yes I realize with the scratch it's a five horse field and smaller fields offer less value generally. yes i realize baffert has the horse with the highest speed fig overall and baffert is 37% off the +180 day break and the horse has been working up a storm for over a month now. i also realize he'll be 3/5 on the tote. yes I realize the 3 and 5 are effective closers and can scoop it up late if it melts down. thinking my horse could hang out around 7/2ish and i can live with that facing only four others.
race 6
6 WP
Recency - slight edge here. best race of his career on 7/29 and four nice and steady drills since then with one at 6F and one at 7F. 3 and 5 look fit and coming off wins but they have a pattern of inconsistency and i think the 3 may have too much recency (frequency). baffert's chalkie off a long break.
Late Speed - I have to project here fellas as he's never been a full trip around the oval. overall speed figs solid relative to these (last two were 94 and 92) and has employed a nice stalk and pounce style showing accelerating late speed in his last two sprints. willing to live with the risk that he will show enough late speed here at 8F. like how he sat nice and relaxed last out cruising just off a 45.68 and :57.68 clip and mowed them down late.
Pattern - overall improving pattern although his fig dipped from 94 to 92 last out. however i like the patient progress and back to back wins against fields open to older horses (today is restricted to 3YO). i also like the pattern of a maturing racing style. he gunned it out front his first two races and sat patiently in his last race. this is a reasonable move to jump into a non graded stake. Mandella also is 29% going sprint to route and is well known for being slow and methodical.
Speed/Pace/Stamina/Class/Distance/Surface - Overall speed stacks up well but no edge unless he improves which I expect him to do. solid on pace should comfortably sit a bit behind the chalkie and maybe the 4 horse early. the obvious question is distance and stamina. projecting he will get that based on the pattern/style, trainer, and blood. nobody oozes class in here that overwhelms the others. he's won on the polyfluff at the beach and the cushion up in Inglewood.
J/T Combo - Gomez solid all around no issues. Mandella is 23% off a 31-60 day break, 29% going sprint/route, and 21% off a win. stats support a solid effort stretching out off a win.
Breeding - no edge. no red flag. blood says he'll go further than just a mile but i'm not laying cash based on that expectation. no red flag and he could be any kind only three starts with the patient Mandella so only one way to find out for sure. somebody thought he was worth 900k.
hopefully they hammer the hell out of Baffert's horse and this guy takes another step forward today at 7/2ish.
good luck.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
yes I realize with the scratch it's a five horse field and smaller fields offer less value generally. yes i realize baffert has the horse with the highest speed fig overall and baffert is 37% off the +180 day break and the horse has been working up a storm for over a month now. i also realize he'll be 3/5 on the tote. yes I realize the 3 and 5 are effective closers and can scoop it up late if it melts down. thinking my horse could hang out around 7/2ish and i can live with that facing only four others.
race 6
6 WP
Recency - slight edge here. best race of his career on 7/29 and four nice and steady drills since then with one at 6F and one at 7F. 3 and 5 look fit and coming off wins but they have a pattern of inconsistency and i think the 3 may have too much recency (frequency). baffert's chalkie off a long break.
Late Speed - I have to project here fellas as he's never been a full trip around the oval. overall speed figs solid relative to these (last two were 94 and 92) and has employed a nice stalk and pounce style showing accelerating late speed in his last two sprints. willing to live with the risk that he will show enough late speed here at 8F. like how he sat nice and relaxed last out cruising just off a 45.68 and :57.68 clip and mowed them down late.
Pattern - overall improving pattern although his fig dipped from 94 to 92 last out. however i like the patient progress and back to back wins against fields open to older horses (today is restricted to 3YO). i also like the pattern of a maturing racing style. he gunned it out front his first two races and sat patiently in his last race. this is a reasonable move to jump into a non graded stake. Mandella also is 29% going sprint to route and is well known for being slow and methodical.
Speed/Pace/Stamina/Class/Distance/Surface - Overall speed stacks up well but no edge unless he improves which I expect him to do. solid on pace should comfortably sit a bit behind the chalkie and maybe the 4 horse early. the obvious question is distance and stamina. projecting he will get that based on the pattern/style, trainer, and blood. nobody oozes class in here that overwhelms the others. he's won on the polyfluff at the beach and the cushion up in Inglewood.
J/T Combo - Gomez solid all around no issues. Mandella is 23% off a 31-60 day break, 29% going sprint/route, and 21% off a win. stats support a solid effort stretching out off a win.
Breeding - no edge. no red flag. blood says he'll go further than just a mile but i'm not laying cash based on that expectation. no red flag and he could be any kind only three starts with the patient Mandella so only one way to find out for sure. somebody thought he was worth 900k.
hopefully they hammer the hell out of Baffert's horse and this guy takes another step forward today at 7/2ish.
the way I look at it from a single race perspective is that I can justify swinging against Baffert here. yes his horse is working like a beast and Baffert is sick off the long layoff. but, his figs on dirt are significantly higher than the one race he ran at Hollywood. granted that was his debut so he did improve off of that. that 97 beyer fig he got is what will make him the odds on chalkie. however, beyer figs take into account margin of victory and the humans finalizing the figs can be swayed by the "wow factor". he won by almost six lengths and looked good. i'm not saying the fig was bullshit but I am saying i will test him to see if he can run back to that off a six month layoff.
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good luck to us then.
the way I look at it from a single race perspective is that I can justify swinging against Baffert here. yes his horse is working like a beast and Baffert is sick off the long layoff. but, his figs on dirt are significantly higher than the one race he ran at Hollywood. granted that was his debut so he did improve off of that. that 97 beyer fig he got is what will make him the odds on chalkie. however, beyer figs take into account margin of victory and the humans finalizing the figs can be swayed by the "wow factor". he won by almost six lengths and looked good. i'm not saying the fig was bullshit but I am saying i will test him to see if he can run back to that off a six month layoff.
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