It's Texas or nothing. Tampa Bay has hit .200 or worse in 7 of their past 8 games and have Shields on the mound (who has had an ugly statistical season). It is playoff baseball though so you never know and Tampa Bay does hit better versus left handed pitchers.
I have a feeling that Tampa Bay will have an unbelieveable defensive game and somehow pull off a 4-3 or 5-4 win, but I wouldn't bet on it. With the pitcher on the mound and how the batters have been performing the past couple weeks you have to go Texas or nothing. The best bet: NOTHING!
Goodluck.
The philosophy that I have broken it down too is that I now (today) look at one full week of sports betting the way that I used to look at just one day of sports betting when I first started.
Spreading 7 picks over a week (rather than a day or two) makes life alot easier and less-stressful, which allows you to look at all the games with a calmer mind, which then allows you to make better decisions. You need goals. You need to feel like your achieving something even if you have a losing day. The problem with most of us is, we can win 10 bets in a row and our confidence is soaring. We then lose 2 in a row and our confidence is gone and an animalistic nature takes over and we get greedy and stupid. We make bets we wouldn't have otherwise made, we chase for no reason because we have the constant need to succeed. If we feel like we are losing, or are losing, all common sense goes out the window and it is especially difficult online where you don't even see the money that you risk on a wager. The other big problem is people betting too much of their bankroll on any wager.
Keeping things simple, risking less than 3% of your bankroll on all wagers and never making more than 10 wagers in a week (no matter if you finish the week 10-0 or 0-10) is in my opinion the best way to steadily grow you bankroll. Of course you need to have the experience, because probably 50% of handicapping is based off your memory of situations but like you said with experience, disicpline, patience and more importantly an UNDERSTANDING of human nature and the emotional feelings we all go through when we lose or win a bet; gambling can be fun and profitable.
It is important that we not allow our human nature to determine our next wager and thats why I say that you should never make bets drunk or angry, as you aren't thinking properly. I like to handicap the shit out of a few days and then make my three wagers for those three days and then move on to looking at the next games as I don't want the outcomes of those games affecting the way I look at the next few days (as you can see in my play of the day thread, i've already placed my bets on wagers going through to Monday). This also helps relieve the constant urge to place a bet because I see all the pending bets and it excites me. Sad, but true.
Sorry I kind of just blabbled on but I hope this information helps someone. Never be discouraged and more importantly if you don't have the money to lose, don't bet at all. Life is a long journey and if you focuss your energy somewhere else, besides gambling, it will always be here for you to come back too. Like I said, the most imporant thing is to have a calm mind when handicapping games and placing your wagers and when the outcome of the game could effect your livelihood, you don't bet smart ... sportsbooks know all of this and so they do what they can to exploit us of our money. The end, haha.
haha, good bonfire. If you ever find yourself infront of your computer pissed off because of what just happened in a game, or the ultimate result of a game and you're ready to make tommorows wagers or chase a wager for later that night .. think objectively and stop yourself. It never hurts to take a day off either. Just remember that we as gamblers all have addictive personalities, or you wouldn't be on a gambling message board 
.
What it iz Hood? You seem to have a great concept behind your strategy. Gambling is all about the long haul...not what you won or lost yesterday. Although it is somewhat difficult to limit to one play a day during football season, I will try to implement this strategy for the upcoming hoop season. Keep up yor good work!
Solid NGND. I look at NFL Sunday as just another day. I am entered in a $500 Entry Fee - 10 Team - Fantasy Football League and that is how i've been able to manage my obsession of the NFL. I figure over the course of 10 years in these fantasy leagues I should come out even or on top and it won't effect my handicapping profits; it also allows me to watch every game semi-objectively so that I can make a good decision or two for the next weekends. I especially watch teams who are about to play in a Sunday night or Monday night game the next week. I rememeber though going through a big phase in life where I couldn't even enjoy a sports game if I didn't have money on it. Over the years I have found that just watching sport for what it is, entertainment, can be very entertaining and I love learning about the players, coaches, and the lives they've lived on and off the field; as well as the history of sport.
I need to get that same mentality. I think my deep embedded love for football makes me high during the season as I played on Saturdays . I think it is my cockiness that feeds my urge to play more games than I should. It is like an extension of the game to me. I win more than I lose by far but, I could maximize my yearly yield from merely laying of off a few games. Every bettor knows that one lean is superior to another. If I just played my superior leans I would see on average of 600 extra each week during football season. Thanks for your great incite Hood Rich!!
Should say "on"...
Established in 1995,
haha
to all, LETS GP PHILLIES!
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