A cautionary tale for those that feel the Reds have value today at +210

The line on today's game isn't about the matchup of Jose Contreras (who's brutal) vs. Kip Wells.  It's about a team that's suddenly finding ways to lose vs. a team that's been finding ways to win for awhile now.  The Reds were playing with great confidence last week, and they played that way against the Rockies on Monday, too, carrying a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the 7th inning as huge +230 underdogs.  But then, bad things started to happen. 

An error, a walk, a sac fly, and finally, a clutch two-out single just over the glove of second baseman Brandon Phillips, and the game was tied.  The Reds had no answer in the top of the 8th, quickly going down in order, and then in the bottom of the 8th they entrusted the game to a September call-up (from Single A!) named Carlos Fisher.  Fisher's first act as a Cincinnati Red was to serve up a very hittable fastball that Ian Stewart sent rocketing into the right field seats.  The Reds were down, 4-3, but not out. 

In the top of the 9th inning, seemingly undeterred by everything that went wrong in the 7th and 8th, the Reds began their rally with back-to-back singles by Phillips and Scott Rolen.  The next batter, Jonny Gomes, had a 3-0 count on him and suddenly the Reds looked like they were about to have the bases loaded with nobody out.  But that didn't happen.  After looking at a strike, Gomes hit a bullet to left, but he hit it right to Seth Smith for the first out.  Disaster struck next during the at-bat of Darnell McDonald.  McDonald had worked the count full when Phillips decided to try and steal third.  Rolen, seeing Phillips take off, took off himself for second base.  Rockies catcher Chris Iannetta gunned the ball down to Chris Barmes but he threw it short.  Barmes, though, made a tough pick of the ball and a lightning quick tag.  Rolen was out.  The Reds rally was ruined.  McDonald swung and missed at the next pitch and the game was over, and so was Cincinnati's season-high seven-game winning streak.

Monday's blown lead and the stunning, snuffed-out rally in the 9th inning seemed to leave the Reds offense flat, because on Tuesday night they had nothing.  The pitching was solid once again, but the Reds could only manage one run off of Jason Marquis and they lost, 3-1.  Last night was more of the same.  Bronson Arroyo kept the Reds close but they couldn't touch Jason Hammel for the first seven innings.  But then, the Reds suddenly got it going, hitting back-to-back doubles to get on the board and knock Hammel out of the game.  Another double tied the game at 2-2 and they went into the 9th with the game up for grabs. 

Scott Rolen led off the 9th with a line drive homerun to left.  Incredibly, after seeming like they were not going to score at all, the Reds were now winning the game!  It was just up to Francisco Cordero to close it out.  Sadly, though, Cordero sucks, and like I said earlier, the Rockies have been finding ways to win lately.  After retiring the first batter on his first pitch, Cordero gave up a ringing double to left by Clint Barmes.  The he completely lost the strike zone and walked pinch-hitter Jason Giambi on four pitches.  Up next was Ryan Spilborghs, and he also worked a quick walk to load the bases.  Cordero was unraveling, and fast.  The Reds appeared doomed.  Cordero got it together just in time to strike out Carlos Gonzalez, but the red-hot Seth Smith was next.  By now, Cordero had abandoned his breaking pitches, none of which he could get over for strikes, so Smith saw nothing but fastballs.  He quickly had two strikes on him, and Cordero needed just one more.  But Smith wouldn't let him have it.  Seth Smith fouled off pitch after pitch until he inevitably starightened one out and hit the ball hard on the ground to the right of Brandon Phillips at second base.  Phillips dove and got his glove on the ball but was unable to stop it.  The ball rolled onto the outfield grass as Phillips chased it down.  The tying run had scored, but there was still a chance to throw pinch-runner Jason Marquis out at home.  But it wasn't meant to be, as Phillips picked up the ball, but in his haste to do everything at once, he fell on his butt and the Reds were tough luck losers for the third day in a row.

So now that you guys have a picture of a truly discouraged Cincinnati team, do you still feel like there's "great value" in today's worthless +210 line?  Do the Reds even feel like they can beat this team?  Now that their winning streak is ancient history, do they even care?  If this game is close in the late innings, which team has the enormous mental edge right now?  Maybe that's why the line is what it is.  Not because of anything that Jose Contreras is going to do, but because the chances appear great that if this game is hanging in the balance, it's the Rockies who will seize the day and it's the Reds who will bungle whatever needs bungling.