronto teams because in the end they will all break your heart.

 
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Posted: #13
 
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Posted: #14
Nice work  Money  Every year I say the Bucks are going to have a good team and they end up stinking the joint up .  i think the addition  of RJ  will make a big differance .  Good luck in all your futures
 
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Posted: #17
Thanks Fellas... Also i want to say,  my book Pinnacle is not offering any odds on the Miami Heat for some reason and that is another team i wanted to bet the over on, so if your book offers it at 37.5 then i would bet on that.  I think the Heat win 40 games this year at least if they can stay healthy...
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by docterd597:

Nice work  Money  Every year I say the Bucks are going to have a good team and they end up stinking the joint up .  i think the addition  of RJ  will make a big differance .  Good luck in all your futures

The Bucks will pull it together this year Docterd, i have faith.

 
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Posted: #19
sorry buddy, but the warriors will win more than 38
 
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Posted: #20
Reppendayay, GL but i doubt it.  Baron was the heart and soul of that team, and Monta wont be back for a quite a while... They will be lost out there...
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by reppendayay:

sorry buddy, but the warriors will win more than 38


39?
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

5) Bucks over 30.5
 
This is my biggest play.   I hope im right here otherwise im going to look like a big jackass. I dont have a gun to your head but my advice is to hammer this play. Hammer it!!! Empty out the piggy bank, use your grocery money, go rob a bank, steal your gfs credit card (obviously just joking) but seriously  this is by far my favorite of all the bets.  I love this team to win 31 games or more and Ill tell you why.   First off, Skiles in the new coach and i always loved the way he gets the most out of his teams, i never thought chicago was a great team but he got them winning a ton of games when he was there.  He will bring a lot to this Bucks team, especially on the Defensive side...  Second off they got RJ, who in my opinion is an allstar player and didnt have to give up much to do so... Bogut is constantly improving, and Redd, well Redd is a shooting machine and always puts up big numbers.  Ridnour had a crappy season last year but i expect him to get comfortable in Beer Town and take over the role last year held by Mo Williams. They will lose a bit there... Also, cant forget about Alexander, a good looking rookie with a lot of upside. Charlie bell is a good solid bench guy on this team as well... Hopefully im not dillusional here in giving this team a lot of props and expectations...Im confident I will be correct on my analysis on this bucks team, i expect them to win 40 games, make the playoffs, be a sleeper team this year,  and be a fun team to watch.
 


Great Play on the Bucks -

 
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Posted: #23
Look good Money we are on some of the same
 
Summary
West
Utah Over 51.5
New Orleans over 51.5
Portland Over 44.5
Golden State Under 37.5
Minnesota Under 30.5
La Clippers Over 34.5

East
Detroit over 50.5
Bucks over 30.5-
Washington Under 38.5
Atlanta over 36.5
Miami over 37.5

May add one or to more later but this is probably it
 
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Posted: #24
Thanks latinlover,
 
and good luck goodatbetsnope.
 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Warriors-losing Davis was bad, but he wanted too damn much. Not money, years. I've got a thread I'll dig up with the O/U on games played this year around 63....or was it 58?
 
Anyway, Baron is all about Baron. And there is a lot of Baron. He recently signed on with NutriSystem, so that tells what great shape he keeps himself in.
 
But, Baron is history. Enjoy the Clippers with Elton Brand, Baron. What's that? Elton left? Kind of like you, when we asked if you were leaving..........
 
Anyway, Monta falls off a moped. Then lies about it. And we want to use this judgment to distribute the ball? Warriors have some good young talent, but will make too many rookie mistakes. And Nellie is on record as saying he'll play the younger guys. Warriors have lacked a guy that could get to the rim and get fouls AND make free throws, they got their man in Maggot. I honestly think they signed him just so he could not play against them, he had that many great games. Seemed like he shot 15/17 free throws every time he played the Warriors.
Losing Ellis is a killer. Makes his transition that much harder when he comes back. They'll have to bump the then current point guard out of the rotation, which will be a mess. But this guy is a 20ppg, 50% shooter..........
I think Stack Jack is a new man. He's done tons of community stuff around here since he's been here. I don't think you can do all that without believing in it. Guy just doesn't come across as a gangsta-wannabe...
Al Harrington is a good changeup from A. Biedrins, another youngster getting better all the time. They both suffer from Warrior disease, not making free throws.
One thing that scares me is the defense, or lack of it. It's all good when the Warriors hit 120, but any game under 100, forget it. Maggot wasn't brought in for his D, Biedrins sometimes has trouble staying on the floor, Jackson can only guard one guy, and all those rookies.......................
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