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Tuesdays Plays

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Posted: #76
Hey AJ, serious question (for you and anyone else): do you ever look at the contrarian angle side of things when making bets?

For example, today, KC v OAK. Per Wagerline, KC is drawing around 56% of all wagers and they are +119. OAK, on the other hand, is drawing 44% of wagers and are -127.

Attempting to read the tea leaves, it appears as if "the books" are inviting wagers on and backing OAK. Do you put any stock into that line of thinking?


 
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Posted: #77
AJ, you like the Chi Sox/Indians over with Meals behind the plate?  I'm leaning towards the Sox TT myself...
 
Also, I'm hearing Fletcher in New York, with Jurrjens and Pelfrey (who has pitched good enough this year) on the mound the under looks good in this one.  Thoughts?
 
 
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Posted: #78
Hey AJ,

I never post in your thread, but read em every day.

Had to post today to say congrats on your Hawks!  I'm a Stars fan, but originally from Rockford, so I'm really rooting hard for Chi-town.  BOL, AJ.
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by Mike_NYC:

Hey AJ, serious question (for you and anyone else): do you ever look at the contrarian angle side of things when making bets?

For example, today, KC v OAK. Per Wagerline, KC is drawing around 56% of all wagers and they are +119. OAK, on the other hand, is drawing 44% of wagers and are -127.

Attempting to read the tea leaves, it appears as if "the books" are inviting wagers on and backing OAK. Do you put any stock into that line of thinking?




Sorry - that should read, inviting wagers on KC and backing OAK.
 
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Posted: #80
Original six conference final... should be a lot of fun. GL today, and nice yesterday as well, Congrats to the Hawks.
 
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Posted: #81
Like it. Manny is on my Roid list.
 
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Posted: #82

Quote Originally Posted by Mike_NYC:



Sorry - that should read, inviting wagers on KC and backing OAK.

I read a good article yesterday (GH's thread I think) about how "public" betting in baseball is WAY down. So basically you have a war between the books and sharps. A majority of the line moves is because of the wiseguys, NOT the public. And the books can't inflate the lines on the marquee teams because they've all started off slow.....shit I lost my train of thought. Well anyway, I'll get a link to the article if anyone is interested. I think it's a very good read.

 
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Posted: #83
 
post 68 & 69
 
For anyone who missed this...it's a MUST READ
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by musashi:

these pretzels..............................are making me THIRSTY.
 
 

 

Haha are they just airing Seinfeld now over there?

 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by AJLightning:

I read a good article yesterday (GH's thread I think) about how "public" betting in baseball is WAY down. So basically you have a war between the books and sharps. A majority of the line moves is because of the wiseguys, NOT the public. And the books can't inflate the lines on the marquee teams because they've all started off slow.....shit I lost my train of thought. Well anyway, I'll get a link to the article if anyone is interested. I think it's a very good read.



Interesting read, thanks. Although I do wish he had a link to cite to back up his information.
 
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Posted: #86
what's ump??
 
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Posted: #87
RL for me
 
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Posted: #88
 
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Posted: #89
 
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Posted: #90
Like the Phillies too, for the first time with Park on the mound (who I think is a big mistake by my Phillies to keep in the rotation...).
Kershaw have only two bad outings his year, BUT both of them was on the road (@COL - good offense, @HOU - only avg offense) and he's faced teams like SD, SF and the Nats (where he got in trouble almost every inning and lasted only for 5 innings with a 99 PC, 33 pitches in the 1st inning)...

Also like Angels with Weaver who was great in his last outing, at home and won against the Sox in his season opener. Masterson is up for the Red Sox who have a 7.36 in 11 IP on ther road, gave up 3 runs in his start against Angels this year and got two games in a row where he's given up 6 runs in 6 IP (@TB and vs CLE)

Also like Brewers (had a feeling on them already on work before knowing the pitchers) even tho Parra isn't the greatest pitcher hes up against Koronka who havn't pitched in the Majors since 07 where he had a 0-2 record with a 7.84 in 10.1 IP and his career record is 8-11 with a 6.02 ERA in 151 IP..
 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by clkclass:

Like it. Manny is on my Roid list.

I was wondering when someone was going to post the obvious (opposing) message lol... well said.

 
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Posted: #92

This thread is on the "fade" list.

 

 
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Posted: #93
 
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Posted: #94
Best of luck today AJ. Keep up the good work.
 
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Posted: #95
Like it.  Dodgers are on the fade list.
 
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Posted: #97
 
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Posted: #98
 GL AJ
 
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Posted: #99
Whats the o/u on this blonde? 19?
 
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by Mike_NYC:

Hey AJ, serious question (for you and anyone else): do you ever look at the contrarian angle side of things when making bets?

For example, today, KC v OAK. Per Wagerline, KC is drawing around 56% of all wagers and they are +119. OAK, on the other hand, is drawing 44% of wagers and are -127.

Attempting to read the tea leaves, it appears as if "the books" are inviting wagers on and backing OAK. Do you put any stock into that line of thinking?




I look at it but hardly ever let if affect anything I do. To be honest, I let it affect me twice all year. Once was the White Sox against Adam Eaton. The White Sox seemed like such an easy pick and I would have taken them until I saw that line and the way it moved. I laid off the game and the sox lost 6-2. The other time was Lincecum vs C Young. The Giants seemed like a pretty good play but the line said otherwise. I actually threw a unit on the Padres and they won 6-1. Other than those two instances it hasnt been a factor for me.
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