Posted:
#1
Nice win again last night on the Tigers/Indians over.
Go at it again this morning when the Cubs close out a series w/ the Bucs in Pittsburgh in a Business Person's Special at 12:35 PM EST.
May come as a shock to some, but I am going to Play on the Cubs +125 and use LP Edwin Jackson for Chicago.
I know immediately you are going to ask why back a 1-6 and pitcher? I will try ro answer that as well.
Although Jackson is 1-6 and has a high whip, he has been great against PIT at PNC Park in his whole career .....and most important is that his dominance is consistant.
Consider this... at PNC Park in PIT...Jackson in 24.4 innings pitched has only allowed 9 runs in his career (including only 4 walks and 18 strikeouts!) These are pretty amazing numbers. Overall in games home and away, Jackson has pitched 42.1 innings vs PIT and allowed only 15 runs and 13 walks (including only to BB's in has last 18 2/3 innings. Basically, (joking of course) if he pitched his whole career vs the Pirates he would be in the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. The Cubs are also looking to avoid a sweep, so we know the effort will be there.
The Pirates are slowly becoming a public team, but lets face it...the beat a struggling Brewers, struggling Astros and now the first two vs. Houston (so their current streak hasn't made them the Yankees.) But credit to them, the are not blowing these games like they did the past 1o years, so they do have some heart.
On the flip side, the Pirates are sending upstart J. Gomez to the mound who has 4 wins in a row. His last start was not terrific, he gave up 4 runs in 4 innings vs Houston (including a long one) but was bailed out by his offense (who gave him a grand slam) in a 5-4 win.
Not much to go on Gomez vs. CHI, he faced only 7 at bats, giving up 2 hits and 2 walks (no strikeouts.)
In this situation, where we have a very strong consistant resume of work across a career like Jackson has vs PIT. I will always take the price of +120 or greater. I do like the fact that the Cubs also have the sweep buster incentive and the fact that we have a possible (but un-known) chance the Cubbies could hit Jackson.
The public is pounding the Bucs (fading the 1-6 Jackson.) However, now that you know Jackson's stats against the Bucs over the years, before you follow the public maybe you will think twice about the "sure thing" the Pirates are NOT today.
Playing on the Cubs today +125. (Wait until 12:15 or so to play this, I think the last minute action of the public (who will undoubtedly play the Pirates) will drive the price higher.
GL!
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