Record: 3-0
Net Units: +1.90u
Last Picks: Braves ML -150, Yankees ML -150, and Brewers ML -178 all cashed yesterday.
Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Seattle Mariners ML (-130), 1u to win +0.77u
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Pitching: Seattle gets the edge with Emerson Hancock over Chris Bassitt. Hancock has been stable with a 2.80 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, while Bassitt is coming off a back issue and has no real 2026 baseline.
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Relievers: Baltimore’s bullpen is the concern. They used 5 relievers yesterday, 8 over the last 2 days, and do not have Felix Bautista closing games. Seattle’s pen has also been used, but the season-long quality is better.
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Weather: Camden Yards looks neutral at 69.5°F with 10.1 mph wind and no rain. No major weather adjustment.
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Hitting: Both teams have lineup injuries, but the main angle is Seattle facing a potentially limited Bassitt and a weaker Baltimore bullpen behind him.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-176), 1u to win +0.57u
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Pitching: Phillies have the clearest starter edge with Cristopher Sánchez over Patrick Corbin. Sánchez owns a 1.46 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 0.267 xwOBA, while Corbin sits at 3.98 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 0.356 xwOBA.
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Relievers: Bullpen usage is fairly even, with both teams using 5 relievers yesterday. Toronto has two high-usage arms flagged, but Sánchez can limit bullpen exposure if he gives Philly length.
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Weather: Rogers Centre is a dome game, so weather is removed from the handicap. Stable conditions, no wind or rain impact.
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Hitting: Harper being out matters, but the Phillies still have the better overall setup against Corbin. Toronto may also be without Daulton Varsho, which would weaken their lineup.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Athletics
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-154), 1u to win +0.65u
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Pitching: Milwaukee gets a strong starter edge with Kyle Harrison over Jeffrey Springs. Harrison has a 1.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 0.280 xwOBA, while Springs has been much more hittable at 4.37 ERA.
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Relievers: Brewers have the bullpen edge by quality, with a 3.26 ERA vs Oakland’s 4.54. Athletics also moved their closer, leaving the late inning structure less settled.
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Weather: Cold outdoor conditions at 51.3°F should suppress scoring. That favors the better pitching staff.
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Hitting: Milwaukee has the stronger team profile with a 40-23 record and +105 run differential. Oakland is also missing key infield pieces, which lowers their offensive ceiling.
Plays: Mariners ML -130, Phillies ML -176, Brewers ML -154
All 1u
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