Money Ball 4.27.2013

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101568922

If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI 

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

4.26.2013, 1-4-2, -14.75 Units, -49.2% ROI

YTD – 58-71-12, -44.64 Units, -7.01% ROI

5 & 9 Innings – 4/22/13 ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted

Blue Jays-Yankees FG Under 7.5 (-105) (Kellogg / Happ / Sabathia)

I would have hit that under last night except for a ridiculous 5 home runs. The total still only got to 9. Anyway, the chuckers have it all over the offenses tonight and Jeff Kellogg at 64% strikes and 3.07:1 K/BB ratio should be OK too. Cool, cloudy, almost no wind at all. Pitchers duel.

Cubs F5, RL (-.5 +125) FG, RL (-1.5 +145) (Wood / Sanabia)

Travis Wood can improve his stats tremendously tonight versus the totally inept Marlins. Meanwhile Sanabia can continue working his way right out of a job. There are not many pitchers that can consistently fall below my projected skill levels for their ratings but Sanabia is close to joining that “Hall Of Shame”.

Diamondbacks F5, RL (-.5, -115) FG, RL (-11.5, +130) (Francis / Miley)

OK, so it is a cold day in Hades and they are serving iced tea to the inmates. At least that is what it seems like when I break two of my own cardinal rules. Never lay juice and runs both in baseball (first 5), and never, never, never play home teams on the 9 inning run line. Furthermore, the wife and I will collect our free bobbleheads and probably be able to leave after the 7^th inning because the game should be over long before then. We will probably only stay that long because the tickets were 53 bucks apiece and I want to get my money’s worth, sort of. The handicap is really simple. Wade Miley takes one more step toward the All-Star Game and Jeff Francis takes one more step toward the end of his career. Team that up with a significant offensive advantage and you have a 66% probability of a multi run win. No way I will break another cardinal rule and use the “L” word, but this is about as good as it gets. I may even wear my Covers cap so you degenerates can maybe get a glimpse of me on your TV.   

BOL

Well, the 11.5 is either pie-in-the-sky optimistic or a typo, but, who knows? It is not due to anything I have been ingesting though. Field level box slightly to the right on your TV if you are going to look for that Covers cap. Shield the eyes of your children if you do.

I almost played the Reds today, but if they can't hit Dan Haren they are in a VERY serious slump.

Porcello goes 6.1 and records a win. Atlanta REALLY sucks.