Dallas had the lead ONCE at start of game. Lakers poured it on like their pants were on fire!
We had our second straight great week with NFL Trends & Angles, as we followed up our 8-2 ATS showing in Week 10 by going a terrific 9-3 ATS in Week 11 on an individual game basis! For those of you scoring at home, that makes 17-5, 77.3 percent ATS the past two weeks.
As those of you that have followed us in the past know, the vast majority of angles will point you to live underdogs and live ‘unders’ when we have total angles, and we kick things off this week with another fresh contrarian angle that will always land you on Bad Teams on losing streaks.
All of our season-long trends go back to 2005, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.
Also, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams, such as in this week’s aforementioned leading angle. We are not using those terms subjectively in those contexts, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games.
Here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 12, with all records since 2005 plus the first 11 weeks of this season.
Angle #1 - Play on any Bad Team in conference road games off of two losses (115-82-4, 58.4% ATS): The very definition of being contrarian is betting on teams that the general public wants no part of, and this angle combines three things that the public likes to avoid, as these are teams that are generally bad to begin with, they are on losing streaks and on the road. And yet, check out this winning percentage over a very nice-sized sampling. Qualifiers: Oakland +10, Carolina (Monday) -2.5 to -3 or ML.
Angle #2 - Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (71-48-5, 59.7% ATS since 2005): This
is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that
most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on
decided ATS losing streaks.. It has not made much difference whether or
not the team is now home (31-21-4 ATS) or away (40-27-1 ATS). This angle
lost its only play in Week 11 with the Eagles. Qualifier: Philadelphia
(Monday) (Contradiction to previous angle, QB Vick out, if you play take Carolina -2.5 to -3 or ML). Eagles lost last week with Vick out...
Angle #3 - Play on any Bad Team on the road that was an underdog in each of its last four games (99-64-2, 60.7% ATS):Playing this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the dregs of the league, and on the road no less! But that is precisely the point as these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a nice sampling. This angle went 2-0 in Week 11 with the Browns and Jaguars. Qualifier: Carolina (Monday) at -2.5 to -3 or ML.
Angle #4 - Play on any team that lost its last game by 28 or more points (92-59-4, 60.9% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. This angle lost its only play in Week 11. Qualifier: Indianapolis -2.5 to -3.
Angle #5 - Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (168-107-5, 61.1% ATS): The logic behind this angle is the same as the previous angle with two exceptions, as it does not matter if the team playing its second straight road game won or lost its previous game, and also it is restricted to conference game only as now facing a familiar foe lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack that foe and what to expect on defense. This angle went 2-1 in Week 11. Qualifiers: Baltimore -1 or ML and Green Bay +3 to +3.5.
Angle #6 - Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (84-46-4, 64.6% ATS): NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and the added time off oftentimes has resulted in any injured players the teams may have also having extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. This angle went a perfect 2-0 in Week 11. Qualifiers: New York Giants -2.5 to -3 (contradiction to GB), Seattle -2.5 to -3 and Tennessee -2.5 to -3.
Double angle, Carolina at -2.5 to -3 or ML. (2 unit play) (Will play ML if not that juicy as I think they will win this game).
Oakland chase would now be GM3 of 3, but I am playing small as the play fell into another system that would extend it to 2 more games, which is unacceptable. If you have chased Oak for 2 games, bet to get half of your money back, break even or small profit and take a GM3 loss or don't play, your choice. You can always add a small percentage of any NFL chase loss to several of the NBA chases until you get the money back. There is a decent chance they won't lose but like I said, I will attempt to break even on the GM3. Oakland is usually not a good bet on the road.
Other plays, I also like Miami +3.5 to +4, St Louis +2 (plus 3 if you can buy to that).
No parlays unless you want to use Tenn and/or Oak, strong McTrendz plays with Carolina (double angle). As it stands now at around 2am central it would be Oak +8.5, Car -3 and Tenn -3.
ok fine, Lakers/Clips Seasonal Chase now 14-4 ATS..but be careful my friend chasing the Lake show-they are built for perfection and they got many issues not the least among them public money skewing their value-something I'm sure you understand in Dallas with the Cowboys...
I predict they will not cover against many good teams this year...
USC-bad luck not scoring to cover twice in the 4th including timeout by their own IDIOT coach stopping a TD, but that's gambling...I did cover my loses on the UNDER though...
We had our second straight great week with NFL Trends & Angles, as we followed up our 8-2 ATS showing in Week 10 by going a terrific 9-3 ATS in Week 11 on an individual game basis! For those of you scoring at home, that makes 17-5, 77.3 percent ATS the past two weeks.
As those of you that have followed us in the past know, the vast majority of angles will point you to live underdogs and live ‘unders’ when we have total angles, and we kick things off this week with another fresh contrarian angle that will always land you on Bad Teams on losing streaks.
All of our season-long trends go back to 2005, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.
Also, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams, such as in this week’s aforementioned leading angle. We are not using those terms subjectively in those contexts, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games.
Here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 12, with all records since 2005 plus the first 11 weeks of this season.
Angle #1 - Play on any Bad Team in conference road games off of two losses (115-82-4, 58.4% ATS): The very definition of being contrarian is betting on teams that the general public wants no part of, and this angle combines three things that the public likes to avoid, as these are teams that are generally bad to begin with, they are on losing streaks and on the road. And yet, check out this winning percentage over a very nice-sized sampling. Qualifiers: Oakland +10, Carolina (Monday) -2.5 to -3 or ML.
Angle #2 - Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (71-48-5, 59.7% ATS since 2005): This
is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that
most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on
decided ATS losing streaks.. It has not made much difference whether or
not the team is now home (31-21-4 ATS) or away (40-27-1 ATS). This angle
lost its only play in Week 11 with the Eagles. Qualifier: Philadelphia
(Monday) (Contradiction to previous angle, QB Vick out, if you play take Carolina -2.5 to -3 or ML). Eagles lost last week with Vick out...
Angle #3 - Play on any Bad Team on the road that was an underdog in each of its last four games (99-64-2, 60.7% ATS):Playing this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the dregs of the league, and on the road no less! But that is precisely the point as these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a nice sampling. This angle went 2-0 in Week 11 with the Browns and Jaguars. Qualifier: Carolina (Monday) at -2.5 to -3 or ML.
Angle #4 - Play on any team that lost its last game by 28 or more points (92-59-4, 60.9% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. This angle lost its only play in Week 11. Qualifier: Indianapolis -2.5 to -3.
Angle #5 - Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (168-107-5, 61.1% ATS): The logic behind this angle is the same as the previous angle with two exceptions, as it does not matter if the team playing its second straight road game won or lost its previous game, and also it is restricted to conference game only as now facing a familiar foe lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack that foe and what to expect on defense. This angle went 2-1 in Week 11. Qualifiers: Baltimore -1 or ML and Green Bay +3 to +3.5.
Angle #6 - Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (84-46-4, 64.6% ATS): NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and the added time off oftentimes has resulted in any injured players the teams may have also having extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. This angle went a perfect 2-0 in Week 11. Qualifiers: New York Giants -2.5 to -3 (contradiction to GB), Seattle -2.5 to -3 and Tennessee -2.5 to -3.
Double angle, Carolina at -2.5 to -3 or ML. (2 unit play) (Will play ML if not that juicy as I think they will win this game).
Oakland chase would now be GM3 of 3, but I am playing small as the play fell into another system that would extend it to 2 more games, which is unacceptable. If you have chased Oak for 2 games, bet to get half of your money back, break even or small profit and take a GM3 loss or don't play, your choice. You can always add a small percentage of any NFL chase loss to several of the NBA chases until you get the money back. There is a decent chance they won't lose but like I said, I will attempt to break even on the GM3. Oakland is usually not a good bet on the road.
Other plays, I also like Miami +3.5 to +4, St Louis +2 (plus 3 if you can buy to that).
No parlays unless you want to use Tenn and/or Oak, strong McTrendz plays with Carolina (double angle). As it stands now at around 2am central it would be Oak +8.5, Car -3 and Tenn -3.
Sometime ago Go Nads had some trend info about divisional nfl games. Some that apply today are.
AFC South O/U 1-3 Tenn - Jax
AFC South home team 1-3 Jax home team
NFC South O/U 3-1 Atlanta Tampa Bay
NFC North O/U 0-3 Under Chic Minny
NFC West O/U 0-5 Under St. Louis Ariz
These trends are from about a month ago and not sure how many divisional games have been played with these . Maybe if Go Nads has time he could update us.
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