Today Is Thursday, And Wednesday Was ROUGH

8-14 -5.14 units

Finished 0-6. It was really a big day for the public. So, the old me would have cashed big time. Oh well...new day...small card...lets get to it.

Blue Jays
Waiting for the line to move in favor of the Sox. I'm going right back out and backing the Jays again even though it looks as if they should get crushed. But it's John Lackey v Brad Mills and the line is just about even? It simply makes no sense. Why aren't the Sox -120 or somthing like that? Mills has had 2 starts this season and 4 in his career and in 3 of those starts he gave up more runs than innings pitched. Yet this line is even? Just makes ZERO sense.

Another lean is the Rockies but that's not a play just yet. The Jays will be a play for sure.

BOL All. Have A Great day.

That's the thing. Why is the line even? It seems waaaaaay too fishy to me for this matchup, especially with the 2 pitchers who are on the mound.

In my opinion, I think this line SHOULD be at least -120. The thing is...why isn't it?

Quote Originally Posted by cmo1037:

maybe they're hoping everyone sees that the jays just swept the rays and mills threw 7 scoreless innings against balt on the 28th?

 i'm on the boston ml at -105

Or...after 2 offensive explosions from the Red Sox, some may think they shouldn't have a problem hitting the pitcher who gave up 5 runs in 4 innings against the Rays in his last start.

Yea...I can't see this line staying the way it is. I'll hold off and wait out the line.

Quote Originally Posted by 702underdog:

Im thinking the line is what it is because they are predicting this to be a shootout where both starters give up runs and its a bullpen game. The over looks like the better play. 

I don't know man. Lines are made more on the starting pitchers. And, while Lackey isn't pitching well, he's still a household name and has had his spots this season.

I don't know...I'm just trying to incorporate what I used to do and how I used to think and pretty much flip flop it.

But why isn't it?

Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:

love the new angle.  i can't seem to win either way though (sharp plays or not).  the best thing i got going is fading someone on the site (my new system).  this dude has a knack for picking the square plays.  

It usually works out that way. Everyone loved the Braves with Minor against Norris a few days ago and they got hammered. But I rather just have the mindset of "the public" and fade that play than search to see what everyone is taking.

The "public" is the average gambler who takes the play that looks as if it can't lose and goes into betting that game with that mindset...which is why books always win. Because there is much more of the "public" than sharps.

And, I know what it's like to be a part of the "public". I have that mindset when I take a quick glance at a game. And, at a quick glance, the Red Sox are a no brainer because the line is so low. And if I have that mindset...that means many others do as well and it would get more people to jump on this low line.

On the other hand...why isn't the line -120? I'm sure Lackey and the Red Sox v Mills and the Jays could draw a bunch of the "public's" bets at that line as well. Maybe this is one of those traps where it looks too good to be true so people may think to take the other side just to realize that it was a trap and the Red Sox were the right choice.

A lot to think about but I was liking the way I was gambling the last few days (aside from last night) so I'm going to track this to see how it works out from now until the end of the season.