6/8

224-200       +1899

TB +106

TB 1st5 -.5 +135

TOR +158

TOR 1st5 U4 -102

WAS +1.5 -142

ATH +140

Good luck Raiders.  

@Raiders22

22! good luck

Why Tampa buddy?

@Raiders22

 Leaned Rays too.  GL today! 

@Ravensfan2k3

This is some of what I wrote for last week’s game and most of it still applies to tonight’s game.

It is all about if there is an ‘edge’ for me on the things I look at.

In other words:  Is my estimated probability higher than the implied probability of the current odds.

Yes, teams go through hot and cold strakes with pitching and hitting.  When they have a cold streak with both at the same time and play a team that has a hot streak at the same time it can be a recipe for a disaster.

You have to decide what constitutes a streak.  

So, I am not so sure either team was on a streak of any sort.

So, ‘form’, as such, was not really a problem.

But when you look at the total records of both it is clear who the better team is.

TB has record +9.40 units.  Boston has -16.80 units.

That is a differential of 26 units.

TB at home has the 2nd best record at 9.55 units.  Boston away record at -.15 units.

That is a differential of 10 units.

By most advanced stats I look at, Seymour has the edge in the pitching matchup. Early does have the advantage in traditional stats.

I think this coupled with Tampa’s spotty offense has the line off enough to provide and edge tonight.

I also think the number will only be worse the next two games — depending on tonight’s outcome of course.

Bullpen availability (which is a huge factor a lot of bettors over look) is not a problem.  Tampa has the fresher bullpen and this is expected to be a ‘planned’ bullpen game.

Just from the open of around -118 to +106 is a 4.6% edge or so.  This coupled with the fact that I had the line closer to -125 made it close to 6.1% edge.  This is enough for me to make it a solid play.

That would be between +9.3 and +12.2% EV.

Part of the reason the line opened as low and worked its way down is the fact that folks were looking at the game from yesterday as well and that was factored in.

I just think in a long season that you have to play the edges and the probabilities when they present themselves.

Obviously, you will be wrong and have to just move along.

But when I look at the game afterwards and do not see a clear reason that a team has started a cold streak I am okay with the play.

 It could be the wrong play today.  But I think it is the correct play over the long term and would be a winner.

Boston should have the better pitcher in Early and Tampa with Seymour having good ‘sleeper’ stats like, weaker overall contact, lower avg exit velocity, lower hard-hit rate, better expected wOBA .306 to .337.

I even see Boston as the better 1st5 team tonight because of the starters.  But considering the line and the units for each this year and the other stats — I even see value or edge with Tampa in the 1st5.

If Tampa can get to the Boston bullpen early I think they will be fine.  Boston’s bullpen just had a rough series with NYY.