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#1
First NBA total post this year when the Cavs visit the Jazz.
This is an NBA system play of mine. Those of you familiar with my NBA system plays know they are mostly built from technical angles including math and long term trending.
I do not argue with people about the posts... because they have nothing to do with recent play of the teams, who they might traded away since the last time the teams played each other or how far back the trends go. It is all numerically based, has a long term winning % and are proven.
To be honest... I am not always sure how some of the trends continue to apply...but they just do....maybe it's in the local water? We just go with it and win over the long haul.
Here we go for tonight.. The last 10 times the Cavs have played at Utah, 7 were overs. The last 5 of 6 when the Cavs visited Utah it has gone over... even though one game did go under...Note that it would have gone over if they used tonight's total of 188... in all those games the lowest final score was 193. The average final score over the last 6 meetings in Utah is actually 202.
In the last 11 games between the two clubs, home court tossed out, 10 of the last 11 meetings would have went OVER tonight's total of 188 dating all the way back to 2005.
At the time of this post 69% of the bets on this game were played on the UNDER 188 with no downward total line movement. This is due to public perception of each teams recent form... note both the Cavs and Jazz have each played 3 consecutive unders in the last 3 games on their schedule.
The recent under streaks by both teams have forced the oddsmakers to offer a lower number on this total to balance the action. But in reality, my software (damn good software) has this game at 193.
Play the Cavs & Jazz OVER 188 tonight, no reason not to!
Good Luck!
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