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Who thinks Yanks are a steal @ -110?

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Posted: #51
I WILL PUT $500.00 ON THE YANKS I THINK YOU WILL NEVER SEE THIS LINES AGAINS ON THEM
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:

im on the yanks big. shields sucks vs the bombers


Shields vs. the Bombers is 1-2 with a 1.77 ERA.
He just isn't getting the run support he needs.
Be careful guys...
Under looks sharp though.

 
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Posted: #53

There was some disagreement among the Rays whether 6-4 was a good finish on their second half opening road trip or disappointing since they started 3-0.

But there was no debate over whether the homestand which starts Monday could be a huge key to determining their success this season.

"It's huge," said RHP James Shields. "I think this is one of those homestands that could set the tone for the rest of the season."

 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by PAZ-MAN:


why crazy to bet against the yankees? even they will lose 60 games this year! I guess i'm crazy! Give me Tampa Bay!!!



PAZ MAN - you answered your own question. If the Yanks lose 60 games this year - that means they win 120. I don't like the idea of trying to find my spots for those 60 games. The odds are that the Yanks will burn you more often than not if betting against them. But,  hey - to each his won. Perhaps tonight is one of the 60 times the Yanks lose. I'm more willing to bet that tonight is one of the 120 times they win. And if I can get them at -110 - I will bite every time.

BOL to you and everyone   
 
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Posted: #55
correction - my math is off today - forgive it's monday. I meant to say they'll win  100 games not 120
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by Kaufee:




PAZ MAN - you answered your own question. If the Yanks lose 60 games this year - that means they win 120. I don't like the idea of trying to find my spots for those 60 games. The odds are that the Yanks will burn you more often than not if betting against them. But,  hey - to each his won. Perhaps tonight is one of the 60 times the Yanks lose. I'm more willing to bet that tonight is one of the 120 times they win. And if I can get them at -110 - I will bite every time.

BOL to you and everyone   

that's what i mean, you have to pick your spots and i think this is one of those spots that they lose. if you had bet the yankees in every road game, you are down $$$! so when you do bet against them it should be when they're on the road like tonight!  
 
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Posted: #57
nevermind...logged out, then back in and it was up again
 
weird.....
 
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Posted: #58
I'm on the Yanks tonight.  I wouldn't put much stock in what pitcher's past records vs teams dating back a few years ago.  You guys should see what the guys from the Marlins were hitting vs Jason Schmidt before his last start.  The point is that a couple of years is a big difference.  Decisions should be based on what has happened this year.  Recently the Yanks are smoking hot and the Rays have been struggling a bit with the bats.
 
BOL to everyone on the Yanks tonight
 
 
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by WiLdCaRd88:



Shields vs. the Bombers is 1-2 with a 1.77 ERA.
He just isn't getting the run support he needs.
Be careful guys...
Under looks sharp though.



These are last year's stats and you would be crazy not to consider past performances against starting pitchers into your handicapping @ spidermonkey224.

 
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Posted: #60
If it seems like a steal or great value, you might want to think twice ... I mean books don't just give away money ... if everyone or a majority of people are on the yanks the books aren't getting 50-50 action .... you got to image that yanks at -110 scream square/trap ... I like the rays tonight ... and btw those saying they don't care about past stats what is it that you look at when you bet on games?
 
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Posted: #61
like the way burnett is pitching...good value on the AL east leader IMHO
Stay safe and play smart
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by Kaufee:




PAZ MAN - you answered your own question. If the Yanks lose 60 games this year - that means they win 120. I don't like the idea of trying to find my spots for those 60 games. The odds are that the Yanks will burn you more often than not if betting against them. But,  hey - to each his won. Perhaps tonight is one of the 60 times the Yanks lose. I'm more willing to bet that tonight is one of the 120 times they win. And if I can get them at -110 - I will bite every time.

BOL to you and everyone   


If you had bet on the Yankees every game this season you'd be up only one measly unit.
 
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Posted: #63
Yanks are a reasonable pick tonight at that price.
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by Kaufee:




PAZ MAN - you answered your own question. If the Yanks lose 60 games this year - that means they win 120. I don't like the idea of trying to find my spots for those 60 games. The odds are that the Yanks will burn you more often than not if betting against them. But,  hey - to each his won. Perhaps tonight is one of the 60 times the Yanks lose. I'm more willing to bet that tonight is one of the 120 times they win. And if I can get them at -110 - I will bite every time.

BOL to you and everyone   


The Yankees are an unremarkable 6-7 (-2.1 units) on the road this season with a money line of -100 to -125. 
 
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Posted: #65

Quote Originally Posted by WiLdCaRd88:



These are last year's stats and you would be crazy not to consider past performances against starting pitchers into your handicapping @ spidermonkey224.

I was referring more to the stats saying Shields has X era vs the Yanks in the past 4 years because the lineups then and now are quite different.  Definately consider invidual player performance vs starting pitchers.  I think there is a difference between those two.  Perhaps I didn't articulate clearly enough before.

 
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Posted: #66
I know the Yankees look completely indestructible right now after eviscerating the A's and O's but let's see how they fare against some stiffer competition.  The Rays are really going to get up for this series.
 
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Posted: #67
Who would agree that the Phillies' lines against the Cubs were "a steal"? The first game was -113...they won. The 2nd game was -126...they won. Then they basically even and lost.
 
Here is another example...the first game after the All-Star break the Rockies were favored at -125. The line barely moved all day, and it was a very fishy line. Rocies' Cook was on the mound on the road against a shitty Padres' pitcher and was only -125? This was one of those games where Mr Bator took the Padres for every thing they offered because of the fact that they looked too easy. Well the Rockies won 10-1. So this means that lines "weird" lines are meaningless. Sometimes they're right...sometimes they're wrong. Tonight...I think they're wrong.
 
All I know for sure is that tonight's ingame thread will be an eventful one.
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by spidermonkey224:

I'm on the Yanks tonight.  I wouldn't put much stock in what pitcher's past records vs teams dating back a few years ago.  You guys should see what the guys from the Marlins were hitting vs Jason Schmidt before his last start.  The point is that a couple of years is a big difference.  Decisions should be based on what has happened this year.  Recently the Yanks are smoking hot and the Rays have been struggling a bit with the bats.
 
BOL to everyone on the Yanks tonight
 
 

 

Nice..........Comparing a guy that is on his 2nd start back from Tommy John surgery to James Shields......Now I see why Vegas keeps growing bigger and bigger each year.....

 
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Posted: #69

Quote Originally Posted by ValueforRent:



If you had bet on the Yankees every game this season you'd be up only one measly unit.

It's a better outcome than if you faded them every game this season.

 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by Sparky10191:

Who would agree that the Phillies' lines against the Cubs were "a steal"? The first game was -113...they won. The 2nd game was -126...they won. Then they basically even and lost.
 
Here is another example...the first game after the All-Star break the Rockies were favored at -125. The line barely moved all day, and it was a very fishy line. Rocies' Cook was on the mound on the road against a shitty Padres' pitcher and was only -125? This was one of those games where Mr Bator took the Padres for every thing they offered because of the fact that they looked too easy. Well the Rockies won 10-1. So this means that lines "weird" lines are meaningless. Sometimes they're right...sometimes they're wrong. Tonight...I think they're wrong.
 
All I know for sure is that tonight's ingame thread will be an eventful one.

 

Come on Sparky you are smarter and this......Of course they are going to lose a game here and there because they are not going to get everyone of them right.....I really cant see the Yanks being favored by too much here. The Rays are tough at home and Vegas knows that....I mean How in the world do they make this line Yanks -130 tonight ???  I would be all over Tampa at that price....I dont think there is anything wrong with the line tonight as I think that the Yanks should be favored by a little.

 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by Papi_4_MVP:

 

Nice..........Comparing a guy that is on his 2nd start back from Tommy John surgery to James Shields......Now I see why Vegas keeps growing bigger and bigger each year.....

Haha, thanks for the laugh.  It's called a hyperbole.  You are supposed to realive that it's not a serious comparison but an extreme example to show my opinion that pitchers and hitters can change greatly from year to year so I prefer basing decisions more on recent trends than trends dating back years ago.

I'm rolling at 32-12-1 +12.5 Units in the 2nd half.  Vegas and I are getting along just fine. 

 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by Sparky10191:

So this means that lines "weird" lines are meaningless. Sometimes they're right...sometimes they're wrong. Tonight...I think they're wrong.
 


Of course sometimes they are wrong. Nobody is claiming 100% accuracy here. But they are right more than they are wrong, and if you're a long-term bettor, that is all that matters.

I asked this to somebody else and didn't get an answer. If Pinny hired you to make the line for tonight's game, instructing you to draw as close as possible even action on both sides, what would you make it?
 
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Posted: #73
Type: "realize"
 
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Posted: #74
I fucked that up
 
 
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Posted: #75
lol this thread is too funny... the Yankees are probably going to get swept and if not the Rays will definately take 2 of 3. Laugh at me all you want, just sit back and watch it happen.
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