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Money Ball 6.14

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Legend
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Posted: #51
Nice day!
 
Captain
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Posted: #52
Seems the tides have turned recently. Earlier in the season we suffered alot of bad beats in the 1st 5 ( plays losing bottom 5 when they are leading 3,4-0 etc)
Like to see the laws of average balancing it out for us
Great picks as always key
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by RLeith35:

Key, looks to me like u try to play Linemaker to much, and are most of the time picking lousy teams too much. T.B. is 17-5 at home vs K.C.and Mendozza only lasted 4 innings in that 9-8 home win. I know you don't like trends, but K.C. is 1-16 on the road after scoring 10 or more runs. What do u think about the Cubs + tonight?


That's the problem with trends period...but especially ones that date beyond the current season. New personnel makes these kind of stats useless.
 
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Posted: #54

I would agree it has to be run line +1.5. No way dogs win that high of a percent SU. If they did I would be a billionaire instead of just a millionaire.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
Legend
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Posted: #55
Right---what I thought---but why not say RL?  Also---  no way RL that high either?  Confusing me
 
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Posted: #56

Just because some of you guys are into the math and like to know what it means, if 590-393 is correct it is 60% and means you can not lay over -150 and expect to turn a profit. Like all forms of exotic betting the baseball run line was not invented for YOUR benefit. Seldom is a +1.5 dog at or below -150

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #57

Btw, if you find a +1.5 under -150 that dog is probably a hopeless case. The favorite in that circumstance is usually -1.5, and - juice because they are a very high probability side.

 

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
Legend
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Posted: #58
So not RL then?
 
Legend
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Posted: #59
If you get time please go to that under the MLB stats and tell me what you think it is.  I know a lotta dogs are winning but that seems unreasonable to me.  Thank you!
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:

So not RL then?
Oh, YES, those numbers have to be run line. Overall dogs win SU about 43 to 45%.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #61
Nice pair of last-at-bat wins tonight.
 
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Posted: #62
thx weebs
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
Legend
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Posted: #63

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Oh, YES, those numbers have to be run line. Overall dogs win SU about 43 to 45%.

Gotcha!

 
Captain
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Posted: #64
Same to you Key
Nice Job
 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #65
What up KEY ....


Took KC heavy tonight      


You were  2-1 tonight  pounding the underdogs  ......


Very Impressive    Keep it up Player !!!!!!
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