Gulfstream Park - 2/13

pretty wide open field of nine on the lawn i'll take a stab for a little value.

race 9

2 WP

5/1 ml.  recency, late speed, pattern, stamina.  going 7.5F here on the green which is two turns and the starting gate is almost on the first turn.  like the improvement in pattern moving to the lawn.  like the late zip (relative to these stiffs) last out and the comments "Settled, 4wd, gamely" mowing down a twelve horse field.  like the three drills since that race on 1/12.  looks like he is improving, healthy and fit, and ready to fire.  needs to save ground from the cozy inside and make the move sooner here shortening up.  looks like 1, 6, 7, and 8 could all be out front setting the pace.  don't wait too long to go after these bums just go get em at the quarter pole should have plenty of stamina to keep moving well down the lane.  figure the 4, 5, 7, and 9 could all get bet more than this 2. 

good luck

gulfstream

6/1 winner

recency, late speed, pattern, stamina

improving pattern, the best late speed, recency showing he is fit, healthy and ready to fire, and the stamina to flash that light speed and cruise right on by easily. 

thanks guys.

today's lesson to myself is a reminder as to how incredibly terrible and brutal some favorites are and how that creates value elsewhere.  i was watching this race on my phone doing some other things and I noticed the 2 was around 7/1 for a while and this 9 was down to 3/5 on the tote.  unreal.  but, yet it happens every day.

let's take a looksie at why the 9 was the chalk:

- Castellano took the mount

- trainer is 33% off the claim

- trainer is 32% off a 31-60 day break

- trainer is 24% on turf

- trainer/Javy click at 23% over the last two months

- horse missed by a length at roughly the same class level last out going a mile on turf

Notice anything?  there wasn't really squat about the horse that made him the favorite.

here's what I saw:

- in his last race he had a clear lead and crumbled late and the comments noted "5w 1st, no final kick"

- his "big win" was on a sloppy track against a five horse field consisting of four other bums were he was the even money chalk and won by nine lengths.  oh yeah, it was a conditional claimer non winners of two lifetime

- went to GP and sprinted on the main and didn't make up any ground in the stretch two back

- last race was almost five weeks ago and only one drill since

so, essentially this horse was under even money at one point because of the jock (who is an outstanding jockey but he can't do the running himself) and the trainer's stats off a claim.  this was a terrible, terrible, awful favorite based on recency and late speed among other things.  sometimes the favs are very legit and they make sense but plenty of times they are not.