Posted:
#26
have been hard to imagine that this year’s running of the Belmont Stakes would be a true classic. But horse racing is
unpredictable. The horses are not only better than most suspected, all of the good ones are here! For the first time in the
history of the race, the top seven finishers from this year’s Kentucky Derby are all in the Belmont. Given that this is the
143
unpredictable. The horses are not only better than most suspected, all of the good ones are here! For the first time in the
history of the race, the top seven finishers from this year’s Kentucky Derby are all in the Belmont. Given that this is the
143
rd running of the race, that’s truly remarkable.
The Belmont is an anomaly. Its marathon 1 ½ mile distance is longer than virtually any other race run on dirt in America
all year. Few contemporary American thoroughbreds are bred to get this distance. The race is often won by grinding
types that simply keep plugging along, rather than the brilliant ones with explosive moves.
The race is a showdown between Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness winner Shackleford. Had
Animal Kingdom made up just a couple more feet in the Preakness (a race in which he had a bad trip), he’d be running for
the Triple Crown. I picked Animal Kingdom to win the Derby at 21-1 and to win the Preakness at 5-2. He is an
extraordinary horse. But the Belmont is a cash register race. Its distance has led to shocking results and I’ve made
major scores like Sarava’s 73-1 win a decade ago, and the one-two finish by Lemon Drop Kid at 30-1 and Vision and
Verse at 69-1. This is a race to look for longshots. Unfortunately, there don’t be appear to be any viable price plays and
the race looks to be centered on those seven that competed in the Derby.
The Belmont is an anomaly. Its marathon 1 ½ mile distance is longer than virtually any other race run on dirt in America
all year. Few contemporary American thoroughbreds are bred to get this distance. The race is often won by grinding
types that simply keep plugging along, rather than the brilliant ones with explosive moves.
The race is a showdown between Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness winner Shackleford. Had
Animal Kingdom made up just a couple more feet in the Preakness (a race in which he had a bad trip), he’d be running for
the Triple Crown. I picked Animal Kingdom to win the Derby at 21-1 and to win the Preakness at 5-2. He is an
extraordinary horse. But the Belmont is a cash register race. Its distance has led to shocking results and I’ve made
major scores like Sarava’s 73-1 win a decade ago, and the one-two finish by Lemon Drop Kid at 30-1 and Vision and
Verse at 69-1. This is a race to look for longshots. Unfortunately, there don’t be appear to be any viable price plays and
the race looks to be centered on those seven that competed in the Derby.
---This Irish-based horse has had a staggering schedule. He ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
at Churchill Downs last November, finished second in the rich UAE Derby in Dubai in March, shipped all the way back to
Ireland only to be sent back to Kentucky to run in the Derby last month where he ran a very respectable fifth. He was
flown back to Ireland after the Derby, only to be put right back on a plane to New York for this race. That’s not easy on a
horse. But, he is one of only three horses in this race truly bred for the distance. His trainer and owner dominate
international racing and specialize in three year olds. He has arguably the best rider in America in Garrett Gomez. The
two negatives are that he will be coming from well off a likely slow pace and he may be spent by all the traveling and
weather changes. If he can overcome those factors, he can win.
at Churchill Downs last November, finished second in the rich UAE Derby in Dubai in March, shipped all the way back to
Ireland only to be sent back to Kentucky to run in the Derby last month where he ran a very respectable fifth. He was
flown back to Ireland after the Derby, only to be put right back on a plane to New York for this race. That’s not easy on a
horse. But, he is one of only three horses in this race truly bred for the distance. His trainer and owner dominate
international racing and specialize in three year olds. He has arguably the best rider in America in Garrett Gomez. The
two negatives are that he will be coming from well off a likely slow pace and he may be spent by all the traveling and
weather changes. If he can overcome those factors, he can win.
---This horse has done nothing to suggest he can win but is trained by the great Todd Pletcher. I
suspect the reason the horse is here is because of the inability of his high profile owner to avoid the limelight.
suspect the reason the horse is here is because of the inability of his high profile owner to avoid the limelight.
---Maybe he’d have a shot if the race were run on ice. He is bred for races half this distance. The
Belmont has produced shocking results. A win by this horse would be one of them.
Belmont has produced shocking results. A win by this horse would be one of them.
---He ran a nice sixth in the Derby and finished virtually dead even with Master of Hounds. He skipped the
Preakness and, in the meantime, had two very good workouts at Churchill Downs. The breeding says the race is within
his scope. The trainer is solid. This horse would need to run the race of his life to win but he appears to be sitting on a
major performance. Don’t overlook.
Preakness and, in the meantime, had two very good workouts at Churchill Downs. The breeding says the race is within
his scope. The trainer is solid. This horse would need to run the race of his life to win but he appears to be sitting on a
major performance. Don’t overlook.
---This horse isn’t that good but he is ideally suited for this race. He is a grinding type who never
runs fast but never stops running. He reminds me very much of Drosselmeyer, an ordinary sort who won last year’s
Belmont (and hasn’t done a thing since). He will come from way off the pace and is certain to pass a bunch of horses in
the stretch. Whether he can pass all ten is the big question. At the very least, he can crack the trifecta and/or superfecta.
runs fast but never stops running. He reminds me very much of Drosselmeyer, an ordinary sort who won last year’s
Belmont (and hasn’t done a thing since). He will come from way off the pace and is certain to pass a bunch of horses in
the stretch. Whether he can pass all ten is the big question. At the very least, he can crack the trifecta and/or superfecta.
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