Money Ball 5.22

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101568922

If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI 

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

5.21.2013, 2-0-1, +10.14 Units, +101.4% ROI

YTD – 102-107-17, +19.09 Units, +1.85% ROI

5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted

Giants F5 (-150) FG (-142) (Gonzalez / Bumgarner)

That is a lot higher odds play than I normally run with but in this case I can honestly say I think it is justified. We not only have the higher rated pitcher (70.9 / 67.2) going with home field advantage but the Giants have the higher rated offense (35.7 / 25.9) and higher earned run production per 9 innings (4.8 / 2.8) versus lefty but have done it versus a slightly higher strength of schedule (68.9 / 68.2). It is uncommon for all four of those factors to come together with last years Cy Young winner as the opponent. Sure, you can make a case that Gio has looked better his last 3 than Madison, but the opponents were Pirates, Cubs, Padres, and none of them have the lefty hitting prowess the Giants do. By contrast Bumgarner faced the Phillies, Braves, and Rockies, all 3 better versus lefty than righty. After 10 days on the Left Coast the Nats should be ready to mount the plane for a day off at home before hosting the Phillies Friday night. The bags are packed and on the bus. Will they be fully “into” this game? I have my doubts.   

BOL