My Story, My Pick

Thanks for the congrats.

I'm flying to Denver for some skiing with my bro in a few hours so I don't have much time for a writeup, but real quickly here is why I am taking the Bulls +4.

First off, odds makers continue to pay the Bulls more respect than the public, and I think I'm starting to see why.  They are rarely >10 point underdogs lately, even on the road (except @ Boston the other night, at +11 I think), and for the most part, the Bulls have been winning ATS.  Seems like the public hasn't quite caught onto this trend yet considering the consensus (shhh, don't tell them), but Vegas is obviously a little nervous of the sharps hitting the Bulls tonight so they are only giving them 4 points against a very, very hot Jazz team.  It's also important to consider that the Bulls have competed, at least, in all but one of the last 10 games they've played.  In a few of those they had tie games halfway through the 4th quarter before blowing them.  The Bulls, I've learned, can hang with anyone (except maybe the Celts and Rockets right now).  They lost to Detroit in their last game but scored the most points anyone has scored on Detroit all season and kept it close for most of the game.  They are also 3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.

So on the Chicago side, here is what I've put together:  Bulls are scoring, oddsmakers fear them, they play well at home, they have a tendency to upset big favorites in the western conference, they might be starting to click, they stick with good teams and can make it close, and after being pounded by the public the past few days (Celts last night) they're looking to trap a few people with Utah.  Let's reverse it.

On the Utah side, here are my thoughts:  They are very hard to track because they play so well at home, I mean very very well at home, but then they lose to team like the Clippers on the road.  Until the Jazz prove to me that they can start winning on the road more than 50% of the time, I will fade them when appropriate on the road.  The only thing that worries me is that they beat a desperate Phoenix team in Phoenix a few nights ago.  I'm not saying Phoenix is necessarily a tough team to beat these days, but it could give them some momentum along with their blowout of Denver the other night.  As a result, this is going to be a relatively small play for me, but I'm still very confident.  I just don't want to make a huge mistake by thinking the Jazz are still cold on the road when they've actually turned it around.

I think the Bulls are about to get hot judging by their last 10 games, and we have a few days before the public and Vegas will catch on.  This is a very good spot to take a soon-to-be-hot Chicago team at home against a weak road team in the Jazz.

Haha, and I said there wouldn't be a writeup...  I started and it just kind of flowed.  Good luck!  Let's hope this one hits too...

Clarification:

"and after being pounded by the public the past few days (Celts last night) they're looking to trap a few people with Utah. "

meant to say:

and, Vegas, after being pounded by the public the past few days (Celts last night) are looking to trap a few people with Utah.

no thread today man?

Nope....need to change it up....I will post again once I start picking winners agian.  tonight I am loving these plays though.....Ind,Chi,Minn

 

Have fun sking....see you when you get back...Im leaving for a meeting right now....later

Thanks man, I'll think you'll hit at least two of them...
I'll probably be gone for a few days so good luck with the rest of the week

Alright, I'm back from Denver and I'm ready to get back to winning.  I almost played Houston tonight at -10 but I laid off fortunately.  Tomorrow I think there's going to be a really great opportunity for a bet, but the line isn't out yet for a few games I'm interested in.  I would advise all to lay off the Utah @ Nets game.  It's definitely a trap line, but Utah isn't in the same place they were a week ago on the road, and I think they may cover.  On the other hand, going against Vegas this strongly is never a good idea.

Hope everyone did well tonight... be back tomorrow with some ideas

Lawstyle ... can you start a new post for each day of your pick/s ???
It's quite difficult to find relevance when you first come into this post, as it starts off from a week ago !!!
Great work so far ... please start a new post with the next pick ... please ???

Thanks