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Probability

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Posted: #26
I did read that accounting for a push is basically not necessary because the change which occurs in the final numbers is not sufficient enough to warrant going through the extra calculations.


I first want to know if my math is correct.  If so, I have a question...


If running the Kelly formula produces a recommendation to wager, then will I still have to run the EV and EG formulas?  Or, will the EV and EG always be positive as long as I am only wagering full Kelly or less?
 
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Posted: #27
So, to boil this down to something I/we can use everyday... If EV and EG are always going to be positive, given a positive Kelly recommendation, then...

I can take the difference between my projected spread and the actual spread, then convert that to a win probability via a spread/ml converter tool.  From there, it's just a matter of plugging my odds (-105, -110, etc) and probability into the Kelly formula of:

Kelly = (probability * odds - 1) / (odds - 1)
 
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Posted: #28
OK guys... I may be the only one still reading this thread, but what the hell...

I've made a quick and dirty spreadsheet in excel 2007 that will take your input of odds (in American format) and win probability (as a percentage) from which, it will calculate full kelly, EV, and EG.  I added a couple of columns that will give you 1/2 kelly and 1/5 kelly recommendations (and their respective EV's and EG's).

If you're interested, here's the link: https://www.4shared.com/file/piIq0giO/Kelly_Criterion_and_other_func.html

I protected the worksheet so I wouldn't accidentally erase anything.  Basically, it will only allow you to input odds and probability in the yellow boxes.  However, to unprotect, you can go to "review" and click "unprotect sheet".  There is no password.

 
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Posted: #29
It's interesting to note that, given a 60% win probability, the difference in the EV between odds of -110 and odds of -102 is nearly 1.3% (odds of -110 = +2.33% EV, while odds of  -102 = +3.61% EV).   The difference in EG is .66%. 

I guess Vanzack was right when he kept advising us over and over that part of being a successful gambler is shopping for odds, not just capping!  (not that I ever doubted his superior knowledge)
 
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Posted: #30
I guarantee you 95% of the guys posting on this site have no clue what any of this means.   



And they have no chance of winning in the long run without it.    If you don't know when you have an advantage it's impossible to win.  


Computing lines is not easy though.  
 
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Posted: #31
I tend to agree greyhound...
 
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Posted: #32
and... who's that dude in your avatar, by the way? 




(can't believe i forgot to ask that)
 
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Posted: #33
100% chance that Rostos will complain about refs this week,,,
 
 
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Posted: #34
Never been a fan of statistics.  Did well with the subject in college, though, but it just plain didn't seem applicable to real life.

But I'm starting to be re-converted after seeing how math whizzes are sweeping old-school poker players off the floor with their stat analyses.

Should be interesting to see how it works for pro sports betting.  
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