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Money Ball 5.02.2013

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by DanTos8715:

 

"His team is 0-5 when he takes the ball and have failed to impress anyone with anything but their payroll."

Isn't this a "trend"?

You could look at it that way I guess, but more importantly it is a streak and current season information. It is not based in ancient history like so many trends are. In fact, I think trends should be treated like streaks, when it's over, it's over, it exists no more. When they publish trends they like things like "Team A is 17-3 last 20 versus team B", but they never point it out if team A is 3-3 last 6, effectively ending the trend.

JMHO

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #27
 Always enjoy reading your good reasoning
 
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Posted: #28

Unbelievable how eeeeaaaasssssyyyyyy Baltimore seems to me tonight. 

So why do I have this bad feeling?

I mean, where does the pitching come from for the Angels?  They can only pray Joe can get through 6.  That bullpen needs like 3 days off.
1. Erick Aybar (S) SS  just got off DL ? mark
2. Mike Trout (R) CF  league seems to be catching up to him, he's not seeing it right now
3. Albert Pujols (R) 1B  struggling
4. Mark Trumbo (R) DH seeing the ball
5. Josh Hamilton (L) RF doesn't give a garbage flailing swing
7. Hank Conger (S) C decent possible threat
8. Brendan Harris (R) 3B hot for Brendan Harris
9. J.B. Shuck (L) LF rather JB up to bat than Albert or Josh right now!
 
That's how I feel the Angels lineup is going into tonight's game.  Orioles lineup not out yet.
 
I didn't get a chance to watch the O's and M's series.  But I seen that the O's lost the series.  Can anyone reading give a little insight into why the O's had a disappointing series in Seattle and what they expect tonight?????

 
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Posted: #29
Revo23 - The Mariners are literally never as bad as people think. That park they play in is no more conducive to scoring as the old dome was. Hence, folks read their overall stats and think they can't hit or score, but what happens is their visitors don't light up the scoreboard either. The Big A is a little more forgiving than that and I expect the O's to rebound tonight. I also see the O's with 5 left handed or switch hitters versus the righty Blanton, and all West Coast parks favor left handed pitching and hitting. BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by MojoGypson:

Key is right on about trends- they mean nothing to the actual game being wagered on.
Most profitable bettors I know ignore trends.


The truth lies in the middle.  To say "nothing" I think is absurd.  You woulnd't be saying that if you were riding the A's over "trend".

To soley base everything on trends is absurd, and so is ignoring them completely.

 

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by DanTos8715:

The truth lies in the middle.  To say "nothing" I think is absurd.  You woulnd't be saying that if you were riding the A's over "trend".

To soley base everything on trends is absurd, and so is ignoring them completely.

 

I feel there is an element of truth there to. If a trend is recent, like the A's overs, and you can determine a solid reason behind it, that is relevant. My real objection to trends is that without getting to the meat of it, it is of very little value, and the further it goes back the less relevant it is. Like my first example if a team is 17-3 versus another, all well and good, but if they are 3-3 this season the other 17 wins are meaningless. Old trends are ancient history.

BOL2All, no matter what you believe

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #32
 
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Posted: #33
Boston   
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by DanTos8715:

 

"His team is 0-5 when he takes the ball and have failed to impress anyone with anything but their payroll."

Isn't this a "trend"?

Trends involve a bigger sample size than 5. Streaks and runs involve smaller numbers. Trends are things that tend to happen more often than not, year after year, for whatever reason.

 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by DanTos8715:

The truth lies in the middle.  To say "nothing" I think is absurd.  You woulnd't be saying that if you were riding the A's over "trend".

To soley base everything on trends is absurd, and so is ignoring them completely.

 



fair point.
But as key said, "Old trends are ancient history.".

BTW- nice hits last night!!

Good luck all.
 
 
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Houston has some value tonight. What do you think?
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