WIth the exception of his last fight, I usually guage Rashad really really well. As a Rampage fan, I laughed at the line when I seen it knowing Shad wud just take him down and grind out a decision (1st 2 rds). His fight vs Phil Davis was one of my most confident plays I have ever had, especially due to how close the line was vs my unit sizing. Just knew Rashad was the much more polished striker and he would be able to keep it on his feet. Didn't realize he would out wrestle Davis at time as bad as he did. As I look back through I have called every single Evans fight in the UFC correct with the exception of 1. His last fight vs Lil Nog. I thought there was virtually no way he could lose the fight.
Even though Lil Nog has a high level of boxing, we have never really known him as a 1 punch KO artist like Rampage and Shogun from a while back. WIth Lil Nog coming off that 15 month lay off, I thought forsure this fight was at worst going to be a replay of the Bader or Davis fight to where Nog just sort of faded after the first. To be honest, if his last name wasn't Nogueira he probably wouldn't got the split decision over Brilz (I actually had him in a parlay and thought forsure I lost it). So I fully expected the more explosive, faster, stronger, athlete to kind of roll in the fight after the 2nd rd. To say the least I was surprised. I remember watching the fight being very very confused to what Shad was doing and wondering if he was hurt and just took the fight anyways.
On the exact opposite of the spectrum we have a guy in Hendo that still leaves me scratching my head on how he is still able to compete at such a high level w/as few of tools as he decides to use in the cage. I have bet against Dan his last three fights and I can say that the man has never just given me an easy moment. I thought Fedor was going to finish him, then he throws some uppercut while they are on the ground and the Russian dies, I thought Shogun would use his leg kicks and superior overall striking to keep Hendo at bay. Even after everything happened I thought I was going to get a draw at worse because of what I thought had to be a 10-8 5th rd. So much so when they said unam decision I thought I won because of them giving Shogun rd 3 due to the way he finished it. Instead I just sat there mad.... then we have his latest fight with Machida in which idk how it was a split decision I don't know how any judge could have given him a round.
All in all, I think this is a very scary fight to put a large number of units on. I would think that Rashad would be able to use his quickness and athleticism to get in and out, mixing things up well and scoring a takedown. Hendo is known to gas, so that combined with how good Shad looked in all 5 rds vs Davis it would really start to make me lean his way. The only thing that is scaring me is that in his Jones and Lil Nog fight I feel as if Rashad has came out thinking and not fighting. I am going to go back and watch the Lil Nog fight again as of now...
slight lean Shad w/expectations of making it a 1u play or including it in a parlay.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
2011: +33.87
Dec 12-Now: +31u
Last Show: +5u
Dan Henderson vs Rashad Evans
WIth the exception of his last fight, I usually guage Rashad really really well. As a Rampage fan, I laughed at the line when I seen it knowing Shad wud just take him down and grind out a decision (1st 2 rds). His fight vs Phil Davis was one of my most confident plays I have ever had, especially due to how close the line was vs my unit sizing. Just knew Rashad was the much more polished striker and he would be able to keep it on his feet. Didn't realize he would out wrestle Davis at time as bad as he did. As I look back through I have called every single Evans fight in the UFC correct with the exception of 1. His last fight vs Lil Nog. I thought there was virtually no way he could lose the fight.
Even though Lil Nog has a high level of boxing, we have never really known him as a 1 punch KO artist like Rampage and Shogun from a while back. WIth Lil Nog coming off that 15 month lay off, I thought forsure this fight was at worst going to be a replay of the Bader or Davis fight to where Nog just sort of faded after the first. To be honest, if his last name wasn't Nogueira he probably wouldn't got the split decision over Brilz (I actually had him in a parlay and thought forsure I lost it). So I fully expected the more explosive, faster, stronger, athlete to kind of roll in the fight after the 2nd rd. To say the least I was surprised. I remember watching the fight being very very confused to what Shad was doing and wondering if he was hurt and just took the fight anyways.
On the exact opposite of the spectrum we have a guy in Hendo that still leaves me scratching my head on how he is still able to compete at such a high level w/as few of tools as he decides to use in the cage. I have bet against Dan his last three fights and I can say that the man has never just given me an easy moment. I thought Fedor was going to finish him, then he throws some uppercut while they are on the ground and the Russian dies, I thought Shogun would use his leg kicks and superior overall striking to keep Hendo at bay. Even after everything happened I thought I was going to get a draw at worse because of what I thought had to be a 10-8 5th rd. So much so when they said unam decision I thought I won because of them giving Shogun rd 3 due to the way he finished it. Instead I just sat there mad.... then we have his latest fight with Machida in which idk how it was a split decision I don't know how any judge could have given him a round.
All in all, I think this is a very scary fight to put a large number of units on. I would think that Rashad would be able to use his quickness and athleticism to get in and out, mixing things up well and scoring a takedown. Hendo is known to gas, so that combined with how good Shad looked in all 5 rds vs Davis it would really start to make me lean his way. The only thing that is scaring me is that in his Jones and Lil Nog fight I feel as if Rashad has came out thinking and not fighting. I am going to go back and watch the Lil Nog fight again as of now...
slight lean Shad w/expectations of making it a 1u play or including it in a parlay.
There might be a little bias here, for I am a Roy Nelson fan, but I am struggling to see a way that Stipe wins this fight. His only chance would be to do what Mir did and kind of use his wrestling to grind him out a bit against the cage and what not. There's two major problems I see with him completing that gameplan. 1. Stipe has shown a huge lack of cardio, a gameplan of that nature for 3rds would be pretty tiring 2. Roy's bjj is way beyond that of Stipe's, the thought of Roy not getting the best of the scrambles is very hard to come by (Mir had a high level of bjj). Stipe does have nice hands, however, if Junior or Fabricio couldn't finish Roy with the shots they were landing, I am having a very hard time giving Stipe the credit to be able to do so. (When Arlovski did it back eliteXC, Roy took that fight on super short notice, won the first round and was tired in the second when AA finished him) I know Nelson is taking this fight on "short notice" but he's had at least a month to get ready and he just had a fight in april so that doesn't bother me at all.
So after finding it very difficult for Stipe to win the fight, I take a step back and ask myself how Roy can he has better cardio, so if it goes the distance I would have to give him an edge going into rds 2 and 3. He def has 1 punch KO power as he's finished 5 of his fights in the ufc in the first rd. If Roy touches you with that right you go down, period... the more tired you get the harder it is to keep your hands up and continue to move correctly, which leads more toward Roys favor. The man's chin is redic, so I would give him the advantage in a wild swing off as well. The only adv I think that Stipe has is wrestling, but after the 1st rd I think that the grappling adv could even go to Roy on the feet as his opponent gases. If that Mir fight would have never happened this would probably be a 5u play by itself in all seriousness. It has quite a few things that I look for when making something into a big play. That combined with the fact that this is a huge jump in comp for Stipe. I like Roy here quite a bit.
Forsure going to make a play on Roy whether it be mult parlays or a parlay and 1-2u wager.
Barry vs Jordan
Kind of a fan of Barry as well, so I am trying not to be bias, but I think I am leaning toward Barry for a .5u and/or some parlay action. Jordan hasn't really impressed me too much, I know he's supposed to be a heck of an athlete and explosive... but him struggling with a hurt Kongo will forever sit in my head. Jordan was able to finish Russow, but to be honest, Russow is basically a part time fighter. The only thing that has me a little worried is that Jordan is a greg jackson fighter and they tend to come up with gameplans to just lean on ppl. Hopefully the improvements I have seen in Barry's game continue and he is able to keep the distance and keep it standing long enough to do serious damage
.5u or small parlay
Leaning toward Jimmo depending on line just due to explosiveness
Leaning Woodley as I see him being able to keep it on the feet with reverse wrestling as well as secure tds late in rds to secure them (really confused how the girl fight or jimmo fight made it on main card over this)
Leaning Jabouin as well, don't know how this isn't on the fx card has the potential to be a gr8 fight. Dustin just isn't that good kinda shocked of his 4 oppoents the only one he was able to beat was Papazian.
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Roy Nelson vs Stipe Miocic
There might be a little bias here, for I am a Roy Nelson fan, but I am struggling to see a way that Stipe wins this fight. His only chance would be to do what Mir did and kind of use his wrestling to grind him out a bit against the cage and what not. There's two major problems I see with him completing that gameplan. 1. Stipe has shown a huge lack of cardio, a gameplan of that nature for 3rds would be pretty tiring 2. Roy's bjj is way beyond that of Stipe's, the thought of Roy not getting the best of the scrambles is very hard to come by (Mir had a high level of bjj). Stipe does have nice hands, however, if Junior or Fabricio couldn't finish Roy with the shots they were landing, I am having a very hard time giving Stipe the credit to be able to do so. (When Arlovski did it back eliteXC, Roy took that fight on super short notice, won the first round and was tired in the second when AA finished him) I know Nelson is taking this fight on "short notice" but he's had at least a month to get ready and he just had a fight in april so that doesn't bother me at all.
So after finding it very difficult for Stipe to win the fight, I take a step back and ask myself how Roy can he has better cardio, so if it goes the distance I would have to give him an edge going into rds 2 and 3. He def has 1 punch KO power as he's finished 5 of his fights in the ufc in the first rd. If Roy touches you with that right you go down, period... the more tired you get the harder it is to keep your hands up and continue to move correctly, which leads more toward Roys favor. The man's chin is redic, so I would give him the advantage in a wild swing off as well. The only adv I think that Stipe has is wrestling, but after the 1st rd I think that the grappling adv could even go to Roy on the feet as his opponent gases. If that Mir fight would have never happened this would probably be a 5u play by itself in all seriousness. It has quite a few things that I look for when making something into a big play. That combined with the fact that this is a huge jump in comp for Stipe. I like Roy here quite a bit.
Forsure going to make a play on Roy whether it be mult parlays or a parlay and 1-2u wager.
Barry vs Jordan
Kind of a fan of Barry as well, so I am trying not to be bias, but I think I am leaning toward Barry for a .5u and/or some parlay action. Jordan hasn't really impressed me too much, I know he's supposed to be a heck of an athlete and explosive... but him struggling with a hurt Kongo will forever sit in my head. Jordan was able to finish Russow, but to be honest, Russow is basically a part time fighter. The only thing that has me a little worried is that Jordan is a greg jackson fighter and they tend to come up with gameplans to just lean on ppl. Hopefully the improvements I have seen in Barry's game continue and he is able to keep the distance and keep it standing long enough to do serious damage
.5u or small parlay
Leaning toward Jimmo depending on line just due to explosiveness
Leaning Woodley as I see him being able to keep it on the feet with reverse wrestling as well as secure tds late in rds to secure them (really confused how the girl fight or jimmo fight made it on main card over this)
Leaning Jabouin as well, don't know how this isn't on the fx card has the potential to be a gr8 fight. Dustin just isn't that good kinda shocked of his 4 oppoents the only one he was able to beat was Papazian.
I mean, u gotta figure the main event got canceled due to Barao being out then Lil Nog and Shogun got canceled.... I mean Lil Nog Shogun was going to be a good fight visually... idk injury bug killed two main card fights.... still think they would have put the Shields vs Woodley fight on ppv... maybe they have a deal with FX or something to get them certain fights for them to air the prelims.
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I mean, u gotta figure the main event got canceled due to Barao being out then Lil Nog and Shogun got canceled.... I mean Lil Nog Shogun was going to be a good fight visually... idk injury bug killed two main card fights.... still think they would have put the Shields vs Woodley fight on ppv... maybe they have a deal with FX or something to get them certain fights for them to air the prelims.
I was really surprised with the paper view card. I would have done that they put the women's MMA fight on the undercard, knowing that there is higher-level fighters on the undercard like Shields and Woodley. Oh well I'm sure they have their reasons. This is one of the weakest cars once in a while. But then again we have gotten some good free fight cards. I was hoping the Shogun/Lil Nog rematch would be like their first fight. Looks like we'll have to wait a lil bit longer.
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I was really surprised with the paper view card. I would have done that they put the women's MMA fight on the undercard, knowing that there is higher-level fighters on the undercard like Shields and Woodley. Oh well I'm sure they have their reasons. This is one of the weakest cars once in a while. But then again we have gotten some good free fight cards. I was hoping the Shogun/Lil Nog rematch would be like their first fight. Looks like we'll have to wait a lil bit longer.
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