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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by captian_crunch:

if you are not betting baseball for value you are crazy! good luck laying -150 all day


exactly!

the idea of going for the "value" line also incorporates picking winners.   It just takes it one step farther--most all successful 'cappers make their own line.   

My line today shows Cinci and Mets both -120 (favorites to win), and since they are slight dogs, there is value today and I'm betting them.   I handicapped SF as -125 favorite to win, and that is not far from the betting line, so no value and I ain't taking it.   

Tho sometimes a -200  I handicap out to -250 and will lay it, because of the value.  Tho it isn't as common finding value on -200 lines...

 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by Sparky10191:

If the "public" was never on the right side...they would have learned to switch to the other side and never lose. Nobody can hit 100%. It's about picking your spots based on the line situation. But you don't want anyone to explain that to you so why explain it?

Why did Wainwright and the Cardinals easily handle the Reds?

I'm asking these conspiracy theorists to provide some data and none can do it.

And you bring up 165 or whatever his name is thread where he throws out a complete myth about some situation hitting over 60%. All I said was prove it. I'm the bad guy because I seek reasoning?

Some people aren't cut out for this gambling business, and well, Sparky, your oblivious nature is a prime factor.
 
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Posted: #28

The oddsmakers don't play the games boys.

It's simple you have a 50/50 chance of winning your wager, no matter what if you are with the consensus or against them. The good teams win 100 games a year, that means they lose 62. It's all about gaining an understanding for feel, analyzing stats, playing streaks and after all of that, anything can still happen. I love all the :MOOSE: talk lately, highly entertaining.

All of this talk is horse hooey.

Some are more lucky than others but bad beats are a part of it as well and we have all been on the side of both.

 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by hammer22:

by the RJSIZZLE I have never seen u post one damn play on this site....everybodys got opinions and comments....lets see some winners big dog.

since u know so much about this be my guest to prove yourself


I openly posted in many threads yesterday that I was on the Twinks and Jays and Cubbies.

But, your wish is my command....you will see a thread from me up top!


 
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Posted: #30
yeah theres also value when a shithole team like the Pirates +225 playing the yankees....but what happens the majority of the time

the Pirates get killed....im sick of hearing about value,traps,public,this that....do your homework and pick a winner

"damn the pirates had great value today, i wish they wouldnt of given up 7 runs in the 3rd inning"......bye bye MONEY
 
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Posted: #31

WOW....JUST WOW.....SOMEDAY SOME OF U PPL WILL LEARN...THIS IS A MUST READ CAUSE ITS A BUNCE OF BS....I MADE A 2ND LIVING BETTING AGAINST THE PUBLIC AND PICKING TEAMS THAT ARENT SUPOSE TO WIN.....MY FRIEND HAMMER THINKS THAT U CAN NOT READ LINE MOVEMENT ALSO...VEGAS ALWAYS WINS CAUSE OF PPL THAT BET ON TEAMS THAT THEY THINK R GOING TO WIN

 

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL......REMEMBER WHEN BALT SWEEP TEX A COUPLE WEEKS AGO BEFORE THE BUCK TAKE OVER....

 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by IDONTgamble:

I never said vegas KNEW papelbon would come in the 9th and ruin it..you people are putting words in your own mouth.  all I was pointing out was that lackey at -105 vs mills at -105 was fishy because any normal person like (depressed) would;ve jumped all over boston at this price THINKING it was a steal of the century, when in reality, it was a SUCKERS bet.  as he found out in the end when he lost his milk money.  I think boston is a great team, and would take them ALL DAY against a bjays team, BUT when the line is fishy, I go the other way

Idontgamble, by any chance...would you be willing to sell your picks to me? I think I can make a lot of money fading you.
 
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Posted: #33

FYI

THIS WAS POSTED IN 165 THREAD...A GUY THAT UNDERSTANDS VAULE....RECORD IS 337 - 402 BUT IS PLUS 100 UNITS.....

 
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Posted: #34
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by BUBBA_ARMY48:

WOW....JUST WOW.....SOMEDAY SOME OF U PPL WILL LEARN...THIS IS A MUST READ CAUSE ITS A BUNCE OF BS....I MADE A 2ND LIVING BETTING AGAINST THE PUBLIC AND PICKING TEAMS THAT ARENT SUPOSE TO WIN.....MY FRIEND HAMMER THINKS THAT U CAN NOT READ LINE MOVEMENT ALSO...VEGAS ALWAYS WINS CAUSE OF PPL THAT BET ON TEAMS THAT THEY THINK R GOING TO WIN

 

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL......REMEMBER WHEN BALT SWEEP TEX A COUPLE WEEKS AGO BEFORE THE BUCK TAKE OVER....

Hey Bubba I remember that series very well. I told Kansas24 I think his name is that Baltimore is alot better team than anyone in the world was giving them credit for being and to not be surprised when Baltimore kicked the shit out of the Rangers.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by hammer22:


.im sick of hearing about value,traps,public,this that....do your homework and pick a winner


How about do your homework and pick a winner with value?


Quote Originally Posted by hammer22:

yeah theres also value when a shithole team like the Pirates +225 playing the yankees....but what happens the majority of the time

the Pirates get killed....


at +225 Pirates can lose a majority of these games and you'd still be plus units.   Depends on the value after you do your homework handicapping all the variables.  +225 isn't automatically value--the value is decided on the valid line you produce vs. the bookies line.

 
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Posted: #37
 
Captain
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:

ITS NOT COMPLETELY ABOUT WHERE THE PUBLIC HAS ITS MONEY.

For me, its about finding the lines that just look plain wrong and too good to be true.... the public %s are usually involved in this as well but I don't focus on fading the high %s in bases

BOTTOMLINE:

Believe it or not...the linemakers know more than EVERYONE here combined. Every little detail... baseball is unique because players clearly are not motivated the same amount for every game and the linemakers know how to take advantage.


SO TRUE..LAST NIGHT FOR ME WAS THE DODGERS MY BOOK HAD LA -130...THAT DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENCE AT ALL....VS A PHILLY TEAM THAT WAS 27-7 THERE LAST 34 AT HOME AND THE DODGERS AS A FAV...WELL IN THIS CASE IT BACKED FIRED BUT FOR THE MOST PART THAT GAME WINS 9/10 UP 7 WITH TWO TO PLAY
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Sparky10191:

If it looks "too good to be true"...it's usually "too good to be true".


 
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Posted: #40

You all give Vegas too much credit for trying to being to deceptive. Vegas sets a line that you THINK is wrong so you think it is a trap. NO that is what the line should be according to the Line Makers. Who are Vegas anyway? They are a group of hundreds of individual  sports books who do not all get together and say let’s set a trap. Wake Up they set a line they believe is right and the people think it is wrong and think Vegas is up to something.

 
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Posted: #41

There is only value when you win regardless of what the line is. So you can't be talking value before a contest is decided. After the contest is completed and you're on the winning side then and only then you can boast that you had value on your side.

Of course anyone would like to be a gambler that has great success in picking a high pct. of dog winners but that is really not realistic in the long run and so one has to have a mixture of picking dogs as well as favs.

The only thing that really matters is that where do you stand overall...are you losing or are you winning.

If you are losing overall you need to make adjustments but if you're really in a very deep hole the best thing for you would be do hang up your jock straps and retire from gambling however if you are winning you keep doing what you're doing but you must realize there are numerous other systems to employ that can keep you staying ahead in the long run as long as you gamble.

The sad truth though is that majority of gamblers worldwide are overall losers and only a tiny pct. are winners overall.

 

 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by SirJohnDrake:

There is only value when you win regardless of what the line is.

Wrong. Try again.

 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by BUBBA_ARMY48:

FYI

THIS WAS POSTED IN 165 THREAD...A GUY THAT UNDERSTANDS VAULE....RECORD IS 337 - 402 BUT IS PLUS 100 UNITS.....

so he says... who's keeping track
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by SirJohnDrake:

There is only value when you win regardless of what the line is. ...

The only thing that really matters is that where do you stand overall...are you losing or are you winning.

You can only win if you make bets that are good value. 

Betting baseball is like betting horse racing.  That is why I love it, and why it is a mystery to many. 

 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by Osirus13:

So vegas knew they would blow a 5-2 lead in 9th? No way. That should have been a sox win. They didnt get it done but not because vegas wanted people on the sox


Yeah, what would IDONTgamble say if Papelbon didn't suck and give up those runs.

It's dumb to only show up AFTER the game is played and talk about what strategy they "used" to win the bet.

Look at the matchup, pick the winner, if the win, you win money.

That's what it all boils down to.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by depressed:

Why did Wainwright and the Cardinals easily handle the Reds?

I'm asking these conspiracy theorists to provide some data and none can do it.

And you bring up 165 or whatever his name is thread where he throws out a complete myth about some situation hitting over 60%. All I said was prove it. I'm the bad guy because I seek reasoning?

Some people aren't cut out for this gambling business, and well, Sparky, your oblivious nature is a prime factor.


depressed, don't let others keep you from being urself.I like the posts you put up so just keep being you.
 
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Posted: #47

Quote Originally Posted by ttcasucci:

so he says... who's keeping track

 

THE MAN POST DAY IN AND DAY OUT....NOW PPL THAT KEEP TRACK OF RECORDS LIE??............FEEL LIKE IM IN HIGH SCHOOL....WE ALL NEED TO STOP WORRING ABOUT VAULE ANDALL THE OTHER BS......WE ALL R HERE TO MAKE MONEY...IF WE WOULD WORK TOGEATHER ON THIS COMMON GOAL WE WOULD ALL MAKE SOME COIN........DIFFRENT PPL HAVE DIFFRENT WAYS AND DIFFRENT REASONS WHY AND WHO THEY PLAY...THE MEANING OF THIS FORUM IS TO SHARE THAT INFO TO HELP BEAT THE BOOKS...TRUE OR FALSE??

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by BUBBA_ARMY48:

 

THE MAN POST DAY IN AND DAY OUT....NOW PPL THAT KEEP TRACK OF RECORDS LIE??............FEEL LIKE IM IN HIGH SCHOOL....WE ALL NEED TO STOP WORRING ABOUT VAULE ANDALL THE OTHER BS......WE ALL R HERE TO MAKE MONEY...IF WE WOULD WORK TOGEATHER ON THIS COMMON GOAL WE WOULD ALL MAKE SOME COIN........DIFFRENT PPL HAVE DIFFRENT WAYS AND DIFFRENT REASONS WHY AND WHO THEY PLAY...THE MEANING OF THIS FORUM IS TO SHARE THAT INFO TO HELP BEAT THE BOOKS...TRUE OR FALSE??



True. but dude, it's not gonna work. humans like fighting more than getting along.
 
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Posted: #49
THEY LIKE FIGHTING OVER MAKING MONEY?
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:

ITS NOT COMPLETELY ABOUT WHERE THE PUBLIC HAS ITS MONEY.

For me, its about finding the lines that just look plain wrong and too good to be true.... the public %s are usually involved in this as well but I don't focus on fading the high %s in bases

BOTTOMLINE:

Believe it or not...the linemakers know more than EVERYONE here combined. Every little detail... baseball is unique because players clearly are not motivated the same amount for every game and the linemakers know how to take advantage.


i care none about the public, but lines that make little sense and attacking them like you said will be profitable in any sport.
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