The Red Sox are now 0-4 in their last four games versus the Rays, all of which came at Tropicana Field. They’re also 1-4 in their last five games versus a team with a winning record, are 1-4 in their last five games versus a left-handed starter and 1-4 in their last five divisional games as well. On the other side, the Rays are 12-3 in their last 15 games versus a team with a winning record, are 38-13 in their last 51 games coming off a win and are 64-23 in their last 87 games as a home favorite. T.B. -140 /A.Rome
The Red Sox are now 0-4 in their last four games versus the Rays, all of which came at Tropicana Field. They’re also 1-4 in their last five games versus a team with a winning record, are 1-4 in their last five games versus a left-handed starter and 1-4 in their last five divisional games as well. On the other side, the Rays are 12-3 in their last 15 games versus a team with a winning record, are 38-13 in their last 51 games coming off a win and are 64-23 in their last 87 games as a home favorite. T.B. -140 /A.Rome
The under is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams in St. Louis and is 15-4-1 in the last 20 meetings overall. The under is also 4-1-1 in the Twins’ last six road games versus a right-handed starter and is 5-2 in their last seven games versus a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. On the other side, the under is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last five games as a favorite, is 5-1 in their last six games following a loss and has cashed in five of their last seven home games overall. Min/St.L UN 8 / A.Rome
The under is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams in St. Louis and is 15-4-1 in the last 20 meetings overall. The under is also 4-1-1 in the Twins’ last six road games versus a right-handed starter and is 5-2 in their last seven games versus a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. On the other side, the under is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last five games as a favorite, is 5-1 in their last six games following a loss and has cashed in five of their last seven home games overall. Min/St.L UN 8 / A.Rome
The Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 games versus the Giants and are 4-1 in their last five meetings at Oracle Park, with their lone loss over that span coming in yesterday’s back-and-forth affair. The Astros are also 4-1 in their last five games coming off a loss, are 16-6 in their last 22 games when they’re playing the third game of a series and have won five of their last seven games versus a right-handed starter. They’re also 37-17 in their last 54 games overall and 35-16 in their last 51 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous contest.
The Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 games versus the Giants and are 4-1 in their last five meetings at Oracle Park, with their lone loss over that span coming in yesterday’s back-and-forth affair. The Astros are also 4-1 in their last five games coming off a loss, are 16-6 in their last 22 games when they’re playing the third game of a series and have won five of their last seven games versus a right-handed starter. They’re also 37-17 in their last 54 games overall and 35-16 in their last 51 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous contest.
The Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road underdog, are 9-3 in their last 12 games played on Sunday and are 6-2 in their last eight games versus teams from the National League East. They’ve also won 18 of their last 24 road games versus a right-handed starter and are 22-8 in their last 30 road games overall. Meanwhile, the Braves are just 8-20 in their last 28 games following a win and are 1-4 in their last five games after scoring five runs or more in their previous contest. Mill +132 / A.Rome
The Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road underdog, are 9-3 in their last 12 games played on Sunday and are 6-2 in their last eight games versus teams from the National League East. They’ve also won 18 of their last 24 road games versus a right-handed starter and are 22-8 in their last 30 road games overall. Meanwhile, the Braves are just 8-20 in their last 28 games following a win and are 1-4 in their last five games after scoring five runs or more in their previous contest. Mill +132 / A.Rome
It's been a tough weekend in the Tampa Bay area for the Red Sox, who look to avoid the sweep on Sunday night against the defending American League champions.
Boston squandered an early 3-0 lead in Saturday's 9-5 setback, but send out Nick Pivetta, who has shut down this Tampa Bay lineup in two starts this season.
The Sox have not been swept on the road this season and will likely keep that trend going on Sunday night. Bos 5-3 / M.Crosson
It's been a tough weekend in the Tampa Bay area for the Red Sox, who look to avoid the sweep on Sunday night against the defending American League champions.
Boston squandered an early 3-0 lead in Saturday's 9-5 setback, but send out Nick Pivetta, who has shut down this Tampa Bay lineup in two starts this season.
The Sox have not been swept on the road this season and will likely keep that trend going on Sunday night. Bos 5-3 / M.Crosson
Play On Home teams (PITTSBURGH) below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.00) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL)
Play On Home teams (PITTSBURGH) below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.00) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL)
Play Against Road teams (COLORADO) NL team with a low slugging percentage (<=.400) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
Play Against Road teams (COLORADO) NL team with a low slugging percentage (<=.400) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
Play On Home teams (TAMPA BAY) with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games
Play On Home teams (TAMPA BAY) with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games
Play Against Home teams (MIAMI) poor NL hitting team (AVG <=.250) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games
Play Against Home teams (MIAMI) poor NL hitting team (AVG <=.250) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games
These are two of MLB’s top five offenses this season and the wind will be blowing directly out of Oracle Park at 10+ miles per hour.
Yet, I heavily believe in this pitching matchup. Despite their season-long performances, I think Garcia and Webb are still undervalued in the market and the total of 8.5 runs seems a bit high.
Additionally, there’s an under leaning umpire calling the game in Fieldin Culbreath, who is 245-227 to the under (51.9%, +12.85 units) lifetime.
With just 33% of the bets and 65% of the money on the under, it’s clear under 8.5 runs is the best bet. While you can still snag it at even money on DraftKings, I’d happily play it at -110 or better.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100) — Play to -110 /T.McGrath / S.F/Hou
These are two of MLB’s top five offenses this season and the wind will be blowing directly out of Oracle Park at 10+ miles per hour.
Yet, I heavily believe in this pitching matchup. Despite their season-long performances, I think Garcia and Webb are still undervalued in the market and the total of 8.5 runs seems a bit high.
Additionally, there’s an under leaning umpire calling the game in Fieldin Culbreath, who is 245-227 to the under (51.9%, +12.85 units) lifetime.
With just 33% of the bets and 65% of the money on the under, it’s clear under 8.5 runs is the best bet. While you can still snag it at even money on DraftKings, I’d happily play it at -110 or better.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100) — Play to -110 /T.McGrath / S.F/Hou
The MLB Comp Play for Sunday is on Detroit At 1:10 eastern. The Tigers apply to a nice bounce back system here today for home teams with a total of 10 or higher off a home loss scoring 2 or less runs. They should do better here against Watkins than they did with Means on Saturday. The Tigers are 10-2 of late at home and have taken 8 of 12 here vs Baltimore. The Orioles have dropped 21 of 27 non division road games and 14 of 18 on the road vs a starter with an Era higher than 4.. Look for Detroit to get this one today. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Tigers. By Goldencontender
The MLB Comp Play for Sunday is on Detroit At 1:10 eastern. The Tigers apply to a nice bounce back system here today for home teams with a total of 10 or higher off a home loss scoring 2 or less runs. They should do better here against Watkins than they did with Means on Saturday. The Tigers are 10-2 of late at home and have taken 8 of 12 here vs Baltimore. The Orioles have dropped 21 of 27 non division road games and 14 of 18 on the road vs a starter with an Era higher than 4.. Look for Detroit to get this one today. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Tigers. By Goldencontender
Chi-Wash- Not enough info on rookie umpire Moore. Phil-Pitt- Under is 4-1 in last five Reynolds games. Cin-NY- Last six Hoye games went over. Mil-Atl- Under is 5-1 in last six Ortiz games. LA-Az- Over is 13-1 in last 14 Gibson games. Colo-SD- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Navas games.
KC-Tor- Under is 7-3 in last ten Little games. A’s-LAA- Over is 7-5-1 in Beck games. Balt-Det- Over is 7-3 in last ten Hudson games. Bos-TB- Under is 9-1 in last ten Hoberg games. Sea-Tex- Over is 9-6 in Merzel games. Clev-Chi- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Holbrook games.
Hst-SF- Over is 5-1 in last six Culbreth games. NY-Mia- Over is 4-1 in last five Riggs games. Minn-StL- Under is 6-2 in last eight Mahrley games.
Chi-Wash- Not enough info on rookie umpire Moore. Phil-Pitt- Under is 4-1 in last five Reynolds games. Cin-NY- Last six Hoye games went over. Mil-Atl- Under is 5-1 in last six Ortiz games. LA-Az- Over is 13-1 in last 14 Gibson games. Colo-SD- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Navas games.
KC-Tor- Under is 7-3 in last ten Little games. A’s-LAA- Over is 7-5-1 in Beck games. Balt-Det- Over is 7-3 in last ten Hudson games. Bos-TB- Under is 9-1 in last ten Hoberg games. Sea-Tex- Over is 9-6 in Merzel games. Clev-Chi- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Holbrook games.
Hst-SF- Over is 5-1 in last six Culbreth games. NY-Mia- Over is 4-1 in last five Riggs games. Minn-StL- Under is 6-2 in last eight Mahrley games.
Something I’m often on the lookout for is good, young pitchers facing a lineup for the first time. That’s what we have here with Shane McClanahan against the Red Sox.
McClanahan is one of the brighter young pitchers in the league. In 15 starts, he has a 3.93 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 71 innings. He limits walks (3.2 per 9) and home runs (just nine allowed) and has a devastating repertoire that has helped Tampa get by after the injury to Tyler Glasnow.
McClanahan will likely become very familiar with Boston’s lineup as time goes by, but this is his first crack at the Red Sox. Or rather, this is their first look at McClanahan, and they could struggle against him at least the first time or two through the order.
This bet is a risk mostly because of the presence of Nick Pivetta. The 28-year-old got off to a decent start to the season, but has been hammered lately. He’s allowed 16 home runs this season and 11 have come in his last nine starts. Still, he held the Rays scoreless through 6 2/3 innings in late June, and I think he does just enough for us to get by tonight.
But mostly, this bet is because of Boston’s unfamiliarity with McClanahan. I like the first five innings under 5 at -115 and would bet it to -120. There’s some under 4.5 lines out there, too, and I would consider that at -105, but under 5 is the safer bet in my eyes. Bos/T.B. F5 UN 5 / C.Whitechurch
Something I’m often on the lookout for is good, young pitchers facing a lineup for the first time. That’s what we have here with Shane McClanahan against the Red Sox.
McClanahan is one of the brighter young pitchers in the league. In 15 starts, he has a 3.93 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 71 innings. He limits walks (3.2 per 9) and home runs (just nine allowed) and has a devastating repertoire that has helped Tampa get by after the injury to Tyler Glasnow.
McClanahan will likely become very familiar with Boston’s lineup as time goes by, but this is his first crack at the Red Sox. Or rather, this is their first look at McClanahan, and they could struggle against him at least the first time or two through the order.
This bet is a risk mostly because of the presence of Nick Pivetta. The 28-year-old got off to a decent start to the season, but has been hammered lately. He’s allowed 16 home runs this season and 11 have come in his last nine starts. Still, he held the Rays scoreless through 6 2/3 innings in late June, and I think he does just enough for us to get by tonight.
But mostly, this bet is because of Boston’s unfamiliarity with McClanahan. I like the first five innings under 5 at -115 and would bet it to -120. There’s some under 4.5 lines out there, too, and I would consider that at -105, but under 5 is the safer bet in my eyes. Bos/T.B. F5 UN 5 / C.Whitechurch
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