The "public" is the average gambler who takes the play that looks as if it can't lose and goes into betting that game with that mindset...which is why books always win. Because there is much more of the "public" than sharps.
And, I know what it's like to be a part of the "public". I have that mindset when I take a quick glance at a game. And, at a quick glance, the Red Sox are a no brainer because the line is so low. And if I have that mindset...that means many others do as well and it would get more people to jump on this low line.
On the other hand...why isn't the line -120? I'm sure Lackey and the Red Sox v Mills and the Jays could draw a bunch of the "public's" bets at that line as well. Maybe this is one of those traps where it looks too good to be true so people may think to take the other side just to realize that it was a trap and the Red Sox were the right choice.
A lot to think about but I was liking the way I was gambling the last few days (aside from last night) so I'm going to track this to see how it works out from now until the end of the season.
I tend to see it this way too. a good example of this was DET vs. CHW...sherzer and freddy G. Sherzer got a -140 and ended at -155....
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Quote Originally Posted by Sparky10191:
The "public" is the average gambler who takes the play that looks as if it can't lose and goes into betting that game with that mindset...which is why books always win. Because there is much more of the "public" than sharps.
And, I know what it's like to be a part of the "public". I have that mindset when I take a quick glance at a game. And, at a quick glance, the Red Sox are a no brainer because the line is so low. And if I have that mindset...that means many others do as well and it would get more people to jump on this low line.
On the other hand...why isn't the line -120? I'm sure Lackey and the Red Sox v Mills and the Jays could draw a bunch of the "public's" bets at that line as well. Maybe this is one of those traps where it looks too good to be true so people may think to take the other side just to realize that it was a trap and the Red Sox were the right choice.
A lot to think about but I was liking the way I was gambling the last few days (aside from last night) so I'm going to track this to see how it works out from now until the end of the season.
I tend to see it this way too. a good example of this was DET vs. CHW...sherzer and freddy G. Sherzer got a -140 and ended at -155....
No record posting and a losing record with that said typing paragraphs and paragraphs about the "public".
So why aren't you winning dude?
he is trying something out and just started. a one week sample is not even close to enough to make a judgement call. c'mon depressed i know you're smarter than that.
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Quote Originally Posted by depressed:
No record posting and a losing record with that said typing paragraphs and paragraphs about the "public".
So why aren't you winning dude?
he is trying something out and just started. a one week sample is not even close to enough to make a judgement call. c'mon depressed i know you're smarter than that.
Maybe this is one of those traps where it looks too good to be true so people may think to take the other side just to realize that it was a trap and the Red Sox were the right choice.
Or maybe you're a losing gambler like nearly everyone else is so one week you blame a cold streak on your plays being public, then you blame a hot streak on the same shit. The truth is, you don't know what you're doing. Traps are a myth.
Get over it.
It's pathetic so many people have to read nonsense like this and since you have 47,312 posts people will "respect" it.
You don't know what you're doing.
You don't.
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Quote Originally Posted by Sparky10191:
Maybe this is one of those traps where it looks too good to be true so people may think to take the other side just to realize that it was a trap and the Red Sox were the right choice.
Or maybe you're a losing gambler like nearly everyone else is so one week you blame a cold streak on your plays being public, then you blame a hot streak on the same shit. The truth is, you don't know what you're doing. Traps are a myth.
Get over it.
It's pathetic so many people have to read nonsense like this and since you have 47,312 posts people will "respect" it.
he is trying something out and just started. a one week sample is not even close to enough to make a judgement call. c'mon depressed i know you're smarter than that.
I'm talking about his entire season. And if you remember from a year or 2 ago, I forget, Sparky was easily -100 units in baseball. What happened to his record from this season?
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Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:
he is trying something out and just started. a one week sample is not even close to enough to make a judgement call. c'mon depressed i know you're smarter than that.
I'm talking about his entire season. And if you remember from a year or 2 ago, I forget, Sparky was easily -100 units in baseball. What happened to his record from this season?
been betting only +money for the past month & up 18 units w/ a 51% record.. Baseball is my fav. sport to bet, because there is always an angle whether it be the RL or buying 1/2 point less on the o/u to get +money.. Not picking faves & playing only dogs, RL & buying points the opposite way on the o/u is the best way to make money in bases imo.
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Quote Originally Posted by depressed:
The books always win because of juice.
been betting only +money for the past month & up 18 units w/ a 51% record.. Baseball is my fav. sport to bet, because there is always an angle whether it be the RL or buying 1/2 point less on the o/u to get +money.. Not picking faves & playing only dogs, RL & buying points the opposite way on the o/u is the best way to make money in bases imo.
Anyway good luck on your picks for Thursday but the old Sparky with writeups containing information on how pitchers have performed lately was a far better read than this Area-51 bullshit. Your problem was you chased and played 10 games a day even when things were going bad.
0
Anyway good luck on your picks for Thursday but the old Sparky with writeups containing information on how pitchers have performed lately was a far better read than this Area-51 bullshit. Your problem was you chased and played 10 games a day even when things were going bad.
Sparky you know baseball man, you gotta have the mindset of winning when you start playing..
i remember reading the other day that you deposited a grand & said well we'll see how long this lasts.. Your first problem is that you don't believe you can ACTUALLY WIN!! You can man, believe it & go off of your knowledge of the sport & start making some money..
You have the attitude of a loser right now & imo you are one of the dudes on this site that knows the most about baseball... Just start believing that you can win, use your knowledge for the sport & start picking winners-- you got this
sorry if this came across harsh, it's like anything tho.. You go into anything w/ an attitude of not being able to get the job done you're not going to. Betting is all about being positive & believing that you can accomplish what you're setting out to do, it maybe hasn't ever been done for you Sparky, but w/ a little belief i think you can make a lot of dough doing this. GL man
0
Sparky you know baseball man, you gotta have the mindset of winning when you start playing..
i remember reading the other day that you deposited a grand & said well we'll see how long this lasts.. Your first problem is that you don't believe you can ACTUALLY WIN!! You can man, believe it & go off of your knowledge of the sport & start making some money..
You have the attitude of a loser right now & imo you are one of the dudes on this site that knows the most about baseball... Just start believing that you can win, use your knowledge for the sport & start picking winners-- you got this
sorry if this came across harsh, it's like anything tho.. You go into anything w/ an attitude of not being able to get the job done you're not going to. Betting is all about being positive & believing that you can accomplish what you're setting out to do, it maybe hasn't ever been done for you Sparky, but w/ a little belief i think you can make a lot of dough doing this. GL man
No record posting and a losing record with that said typing paragraphs and paragraphs about the "public".
So why aren't you winning dude?
Because I have been trying to fade the "public" play for just a few days now. As you posted in post #34...the "public" cleaned up today. I had plus money until today when teams who had 51% or more of the bets come in on them won 11 times while only 4 lost.
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Quote Originally Posted by depressed:
No record posting and a losing record with that said typing paragraphs and paragraphs about the "public".
So why aren't you winning dude?
Because I have been trying to fade the "public" play for just a few days now. As you posted in post #34...the "public" cleaned up today. I had plus money until today when teams who had 51% or more of the bets come in on them won 11 times while only 4 lost.
Anyway good luck on your picks for Thursday but the old Sparky with writeups containing information on how pitchers have performed lately was a far better read than this Area-51 bullshit. Your problem was you chased and played 10 games a day even when things were going bad.
i'm w/ depressed on this one, go w/ what you know & let the players on the field decide the game.
0
Quote Originally Posted by depressed:
Anyway good luck on your picks for Thursday but the old Sparky with writeups containing information on how pitchers have performed lately was a far better read than this Area-51 bullshit. Your problem was you chased and played 10 games a day even when things were going bad.
i'm w/ depressed on this one, go w/ what you know & let the players on the field decide the game.
I'm talking about his entire season. And if you remember from a year or 2 ago, I forget, Sparky was easily -100 units in baseball. What happened to his record from this season?
so if he does the opposite, then what?
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Quote Originally Posted by depressed:
I'm talking about his entire season. And if you remember from a year or 2 ago, I forget, Sparky was easily -100 units in baseball. What happened to his record from this season?
Or maybe you're a losing gambler like nearly everyone else is so one week you blame a cold streak on your plays being public, then you blame a hot streak on the same shit. The truth is, you don't know what you're doing. Traps are a myth.
Get over it.
It's pathetic so many people have to read nonsense like this and since you have 47,312 posts people will "respect" it.
You don't know what you're doing.
You don't.
I appreciate your thoughts. However...I'm trying somthing new out and giving it a go.
As for my post count...more people consider me a "loser" than respect me.
0
Quote Originally Posted by depressed:
Or maybe you're a losing gambler like nearly everyone else is so one week you blame a cold streak on your plays being public, then you blame a hot streak on the same shit. The truth is, you don't know what you're doing. Traps are a myth.
Get over it.
It's pathetic so many people have to read nonsense like this and since you have 47,312 posts people will "respect" it.
You don't know what you're doing.
You don't.
I appreciate your thoughts. However...I'm trying somthing new out and giving it a go.
As for my post count...more people consider me a "loser" than respect me.
I'm talking about his entire season. And if you remember from a year or 2 ago, I forget, Sparky was easily -100 units in baseball. What happened to his record from this season?
Actually...I started off the season on fire. Then...I started falling. I realized what I was doing wasn't working. So I took my money and ran. Last week, I decided to put more money into my account and try something else out and, until Wednesday, it was working.
You say I was down -100 units. Well...imagine if I faded myself on all those bets? 2 seasons ago, I would be taking the Red Sox in this spot. But who am I taking? The Jays.
As for my record this season, I have no idea what it is because I cashed out late April, early May.
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Quote Originally Posted by depressed:
I'm talking about his entire season. And if you remember from a year or 2 ago, I forget, Sparky was easily -100 units in baseball. What happened to his record from this season?
Actually...I started off the season on fire. Then...I started falling. I realized what I was doing wasn't working. So I took my money and ran. Last week, I decided to put more money into my account and try something else out and, until Wednesday, it was working.
You say I was down -100 units. Well...imagine if I faded myself on all those bets? 2 seasons ago, I would be taking the Red Sox in this spot. But who am I taking? The Jays.
As for my record this season, I have no idea what it is because I cashed out late April, early May.
Anyway good luck on your picks for Thursday but the old Sparky with writeups containing information on how pitchers have performed lately was a far better read than this Area-51 bullshit. Your problem was you chased and played 10 games a day even when things were going bad.
This is not true. I never chased. I only put plays that I had confidence in. I may have thrown a play out there for a day game once in a while for some action, but that's it.
As for my other writeups...what good are they if all the information is absolutely worthless? Cliff Lee is a much better pitcher than Vazquez. The Yankees still won. And as you stated, I lost in the past, so why lead people to losing picks with my information that might change their mind and eventually lead them to picking a loser?
It's just better this way.
0
Quote Originally Posted by depressed:
Anyway good luck on your picks for Thursday but the old Sparky with writeups containing information on how pitchers have performed lately was a far better read than this Area-51 bullshit. Your problem was you chased and played 10 games a day even when things were going bad.
This is not true. I never chased. I only put plays that I had confidence in. I may have thrown a play out there for a day game once in a while for some action, but that's it.
As for my other writeups...what good are they if all the information is absolutely worthless? Cliff Lee is a much better pitcher than Vazquez. The Yankees still won. And as you stated, I lost in the past, so why lead people to losing picks with my information that might change their mind and eventually lead them to picking a loser?
Sparky you know baseball man, you gotta have the mindset of winning when you start playing..
i remember reading the other day that you deposited a grand & said well we'll see how long this lasts.. Your first problem is that you don't believe you can ACTUALLY WIN!! You can man, believe it & go off of your knowledge of the sport & start making some money..
You have the attitude of a loser right now & imo you are one of the dudes on this site that knows the most about baseball... Just start believing that you can win, use your knowledge for the sport & start picking winners-- you got this
sorry if this came across harsh, it's like anything tho.. You go into anything w/ an attitude of not being able to get the job done you're not going to. Betting is all about being positive & believing that you can accomplish what you're setting out to do, it maybe hasn't ever been done for you Sparky, but w/ a little belief i think you can make a lot of dough doing this. GL man
Well I can't really having a winner's mentality. I went into all my bets with a winner's mentality and all that did was drain me quicker. I'm going into these games not as confident as my plays used to be, but with better "reasoning" behind them. If the "public" never profits, and I change my mentality from the one that used to be part of the "public" to one that is thinking more about going against the grain, and that makes me a profit, I don't care how confident I am.
I used what I knew about baseball to try and make money before and it didn't work. All my old writeups contained were just about everything you could find in the covers' matchups plus a little of my own knowledge in a large paragraph. Still didn't do me any good.
I'd be happy to give my opinion on games and who I think "should" win. But if you followed that span where I had the discussion thread and did a writeup of every game and had leans...my leans were losing at like a 35-40% clip, or something like that. Why? Because all the info I was giving out was the same stuff the linesmakers already know that everyone looks to make their plays. It just doesn't work.
And the way I've gone into this new deposit was with the mindset of "maybe I can finally make a profit out of this long term".
0
Quote Originally Posted by ldub004:
Sparky you know baseball man, you gotta have the mindset of winning when you start playing..
i remember reading the other day that you deposited a grand & said well we'll see how long this lasts.. Your first problem is that you don't believe you can ACTUALLY WIN!! You can man, believe it & go off of your knowledge of the sport & start making some money..
You have the attitude of a loser right now & imo you are one of the dudes on this site that knows the most about baseball... Just start believing that you can win, use your knowledge for the sport & start picking winners-- you got this
sorry if this came across harsh, it's like anything tho.. You go into anything w/ an attitude of not being able to get the job done you're not going to. Betting is all about being positive & believing that you can accomplish what you're setting out to do, it maybe hasn't ever been done for you Sparky, but w/ a little belief i think you can make a lot of dough doing this. GL man
Well I can't really having a winner's mentality. I went into all my bets with a winner's mentality and all that did was drain me quicker. I'm going into these games not as confident as my plays used to be, but with better "reasoning" behind them. If the "public" never profits, and I change my mentality from the one that used to be part of the "public" to one that is thinking more about going against the grain, and that makes me a profit, I don't care how confident I am.
I used what I knew about baseball to try and make money before and it didn't work. All my old writeups contained were just about everything you could find in the covers' matchups plus a little of my own knowledge in a large paragraph. Still didn't do me any good.
I'd be happy to give my opinion on games and who I think "should" win. But if you followed that span where I had the discussion thread and did a writeup of every game and had leans...my leans were losing at like a 35-40% clip, or something like that. Why? Because all the info I was giving out was the same stuff the linesmakers already know that everyone looks to make their plays. It just doesn't work.
And the way I've gone into this new deposit was with the mindset of "maybe I can finally make a profit out of this long term".
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Traps are a myth.
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