It's the most wonderful time of year once again! Basketball is starting up pretty damn soon, which is great because once again the Red Sox suck ass...and even worse hockey is in a lockout. I have done the NFL Predictions for the past 4 years, and figured that I would step into the world of NBA.
Overall, I have done VERY well in the NBA, usually posting between 55 and 60% winners...and it's all because of trends. In the NFL, I try and predict a line, and if there is a huge difference, I take a deeper look at that line.
In the NBA, you really can't do that because games are played every other day, and a lot of times on a back to back. So what I do it take weekly, monthly, and overall trends and pick out a few that I will ride throughout the entire season. The second big thing that I look at as far as NBA betting is the emotional aspect of the game. Things like a revenge game, or going up against a former teammate and stuff like that. The NFL is built on "any given Sunday", but the NBA is much more analytical...and I LOVE IT!!
I will be much more active this year than last year...as last year I was going through some really rough times, and only made about 20 wagers on NBA games throughout the year. I hope to see a lot of old faces in my threads, and some new ones as well...
And as usual I know that I will be way off on a lot of these predictions, but that's the fun of it all. I love to go back in time and try and figure out what the hell i was thinking when I had Team X winning the East and ending up at 34 wins!!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
What's up fellas!!
It's the most wonderful time of year once again! Basketball is starting up pretty damn soon, which is great because once again the Red Sox suck ass...and even worse hockey is in a lockout. I have done the NFL Predictions for the past 4 years, and figured that I would step into the world of NBA.
Overall, I have done VERY well in the NBA, usually posting between 55 and 60% winners...and it's all because of trends. In the NFL, I try and predict a line, and if there is a huge difference, I take a deeper look at that line.
In the NBA, you really can't do that because games are played every other day, and a lot of times on a back to back. So what I do it take weekly, monthly, and overall trends and pick out a few that I will ride throughout the entire season. The second big thing that I look at as far as NBA betting is the emotional aspect of the game. Things like a revenge game, or going up against a former teammate and stuff like that. The NFL is built on "any given Sunday", but the NBA is much more analytical...and I LOVE IT!!
I will be much more active this year than last year...as last year I was going through some really rough times, and only made about 20 wagers on NBA games throughout the year. I hope to see a lot of old faces in my threads, and some new ones as well...
And as usual I know that I will be way off on a lot of these predictions, but that's the fun of it all. I love to go back in time and try and figure out what the hell i was thinking when I had Team X winning the East and ending up at 34 wins!!
ATLANTIC DIVISION 1. Boston Celtics 51-32 (39-27 last year)
The Celtics' biggest problem last year was age and depth. They had the oldest starting lineup, and once Jeff Green went down for the year and other injuries piled up, they had to really work hard in the strike shortened year. This year Jeff Green is back, along with Leandro Barbosa to backup Rondo (speed behind speed), and a couple big men rookies in Sullinger and Melo. They also brought over Courtney Lee and Jason Collins to add more depth. The loss of Ray Allen will hurt them at the free throw line and in the clutch, but the added depth and the return of their sixth man (Green) will help offset that. A lot of positive things for the C's this season, and with Rose out for the Bulls for a while, they should once again be a serious contender. 2. Brooklyn Nets 46-36 (22-44 last year)
A huge move up is in store for the Nets this season. They get a new arena, new jerseys, and most importantly a new attitude. Yes, they missed out on the Dwight Howard sweepstakes. They fumbled that one big time, but if you look at their lineup, it's still pretty damn solid from top to bottom. With Deron Williams running the point, Joe Johnson will finally have someone reliable to pass him the ball which is something he hasn't had since Steve Nash in Phoenix. Lopez and Humphries down low is a pretty damn solid combination. Gerald Wallace is an aggressive player that will give you quality minutes, and they have some guys on the bench that can also come in a contribute. I see it as a good mix of young talent and veteran leadership. Can't take them to go deep into the playoffs, but they will get there. 3. Philadelphia 76ers 40-42 (35-31 last year)
Do I like Andrew Bynum as a center? Yes I do. Do I like giving up Andre Iguodala? No, I do not. Basically they turned Iguodala, Lou Williams, Jodie Meeks, and Elton Brand into Jason Richardson and Andrew Bynum. I don't think Jrue Holiday has what it takes to be the controlling floor general for this team. They have VERY little depth in all positions. They still have talent for sure, but I can't see them as a better team than what made a solid push in the playoffs last year.
4. New York Knicks 40-42 (36-30 last year)
Old. Old. Old. Old. Those are the first four things that come to mind when thinking of this year's Knicks team. Letting Jeremy Lin go was understandable in many ways, and indefensible in many ways, but they had to at least go out and replace him with someone more reliable than Jason Kidd. A bigger loss might just be Landry Fields, who was a damn solid player off the bench for the Knicks. They have a great first lineup on paper, but just about everyone on that starting lineup has been injury prone, and with little to no depth on the bench, I just don't think this is their year. Kidd is alright, Novak is a specialist, Brewer might come into his own, but there just isn't a lot of guys you TRUST coming off the bench 5. Toronto Raptors 28-54 (23-43 last year)
Ok, so the Raptors are pretty bad, but they did improve in a few quality areas. Most notably is getting rid of a few of their random foreign bench guys in favor of guys that have actually played NBA minutes (Lowry and Fields). Unfortunately they are a small team. Bargnani isn't really a center, and is possibly the softest big man in the league...and Valuncianus isn't exactly projected to be a hell of a lot better. If they get hot shooting the ball, they can win some games. Otherwise, they will be in the basement once again.
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ATLANTIC DIVISION 1. Boston Celtics 51-32 (39-27 last year)
The Celtics' biggest problem last year was age and depth. They had the oldest starting lineup, and once Jeff Green went down for the year and other injuries piled up, they had to really work hard in the strike shortened year. This year Jeff Green is back, along with Leandro Barbosa to backup Rondo (speed behind speed), and a couple big men rookies in Sullinger and Melo. They also brought over Courtney Lee and Jason Collins to add more depth. The loss of Ray Allen will hurt them at the free throw line and in the clutch, but the added depth and the return of their sixth man (Green) will help offset that. A lot of positive things for the C's this season, and with Rose out for the Bulls for a while, they should once again be a serious contender. 2. Brooklyn Nets 46-36 (22-44 last year)
A huge move up is in store for the Nets this season. They get a new arena, new jerseys, and most importantly a new attitude. Yes, they missed out on the Dwight Howard sweepstakes. They fumbled that one big time, but if you look at their lineup, it's still pretty damn solid from top to bottom. With Deron Williams running the point, Joe Johnson will finally have someone reliable to pass him the ball which is something he hasn't had since Steve Nash in Phoenix. Lopez and Humphries down low is a pretty damn solid combination. Gerald Wallace is an aggressive player that will give you quality minutes, and they have some guys on the bench that can also come in a contribute. I see it as a good mix of young talent and veteran leadership. Can't take them to go deep into the playoffs, but they will get there. 3. Philadelphia 76ers 40-42 (35-31 last year)
Do I like Andrew Bynum as a center? Yes I do. Do I like giving up Andre Iguodala? No, I do not. Basically they turned Iguodala, Lou Williams, Jodie Meeks, and Elton Brand into Jason Richardson and Andrew Bynum. I don't think Jrue Holiday has what it takes to be the controlling floor general for this team. They have VERY little depth in all positions. They still have talent for sure, but I can't see them as a better team than what made a solid push in the playoffs last year.
4. New York Knicks 40-42 (36-30 last year)
Old. Old. Old. Old. Those are the first four things that come to mind when thinking of this year's Knicks team. Letting Jeremy Lin go was understandable in many ways, and indefensible in many ways, but they had to at least go out and replace him with someone more reliable than Jason Kidd. A bigger loss might just be Landry Fields, who was a damn solid player off the bench for the Knicks. They have a great first lineup on paper, but just about everyone on that starting lineup has been injury prone, and with little to no depth on the bench, I just don't think this is their year. Kidd is alright, Novak is a specialist, Brewer might come into his own, but there just isn't a lot of guys you TRUST coming off the bench 5. Toronto Raptors 28-54 (23-43 last year)
Ok, so the Raptors are pretty bad, but they did improve in a few quality areas. Most notably is getting rid of a few of their random foreign bench guys in favor of guys that have actually played NBA minutes (Lowry and Fields). Unfortunately they are a small team. Bargnani isn't really a center, and is possibly the softest big man in the league...and Valuncianus isn't exactly projected to be a hell of a lot better. If they get hot shooting the ball, they can win some games. Otherwise, they will be in the basement once again.
With the Bulls missing Derrick Rose at least until 2013...this is the chance the Pacers needed to take over the top spot. Had an absolutely amazing year last year being 18 games over .500...and return pretty much the same lineup this year. Just lost Barbosa to the Celtics, but he didn't factor much last year anyway...able to pick up Gerald Green and Mahinmi in free agency. There is no reason to think that the Pacers will not continue the huge success that they had last year. Only reason I prevented them from being a 50 win team is the fact that they were so good on the road last year, and I really can't see them doing as well this year.
2. Chicago Bulls 46-36 (50-16 last year)
Pretty obvious reason why I am dropping them down 4 wins from what they got last year in a shortened season. I figure this team will be about .500 or possibly a little below that until Rose comes back. He is the lifeblood of this team, and when they did next to nothing in free agency they certainly didn't do themselves any favors. Hinrich is a proven point guard, and he can fill in respectively. Front line of Boozer, Noah, and Deng is very good for sure...but same with a few other teams this year, there is no depth. I wanted them to go out and show their muscle a little bit, but they stood pat. Still a dangerous team come playoff time however if Rose is fully back and healthy. 3. Cleveland Cavaliers 41-41 (21-45 last year)
Biggest bump up in their division because I think their young players will continue to step up. Irving is a legitimate point guard. Tristan Thompson can put up a double double. Zeller is a good backup, Alonzo Gee has the potential to be a Scottie Pippen-like player with his great defense. There is some new excitement in the city, and unless an injury seriously derails this team, they can turn some heads and will contend for the 8th playoff spot.
4. Milwaukee Bucks 39-43 (31-35 last year)
Prototypical .500 team in my eyes. No superstars at any position on the starting lineup, but also no guys that are scrubs either. A little bit on the smaller side of things, which is why I dropped them below .500 for the year. I like Jennings, Gooden, Ilysova, and Dalembert, but you don't want them as your top 4 guys. Also wondering if John Henson can break the string of UNC guys who have under-performed in the NBA as young players. 5. Detroit Pistons 35-47 (25-41 last year)
Although my record prediction doesn't show it, I like a lot of things that this Pistons team has the potential to do. Drummond and Monroe in the middle is damn solid. I think Brandon Knight has the potential to be an all-star caliber point guard. Bynum, Maxiell, and Daye returning as bench players are solid in most areas. Unfortunately I don't think it's enough to truly compete night in and night out in the NBA. My biggest reason for that is the fact that when it's tight in games in the 4th quarter...who are they going to go to? There is nobody on this team that I would truly trust with the ball under a minute in a one score game. To be a playoff contender in the NBA, you need that guy.
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CENTRAL DIVISION
1. Indiana Pacers 49-33 (42-24 last year)
With the Bulls missing Derrick Rose at least until 2013...this is the chance the Pacers needed to take over the top spot. Had an absolutely amazing year last year being 18 games over .500...and return pretty much the same lineup this year. Just lost Barbosa to the Celtics, but he didn't factor much last year anyway...able to pick up Gerald Green and Mahinmi in free agency. There is no reason to think that the Pacers will not continue the huge success that they had last year. Only reason I prevented them from being a 50 win team is the fact that they were so good on the road last year, and I really can't see them doing as well this year.
2. Chicago Bulls 46-36 (50-16 last year)
Pretty obvious reason why I am dropping them down 4 wins from what they got last year in a shortened season. I figure this team will be about .500 or possibly a little below that until Rose comes back. He is the lifeblood of this team, and when they did next to nothing in free agency they certainly didn't do themselves any favors. Hinrich is a proven point guard, and he can fill in respectively. Front line of Boozer, Noah, and Deng is very good for sure...but same with a few other teams this year, there is no depth. I wanted them to go out and show their muscle a little bit, but they stood pat. Still a dangerous team come playoff time however if Rose is fully back and healthy. 3. Cleveland Cavaliers 41-41 (21-45 last year)
Biggest bump up in their division because I think their young players will continue to step up. Irving is a legitimate point guard. Tristan Thompson can put up a double double. Zeller is a good backup, Alonzo Gee has the potential to be a Scottie Pippen-like player with his great defense. There is some new excitement in the city, and unless an injury seriously derails this team, they can turn some heads and will contend for the 8th playoff spot.
4. Milwaukee Bucks 39-43 (31-35 last year)
Prototypical .500 team in my eyes. No superstars at any position on the starting lineup, but also no guys that are scrubs either. A little bit on the smaller side of things, which is why I dropped them below .500 for the year. I like Jennings, Gooden, Ilysova, and Dalembert, but you don't want them as your top 4 guys. Also wondering if John Henson can break the string of UNC guys who have under-performed in the NBA as young players. 5. Detroit Pistons 35-47 (25-41 last year)
Although my record prediction doesn't show it, I like a lot of things that this Pistons team has the potential to do. Drummond and Monroe in the middle is damn solid. I think Brandon Knight has the potential to be an all-star caliber point guard. Bynum, Maxiell, and Daye returning as bench players are solid in most areas. Unfortunately I don't think it's enough to truly compete night in and night out in the NBA. My biggest reason for that is the fact that when it's tight in games in the 4th quarter...who are they going to go to? There is nobody on this team that I would truly trust with the ball under a minute in a one score game. To be a playoff contender in the NBA, you need that guy.
Won the championship last year and reloaded with Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen. Biggest problem I see for the Heat this year will be playing down to their competition...getting bored...and relying on the 3-point shot too often. They have an insane amount of deep shooters that are not shy about launching it (Allen, Jones, Lewis, James, Chalmers, Miller). If they can stay as aggressive as they were in the Finals, there is no doubt that they are once again the cream of the crop in the NBA.
2. Atlanta Hawks 45-37 (40-26 last year)
My questions on the Atlanta Hawks are probably the same questions that just about everyone else has about this team. How will the loss of Joe Johnson truly affect them? Can Devin Harris be the floor general for this team and distribute the ball to the scorers? Can Horford/Pachulia stay healthy the entire year and give this team an inside presence? My answers right now are...gaining Lou Williams and Kyle Korver will offset that, especially Williams who should play with a chip on his shoulder...probably not, Devin Harris has been used to scoring first, has only averaged 5 assists per game in his career, and has still yet to play 70 games in a season...Horford and Pachulia are solid inside, but need to beef up the rebounding numbers. 3. Washington Wizards 39-43 (20-46 last year)
Seeing a huge dropoff for the Magic in their rebuilding year, and the Bobcats aren't ready yet, so the third spot is definitely the Wizards'. John Wall finally has a few options to pass to rather than having to be the #1 option all the time. Nene will be a very good inside scorer that can do more than just dunk (McGee). Okafor is still a defensive presence inside the paint. Bradley Beal will be a sneaky good 3-point shooter with Wall driving to the hoop and kicking out. Problem is they are still a very young team, and need to get some big game experience before making the big time jump. 4. Orlando Magic 37-45 (37-29 last year)
Clearly in the rebuilding mode now without Dwight Howard. They aren't a terrible team by any stretch of the imagination as Turkoglu, Nelson, Davis, Harrington, Redick are all somewhat decent players. They absolutely made one of the all-time epic fuck-ups in the Dwight Howard deal however. All along they said that they needed Bynum and Gasol...they wouldn't let Howard go without getting that package...and they end up with nobody? Sorry Aaron Afflalo...they got nobody. 5. Charlotte Bobcats 22-60 (7-59 last year)
The good news is that they will improve on their 7 win total from last season. The good news is that Michael Kidd-Gilchrest has the potential to be a great wing scorer along with Walker, Sessions, and Gordon in the backcourt. The bad news is you are still the Charlotte Bobcats and bad shit will probably happen during the season that is well within your control. Not sold on the Biyombo, Thomas, Diop, Haywood frontcourt one bit.
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SOUTHEAST DIVISION
1. Miami Heat 57-25 (46-20 last year)
Won the championship last year and reloaded with Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen. Biggest problem I see for the Heat this year will be playing down to their competition...getting bored...and relying on the 3-point shot too often. They have an insane amount of deep shooters that are not shy about launching it (Allen, Jones, Lewis, James, Chalmers, Miller). If they can stay as aggressive as they were in the Finals, there is no doubt that they are once again the cream of the crop in the NBA.
2. Atlanta Hawks 45-37 (40-26 last year)
My questions on the Atlanta Hawks are probably the same questions that just about everyone else has about this team. How will the loss of Joe Johnson truly affect them? Can Devin Harris be the floor general for this team and distribute the ball to the scorers? Can Horford/Pachulia stay healthy the entire year and give this team an inside presence? My answers right now are...gaining Lou Williams and Kyle Korver will offset that, especially Williams who should play with a chip on his shoulder...probably not, Devin Harris has been used to scoring first, has only averaged 5 assists per game in his career, and has still yet to play 70 games in a season...Horford and Pachulia are solid inside, but need to beef up the rebounding numbers. 3. Washington Wizards 39-43 (20-46 last year)
Seeing a huge dropoff for the Magic in their rebuilding year, and the Bobcats aren't ready yet, so the third spot is definitely the Wizards'. John Wall finally has a few options to pass to rather than having to be the #1 option all the time. Nene will be a very good inside scorer that can do more than just dunk (McGee). Okafor is still a defensive presence inside the paint. Bradley Beal will be a sneaky good 3-point shooter with Wall driving to the hoop and kicking out. Problem is they are still a very young team, and need to get some big game experience before making the big time jump. 4. Orlando Magic 37-45 (37-29 last year)
Clearly in the rebuilding mode now without Dwight Howard. They aren't a terrible team by any stretch of the imagination as Turkoglu, Nelson, Davis, Harrington, Redick are all somewhat decent players. They absolutely made one of the all-time epic fuck-ups in the Dwight Howard deal however. All along they said that they needed Bynum and Gasol...they wouldn't let Howard go without getting that package...and they end up with nobody? Sorry Aaron Afflalo...they got nobody. 5. Charlotte Bobcats 22-60 (7-59 last year)
The good news is that they will improve on their 7 win total from last season. The good news is that Michael Kidd-Gilchrest has the potential to be a great wing scorer along with Walker, Sessions, and Gordon in the backcourt. The bad news is you are still the Charlotte Bobcats and bad shit will probably happen during the season that is well within your control. Not sold on the Biyombo, Thomas, Diop, Haywood frontcourt one bit.
its not official yet but can you give some insight like a little something..
Haven't even really looked at any of the opening games to be honest with you, but the Heat and Celtics almost always play close games...so 7 might be a little bit high. The Lakers I'm going to hold off on for at least a week or two to see how healthy Nash/Howard are and how they gel with Kobe. Almost the same scenario with the Cavs and Wizards as both teams were bad last year, but have a possibility to greatly improve. I would ride the home team on that one.
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Quote Originally Posted by emir2012:
what do you think about the opening games?
cle -5.5 v was mia -7 v bos lal - 8 v dal
its not official yet but can you give some insight like a little something..
Haven't even really looked at any of the opening games to be honest with you, but the Heat and Celtics almost always play close games...so 7 might be a little bit high. The Lakers I'm going to hold off on for at least a week or two to see how healthy Nash/Howard are and how they gel with Kobe. Almost the same scenario with the Cavs and Wizards as both teams were bad last year, but have a possibility to greatly improve. I would ride the home team on that one.
Haven't even really looked at any of the opening games to be honest with you, but the Heat and Celtics almost always play close games...so 7 might be a little bit high. The Lakers I'm going to hold off on for at least a week or two to see how healthy Nash/Howard are and how they gel with Kobe. Almost the same scenario with the Cavs and Wizards as both teams were bad last year, but have a possibility to greatly improve. I would ride the home team on that one.
coming from a guy in the states.. no wonder you think shit of the boys in Canada
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Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:
Haven't even really looked at any of the opening games to be honest with you, but the Heat and Celtics almost always play close games...so 7 might be a little bit high. The Lakers I'm going to hold off on for at least a week or two to see how healthy Nash/Howard are and how they gel with Kobe. Almost the same scenario with the Cavs and Wizards as both teams were bad last year, but have a possibility to greatly improve. I would ride the home team on that one.
coming from a guy in the states.. no wonder you think shit of the boys in Canada
1. Oklahoma City Thunder 58-24 (47-19 last season)
Made the Finals and lost, and are hoping for the same result that happened to the Heat the year before. Coming into this season with essentially the same exact team as last year, which is a good thing. They are young, and have played together for a while now. No reason to try and break things up by bringing in a veteran guy that can chew away the minutes. Westbrook is the point guard and the flow leader for this team, but he can be way over-emotional at times, which scares me. If he can continue to figure out when to attack and when to defer...they will be the favorites in the West.
2. Denver Nuggets 46-36 (38-28 last year)
Turned Afflalo and Harrington into Iguodala and McGee...pretty damn solid upgrade if you ask me. Unfortunately where I think this team will fail is on the defensive end of the court. McGee is a good defender when he wants to be, but has also been known to check out of games and not care as much as he should. It is no secret that the Nuggets generally have the mindset of "just outscore them"...and I think this will have to be even more so this season. 3. Utah Jazz 43-39 (36-30 last year)
I'm not a huge fan of Mo Williams running the point guard position. He seems a lot more comfortable as a #2 guard, and setting up the shot more than dishing out assists. Their front line of Milsap, Jefferson, Williams, Favors, and Kanter is one of the best in the league however, and should be able to control the boards enough to offset their below average backcourt. As with just about any team, one injury to a starting player and they could submarine out of playoff contention real fast. Either way, I see the Jazz as still being a quality playoff caliber team.
4. Portland Trailblazers 34-48 (28-38 last year)
Was going to have them in the last place position in this division until the Kevin Love injury this week. Unless Lillard comes absolutely out of nowhere and is at a Kyrie Irving level or better, they don't have anywhere close to a solid backcourt. Wes Matthews is a good player along with Batum and Aldridge, but when I look at this team I don't see anything special. I put them to the test of who gets the ball in the last minute of the game when they need a bucket and couldn't find an answer...Aldridge is their best player, but doesn't have a plethora of moves. They can be competitive, but won't win a lot of games.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves 28-54 (26-40 last year)
The Kevin Love injury just absolutely kills the Wolves right out of the blocks IMO. He is clearly their best player, and the focal point of the offense and defense. Now they have no depth, no rebounding, and no outside shooting away from Brandon Roy occasionally. The 6-8 weeks number puts his just after Christmas...which is 25 or so games into the season with 14 of those games on the road. I really can't put them above 8-17 in those games, and that's a best case scenario. Sucks for my fantasy team as well who took Love with my first pick.
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NORTHWEST DIVISION
1. Oklahoma City Thunder 58-24 (47-19 last season)
Made the Finals and lost, and are hoping for the same result that happened to the Heat the year before. Coming into this season with essentially the same exact team as last year, which is a good thing. They are young, and have played together for a while now. No reason to try and break things up by bringing in a veteran guy that can chew away the minutes. Westbrook is the point guard and the flow leader for this team, but he can be way over-emotional at times, which scares me. If he can continue to figure out when to attack and when to defer...they will be the favorites in the West.
2. Denver Nuggets 46-36 (38-28 last year)
Turned Afflalo and Harrington into Iguodala and McGee...pretty damn solid upgrade if you ask me. Unfortunately where I think this team will fail is on the defensive end of the court. McGee is a good defender when he wants to be, but has also been known to check out of games and not care as much as he should. It is no secret that the Nuggets generally have the mindset of "just outscore them"...and I think this will have to be even more so this season. 3. Utah Jazz 43-39 (36-30 last year)
I'm not a huge fan of Mo Williams running the point guard position. He seems a lot more comfortable as a #2 guard, and setting up the shot more than dishing out assists. Their front line of Milsap, Jefferson, Williams, Favors, and Kanter is one of the best in the league however, and should be able to control the boards enough to offset their below average backcourt. As with just about any team, one injury to a starting player and they could submarine out of playoff contention real fast. Either way, I see the Jazz as still being a quality playoff caliber team.
4. Portland Trailblazers 34-48 (28-38 last year)
Was going to have them in the last place position in this division until the Kevin Love injury this week. Unless Lillard comes absolutely out of nowhere and is at a Kyrie Irving level or better, they don't have anywhere close to a solid backcourt. Wes Matthews is a good player along with Batum and Aldridge, but when I look at this team I don't see anything special. I put them to the test of who gets the ball in the last minute of the game when they need a bucket and couldn't find an answer...Aldridge is their best player, but doesn't have a plethora of moves. They can be competitive, but won't win a lot of games.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves 28-54 (26-40 last year)
The Kevin Love injury just absolutely kills the Wolves right out of the blocks IMO. He is clearly their best player, and the focal point of the offense and defense. Now they have no depth, no rebounding, and no outside shooting away from Brandon Roy occasionally. The 6-8 weeks number puts his just after Christmas...which is 25 or so games into the season with 14 of those games on the road. I really can't put them above 8-17 in those games, and that's a best case scenario. Sucks for my fantasy team as well who took Love with my first pick.
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 1. San Antonio Spurs 53-29 (50-16 last season)
Just can't bump them off the pedestal just yet. Yes they are old, but they roll out the same lineup year after year after year and continuously get the job done. The young guys continue to step up year after year (Green, Neal, Leonard, Mills). I really wanted to put the Mavs in this position due to their offseason pickups, but somehow some way the Spurs will get the division title again.
2. Dallas Mavericks 50-32 (36-30 last year)
Jason Kidd turned into Darren Collison...win. Jason Terry turned into OJ Mayo...push, maybe a slight decrease. Brendan Haywood turned in Chris Kaman and Elton Brand...huge freakin win. We all know that Dirk has never been known for his inside play and rebounding, but that's what has held them back. Now with two legitimate big bodies down low they have the muscle to go up against any of the bigger teams in the West. Unfortunately it's the Mavericks, and they will find a way to stumble during a stretch in the year, and the Spurs will take advantage of that.
3. Memphis Grizzlies 43-39 (41-25 last year)
Last year they were still running on the adrenaline from the year before. Now they lose some serious depth with Mayo...and that's their biggest downfall in my opinion. Starting lineup is very good from top to bottom, but if there is an injury they are screwed. Marc Gasol also had the Olympic games take up a majority of his summer, and I'm sure there will be some slight fatigue for the big man. Definitely would have liked to see them add some free agent depth in the offseason. 4. Houston Rockets 31-51 (34-32 last year)
Guess who doesn't believe a single shred of Linsanity? This guy. When I look at the best of the best in the point guard world, I focus on four major categories, and to be great you have to nail at least 2 or 3 of them....Size (Lin is list at 6'3", 200...but you know he is more like 6'1" 185)....Defensive ability (55 steals last year in 35 games was pretty solid, but he needs to get a little bit better)....Floor General/Composer (This is where he was lacking IMO, he has great ball skills and can drive to the hoop, but I didn't see him take charge as a PG last year)....HOLY SHIT PLAYS (Had a couple of them, but once teams got videotape on him, he declined really fast). So basically Lin can get steals, and put up some points, but isn't a floor general by any means, and lacks size to go up against many point guard. Not buying it. Waste of money Houston. Other than that they gave up their hustle guy (Scola) and their 3-point bench guy (Buddinger). Not a positive outlook. 5. New Orleans Hornets 26-56 (21-45 last year)
They have a good young nucleus for the future with Rivers and Davis. Picking up Ryan Anderson will allow them to spread the court nicely. I'm very interested to see if Davis' defensive prowess translates to the NBA game. He needs to put on some weight and muscle to truly be an NBA center...but he has the right attitude. Not sure about their #3/4 positions though...a little weak and thin at that spot. Certainly a team that is either one free agent or one more great draft pick away from contending for the playoffs again.
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SOUTHWEST DIVISION 1. San Antonio Spurs 53-29 (50-16 last season)
Just can't bump them off the pedestal just yet. Yes they are old, but they roll out the same lineup year after year after year and continuously get the job done. The young guys continue to step up year after year (Green, Neal, Leonard, Mills). I really wanted to put the Mavs in this position due to their offseason pickups, but somehow some way the Spurs will get the division title again.
2. Dallas Mavericks 50-32 (36-30 last year)
Jason Kidd turned into Darren Collison...win. Jason Terry turned into OJ Mayo...push, maybe a slight decrease. Brendan Haywood turned in Chris Kaman and Elton Brand...huge freakin win. We all know that Dirk has never been known for his inside play and rebounding, but that's what has held them back. Now with two legitimate big bodies down low they have the muscle to go up against any of the bigger teams in the West. Unfortunately it's the Mavericks, and they will find a way to stumble during a stretch in the year, and the Spurs will take advantage of that.
3. Memphis Grizzlies 43-39 (41-25 last year)
Last year they were still running on the adrenaline from the year before. Now they lose some serious depth with Mayo...and that's their biggest downfall in my opinion. Starting lineup is very good from top to bottom, but if there is an injury they are screwed. Marc Gasol also had the Olympic games take up a majority of his summer, and I'm sure there will be some slight fatigue for the big man. Definitely would have liked to see them add some free agent depth in the offseason. 4. Houston Rockets 31-51 (34-32 last year)
Guess who doesn't believe a single shred of Linsanity? This guy. When I look at the best of the best in the point guard world, I focus on four major categories, and to be great you have to nail at least 2 or 3 of them....Size (Lin is list at 6'3", 200...but you know he is more like 6'1" 185)....Defensive ability (55 steals last year in 35 games was pretty solid, but he needs to get a little bit better)....Floor General/Composer (This is where he was lacking IMO, he has great ball skills and can drive to the hoop, but I didn't see him take charge as a PG last year)....HOLY SHIT PLAYS (Had a couple of them, but once teams got videotape on him, he declined really fast). So basically Lin can get steals, and put up some points, but isn't a floor general by any means, and lacks size to go up against many point guard. Not buying it. Waste of money Houston. Other than that they gave up their hustle guy (Scola) and their 3-point bench guy (Buddinger). Not a positive outlook. 5. New Orleans Hornets 26-56 (21-45 last year)
They have a good young nucleus for the future with Rivers and Davis. Picking up Ryan Anderson will allow them to spread the court nicely. I'm very interested to see if Davis' defensive prowess translates to the NBA game. He needs to put on some weight and muscle to truly be an NBA center...but he has the right attitude. Not sure about their #3/4 positions though...a little weak and thin at that spot. Certainly a team that is either one free agent or one more great draft pick away from contending for the playoffs again.
This is a spectacular accomplishment. You are doing the forum a huge favour by posting this.
In the atlantic (the strongest division in nba, imo);
Chicago is so dependant on d-rose and there is talk he may be back in a few weeks, or not for the whole season. If he's back soon, they are 2 seed, if not, they could realistically not even make the playoffs.
Likewise, philly's success is completely dependant on the health of bynum. Healthy, they could be a top 4 seed, hurt, they struggle to make playoffs.
Brooklyn is a chemistry issue. I suspect they will a very good home team but a substantially below .500 road team. Heavy dependence on the starting 5. IMO, they could actually make some noise in the playoffs where rotations are shorter.
New york - you hit the nail on the head. Kidd doesn't cut it against the style point gaurd.
Toronto - The thing I like about this raptors squad is that although they have no real starts, they are truly 10 deep. I've been watching their games and Jonas Valenciunas is a special player. When it says 10 and 10 in the box score, that doesn't count his 10 tip outs, or his hard cuts to the basket to free up shooters. Obviously, lowry adds a new dimension as well,with a starting caliber pg backing him up. Outside shot at playoffs imo.
Can't wait to see what you have to say about the west.
0
CMJohnson,
This is a spectacular accomplishment. You are doing the forum a huge favour by posting this.
In the atlantic (the strongest division in nba, imo);
Chicago is so dependant on d-rose and there is talk he may be back in a few weeks, or not for the whole season. If he's back soon, they are 2 seed, if not, they could realistically not even make the playoffs.
Likewise, philly's success is completely dependant on the health of bynum. Healthy, they could be a top 4 seed, hurt, they struggle to make playoffs.
Brooklyn is a chemistry issue. I suspect they will a very good home team but a substantially below .500 road team. Heavy dependence on the starting 5. IMO, they could actually make some noise in the playoffs where rotations are shorter.
New york - you hit the nail on the head. Kidd doesn't cut it against the style point gaurd.
Toronto - The thing I like about this raptors squad is that although they have no real starts, they are truly 10 deep. I've been watching their games and Jonas Valenciunas is a special player. When it says 10 and 10 in the box score, that doesn't count his 10 tip outs, or his hard cuts to the basket to free up shooters. Obviously, lowry adds a new dimension as well,with a starting caliber pg backing him up. Outside shot at playoffs imo.
Can't wait to see what you have to say about the west.
This is a spectacular accomplishment. You are doing the forum a huge favour by posting this.
In the atlantic (the strongest division in nba, imo);
Chicago is so dependant on d-rose and there is talk he may be back in a few weeks, or not for the whole season. If he's back soon, they are 2 seed, if not, they could realistically not even make the playoffs.
Likewise, philly's success is completely dependant on the health of bynum. Healthy, they could be a top 4 seed, hurt, they struggle to make playoffs.
Brooklyn is a chemistry issue. I suspect they will a very good home team but a substantially below .500 road team. Heavy dependence on the starting 5. IMO, they could actually make some noise in the playoffs where rotations are shorter.
New york - you hit the nail on the head. Kidd doesn't cut it against the style point gaurd.
Toronto - The thing I like about this raptors squad is that although they have no real starts, they are truly 10 deep. I've been watching their games and Jonas Valenciunas is a special player. When it says 10 and 10 in the box score, that doesn't count his 10 tip outs, or his hard cuts to the basket to free up shooters. Obviously, lowry adds a new dimension as well,with a starting caliber pg backing him up. Outside shot at playoffs imo.
Can't wait to see what you have to say about the west.
Can't argue with your points on Philly, Brooklyn, or NY Knicks...but no matter how much I look at the Raptors, I just don't see it. This is a league of superstars and clutch players...they don't have them.
0
Quote Originally Posted by canadiantruth:
CMJohnson,
This is a spectacular accomplishment. You are doing the forum a huge favour by posting this.
In the atlantic (the strongest division in nba, imo);
Chicago is so dependant on d-rose and there is talk he may be back in a few weeks, or not for the whole season. If he's back soon, they are 2 seed, if not, they could realistically not even make the playoffs.
Likewise, philly's success is completely dependant on the health of bynum. Healthy, they could be a top 4 seed, hurt, they struggle to make playoffs.
Brooklyn is a chemistry issue. I suspect they will a very good home team but a substantially below .500 road team. Heavy dependence on the starting 5. IMO, they could actually make some noise in the playoffs where rotations are shorter.
New york - you hit the nail on the head. Kidd doesn't cut it against the style point gaurd.
Toronto - The thing I like about this raptors squad is that although they have no real starts, they are truly 10 deep. I've been watching their games and Jonas Valenciunas is a special player. When it says 10 and 10 in the box score, that doesn't count his 10 tip outs, or his hard cuts to the basket to free up shooters. Obviously, lowry adds a new dimension as well,with a starting caliber pg backing him up. Outside shot at playoffs imo.
Can't wait to see what you have to say about the west.
Can't argue with your points on Philly, Brooklyn, or NY Knicks...but no matter how much I look at the Raptors, I just don't see it. This is a league of superstars and clutch players...they don't have them.
PACIFIC DIVISION 1. Los Angeles Lakers 61-31 (41-25 last year)
Easily the best starting five in basketball. Once again lucked out in another "trade" to bring Dwight Howard over from Orlando. How they were able to keep Gasol I have no idea...but I suppose other teams feel threatened by the big bad Lakers and end up just giving in. Either way, they still lack depth...their bench is still relatively shitty. They are still an old team...their top 10 players average 31 years old...but with Nash and Bryant it's worse because of the extra battles they have gone through. So this won't just be a cake walk to the Finals for the Lakers. Much like the Heat in the first season, it takes time to adjust to the new styles of play. Nash's assists will go down simply because the ball will be in Kobe's hands more than he's used to. Howard still has a serious back issue that he needs to worry about. Either way, they reloaded in a huge way and are obvious Finals candidates.
2. Los Angeles Clippers 47-35 (40-26 last year)
Injuries are the biggest issue coming into the season, as Griffin and Paul just need to stay healthy for an entire season. This team nails the excitement level, and I absolutely love the bench depth that they were able to add in the offseason. Jamal Crawford is a Vinnie Johnson type player than can put up points in bunches. Lamar Odom is back in LA and should be in a good mood and will give this team veteran leadership, same with Matt Barnes and Grant Hill. They don't have a true backup point guard, but in every other area of the game they are strong. 3. Golden State Warriors 41-41 (23-43 last year)
Another team making a big move up from last season. They are probably going to linger around the .500 mark because they are a legitimate 10-deep team. They have borderline superstars with Monta Ellis, David Lee, and Steph Curry...added veterans Jack, Jefferson, Bogut, and Landry. If they can avoid a lot of injuries, this team should be just fine and be in the hunt for the eighth playoff spot.
4. Sacramento Kings 36-46 (22-44 last year)
They certainly didn't bring over any talent in free agency, but have once again had a solid draft. I like Isiah Thomas running the point for this team...if Cousins can keep his head on straight he can be a force on the offensive end. Tyreke Evans continues to improve and look like he's a budding star. Jason Thompson and Thomas Robinson are damn good inside players on both ends of the court. This could be an exciting team this year. 5. Phoenix Suns 28-54 (33-33 last year)
When you look at this team, there should only be one thing that crosses your mind...rebuilding year. The good thing is they won't be absolutely terrible because Scola is a damn good player, Gortat can put up numbers consistently, I think Wes Johnson now has a chance to step up and be the star of this team, Beasley has shown a slight turnaround, and Dragic has explosive capabilities. They aren't good by any stretch, but they aren't terrible either.
0
PACIFIC DIVISION 1. Los Angeles Lakers 61-31 (41-25 last year)
Easily the best starting five in basketball. Once again lucked out in another "trade" to bring Dwight Howard over from Orlando. How they were able to keep Gasol I have no idea...but I suppose other teams feel threatened by the big bad Lakers and end up just giving in. Either way, they still lack depth...their bench is still relatively shitty. They are still an old team...their top 10 players average 31 years old...but with Nash and Bryant it's worse because of the extra battles they have gone through. So this won't just be a cake walk to the Finals for the Lakers. Much like the Heat in the first season, it takes time to adjust to the new styles of play. Nash's assists will go down simply because the ball will be in Kobe's hands more than he's used to. Howard still has a serious back issue that he needs to worry about. Either way, they reloaded in a huge way and are obvious Finals candidates.
2. Los Angeles Clippers 47-35 (40-26 last year)
Injuries are the biggest issue coming into the season, as Griffin and Paul just need to stay healthy for an entire season. This team nails the excitement level, and I absolutely love the bench depth that they were able to add in the offseason. Jamal Crawford is a Vinnie Johnson type player than can put up points in bunches. Lamar Odom is back in LA and should be in a good mood and will give this team veteran leadership, same with Matt Barnes and Grant Hill. They don't have a true backup point guard, but in every other area of the game they are strong. 3. Golden State Warriors 41-41 (23-43 last year)
Another team making a big move up from last season. They are probably going to linger around the .500 mark because they are a legitimate 10-deep team. They have borderline superstars with Monta Ellis, David Lee, and Steph Curry...added veterans Jack, Jefferson, Bogut, and Landry. If they can avoid a lot of injuries, this team should be just fine and be in the hunt for the eighth playoff spot.
4. Sacramento Kings 36-46 (22-44 last year)
They certainly didn't bring over any talent in free agency, but have once again had a solid draft. I like Isiah Thomas running the point for this team...if Cousins can keep his head on straight he can be a force on the offensive end. Tyreke Evans continues to improve and look like he's a budding star. Jason Thompson and Thomas Robinson are damn good inside players on both ends of the court. This could be an exciting team this year. 5. Phoenix Suns 28-54 (33-33 last year)
When you look at this team, there should only be one thing that crosses your mind...rebuilding year. The good thing is they won't be absolutely terrible because Scola is a damn good player, Gortat can put up numbers consistently, I think Wes Johnson now has a chance to step up and be the star of this team, Beasley has shown a slight turnaround, and Dragic has explosive capabilities. They aren't good by any stretch, but they aren't terrible either.
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Looking forward to your write ups.
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