So the linesmaker in order to get 50/50 action said to himself: "The Colts are undefeated and so this week I will open the 5-4 Ravens as a -1 favorite"?
You sir live in a dream world. Ravens -1 was a troll for Colts money and they were successful. Indy is going down.
I'm a believer that this happens not all the time, but at least a handful of games a week. My .02
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Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:
So the linesmaker in order to get 50/50 action said to himself: "The Colts are undefeated and so this week I will open the 5-4 Ravens as a -1 favorite"?
You sir live in a dream world. Ravens -1 was a troll for Colts money and they were successful. Indy is going down.
I'm a believer that this happens not all the time, but at least a handful of games a week. My .02
If you're such a good 'capper and have such a good handle on the entire realm of sports betting, then why do you need the Baltimore/Indianapolis game to prove your point? If you really knew what you were talking about, then you'd know that one game does not prove or disprove any kind of theory. Therefore, regardless of what happens in this one game tomorrow, it won't prove you an idiot or a genius one way or the other.
Though I'd beg to differ...
You're acting like the outcome of this game is already decided! That's hilarious to me.
Well fucking said!
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Quote Originally Posted by ILLZ:
Currrtis -
If you're such a good 'capper and have such a good handle on the entire realm of sports betting, then why do you need the Baltimore/Indianapolis game to prove your point? If you really knew what you were talking about, then you'd know that one game does not prove or disprove any kind of theory. Therefore, regardless of what happens in this one game tomorrow, it won't prove you an idiot or a genius one way or the other.
Though I'd beg to differ...
You're acting like the outcome of this game is already decided! That's hilarious to me.
You are a true fucking idiot. Tell me smart ass, where did you get those figures...75% and 25% from Cover's consensus picks? People that pick winners with no actual money on the line? You are a moron. You don't have a fucking clue as to what percentage of the money is on each team so please do us all a favor and shut the fuck up you stupid fuck.
Lol. I bet he doesn't return to Covers if the Colts win tomorrow.
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Quote Originally Posted by RickeM:
You are a true fucking idiot. Tell me smart ass, where did you get those figures...75% and 25% from Cover's consensus picks? People that pick winners with no actual money on the line? You are a moron. You don't have a fucking clue as to what percentage of the money is on each team so please do us all a favor and shut the fuck up you stupid fuck.
Lol. I bet he doesn't return to Covers if the Colts win tomorrow.
I'm a believer that this happens not all the time, but at least a handful of games a week. My .02
You're absolutely right. Vegas has a handful of games that they have very good leans on. Last week, I thought the Car-Atl game was a "trap" and Carolina did win. I thought the Was-Den game was a "trap" and it took a 4th and 20 fake punt for a TD and a Kyle Orton injury for Washington to cover and win that game. Finally, I really thought that Bengals +6.5,7 was a trap, I really thought that same thing would happened when the Steelers were 6 point favs vs the Vikings and Chargers and covered both games. Shit happens and I really don't belive games are fixed, but to say you know what is going to happen tomorrow and act like the game is over already, is just obsurd! What if Ray Rice and Flacco get injured? No one knows the future.
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Quote Originally Posted by dennishopson:
I'm a believer that this happens not all the time, but at least a handful of games a week. My .02
You're absolutely right. Vegas has a handful of games that they have very good leans on. Last week, I thought the Car-Atl game was a "trap" and Carolina did win. I thought the Was-Den game was a "trap" and it took a 4th and 20 fake punt for a TD and a Kyle Orton injury for Washington to cover and win that game. Finally, I really thought that Bengals +6.5,7 was a trap, I really thought that same thing would happened when the Steelers were 6 point favs vs the Vikings and Chargers and covered both games. Shit happens and I really don't belive games are fixed, but to say you know what is going to happen tomorrow and act like the game is over already, is just obsurd! What if Ray Rice and Flacco get injured? No one knows the future.
MAN O MAN ARE SOME PEOPLE STUPID, I HONESTLY CANT RESPOND TO THIS, WHAT IF ANY KNOWLEDGE DOES A POSTER WHO DARES TO WRITE THIS HAVE OF THE NFL GAME. MAN O MAN WILL SUNDAY AFTERNOON HURRY UP SO I CAN PROVE MY POINT BECAUSE IM TIRED OF DEALING WITH PEOPLE THAT THINK THE NFL IS FAIRLY RUN AND VEGAS IS IN IT JUST TO SPLIT THE ACTION.....IF THEY MADE THERE PROFITS FROM JUST THE VIG WHY WOULDNT EVERYONE BECOME BOOKIES? THATS BECAUSE VEGAS CALLS THE SHOTS, EVERY NFL GAME IS CALLED FROM ABOVE....WEEK 1 "TIPPED PASS" THAT HELPED DENVER WIN THE GAME OUTRIGHT.....VEGAS, WEEK 2 "JEFF REED MISSING 2 FIELD GOALS TO GIVE CHICAGO A SHOT AT WINNING THE GAME WHICH THEY ENDED UP DOING" VEGAS, WEEK 3, PITTSBURGHS 2ND HALF DESTRUCTION TO LET CINCINATTI WIN...VEGAS WEEK 4, MARK CLAYTONS DROPPED 4TH QUARTER PASS TO END THE LAST DRIVE FOR BALTIMORE TO GIVE NE THE WIN......VEGAS, WEEK 5,THE 4 PENALTIES ON BALTIMORE ON THE FINAL DRIVE VS CINCINATTI TO GIVE THEM THE BENGALS THE VICTORY....VEGAS, WEEK 7, THE FINAL DRIVE FOR MINNESOTA WERE FAVRE FUMBLES THE BALL AND THEN A 400 LB GUY RUNS THE WHOLE FIELD TO COVER THE SPREAD FOR PITTSBURGH AS MINNESOTA HAD 64% ML AND 58 % SPREAD ACTION.......VEGAS, WEEK 8, SAINTS UP BY 11, 30 SECONDS TO GO ATLANTA GETS A GARBAGE FIELD GOAL SO THAT ALL BETS FOR NEW ORLEANS ARE LOSERS AS THERE WERE SOME BETTORS WHO HAD -10....VEGAS, WEEK 9, PHILADELPHIA GOES FOR IT ON 4TH AND 1 AND SOMEHOW WALT COLEMAN SAYS THE EAGLES ARE SHORT, CALL A QUESTIONABLE HOLD ON A KICKOFF RETURN FOR A TD..........VEGAS WEEK 10, HERES 1 THAT WILL GET YOU, LET THE COLTS WIN THE GAME BY A NUMBER SO THEY CANT COVER THE SPREAD......I SWEAR ITS SCRIPTED THIS GAME LOL TOMORROW YOU WILL SEE MANNING PLAY SO QUESTIONABLE THAT WILL MAKE YOU THINK...............WOW, LIKE ROMO LAST WEEK, I PROMISE YOU THAT. THIS GAME IS FIXED AND I CASH IN ON IT, THE SOONER YOU ACCEPT THE FACT THE EASIER THIS RIDE WILL BE. BOL EVERYBODY WHICHEVER SIDE YOUR ON, BUT IM ON BALTIMORE.
I don't even know where to start
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Quote Originally Posted by CURRRTIS123:
MAN O MAN ARE SOME PEOPLE STUPID, I HONESTLY CANT RESPOND TO THIS, WHAT IF ANY KNOWLEDGE DOES A POSTER WHO DARES TO WRITE THIS HAVE OF THE NFL GAME. MAN O MAN WILL SUNDAY AFTERNOON HURRY UP SO I CAN PROVE MY POINT BECAUSE IM TIRED OF DEALING WITH PEOPLE THAT THINK THE NFL IS FAIRLY RUN AND VEGAS IS IN IT JUST TO SPLIT THE ACTION.....IF THEY MADE THERE PROFITS FROM JUST THE VIG WHY WOULDNT EVERYONE BECOME BOOKIES? THATS BECAUSE VEGAS CALLS THE SHOTS, EVERY NFL GAME IS CALLED FROM ABOVE....WEEK 1 "TIPPED PASS" THAT HELPED DENVER WIN THE GAME OUTRIGHT.....VEGAS, WEEK 2 "JEFF REED MISSING 2 FIELD GOALS TO GIVE CHICAGO A SHOT AT WINNING THE GAME WHICH THEY ENDED UP DOING" VEGAS, WEEK 3, PITTSBURGHS 2ND HALF DESTRUCTION TO LET CINCINATTI WIN...VEGAS WEEK 4, MARK CLAYTONS DROPPED 4TH QUARTER PASS TO END THE LAST DRIVE FOR BALTIMORE TO GIVE NE THE WIN......VEGAS, WEEK 5,THE 4 PENALTIES ON BALTIMORE ON THE FINAL DRIVE VS CINCINATTI TO GIVE THEM THE BENGALS THE VICTORY....VEGAS, WEEK 7, THE FINAL DRIVE FOR MINNESOTA WERE FAVRE FUMBLES THE BALL AND THEN A 400 LB GUY RUNS THE WHOLE FIELD TO COVER THE SPREAD FOR PITTSBURGH AS MINNESOTA HAD 64% ML AND 58 % SPREAD ACTION.......VEGAS, WEEK 8, SAINTS UP BY 11, 30 SECONDS TO GO ATLANTA GETS A GARBAGE FIELD GOAL SO THAT ALL BETS FOR NEW ORLEANS ARE LOSERS AS THERE WERE SOME BETTORS WHO HAD -10....VEGAS, WEEK 9, PHILADELPHIA GOES FOR IT ON 4TH AND 1 AND SOMEHOW WALT COLEMAN SAYS THE EAGLES ARE SHORT, CALL A QUESTIONABLE HOLD ON A KICKOFF RETURN FOR A TD..........VEGAS WEEK 10, HERES 1 THAT WILL GET YOU, LET THE COLTS WIN THE GAME BY A NUMBER SO THEY CANT COVER THE SPREAD......I SWEAR ITS SCRIPTED THIS GAME LOL TOMORROW YOU WILL SEE MANNING PLAY SO QUESTIONABLE THAT WILL MAKE YOU THINK...............WOW, LIKE ROMO LAST WEEK, I PROMISE YOU THAT. THIS GAME IS FIXED AND I CASH IN ON IT, THE SOONER YOU ACCEPT THE FACT THE EASIER THIS RIDE WILL BE. BOL EVERYBODY WHICHEVER SIDE YOUR ON, BUT IM ON BALTIMORE.
I thought this topic would have died out when I got into the mix arguing before the Indy/Tenn game. But nope, all I heard after an easy Indy cover was "Don't tell me that line was made to get equal action". Sure enough next weekend the "fishy" lines were being discussed totally ignoring what happened the week before.
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I thought this topic would have died out when I got into the mix arguing before the Indy/Tenn game. But nope, all I heard after an easy Indy cover was "Don't tell me that line was made to get equal action". Sure enough next weekend the "fishy" lines were being discussed totally ignoring what happened the week before.
What my understanding of the casino management books I read is most books in Vegas are happy to pull in between 3 to 5 % profit from their sportsbook. And the sportsbook is used as a loss leader to bring in gamblers who then play some craps, blackjack, etc.
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What my understanding of the casino management books I read is most books in Vegas are happy to pull in between 3 to 5 % profit from their sportsbook. And the sportsbook is used as a loss leader to bring in gamblers who then play some craps, blackjack, etc.
C'mon ILLZ, get your ass over here and man-up and tell the Cover's community how big of a fucking ass clown you are! Man the fuck up. At least have the balls to admit that you were dead wrong.
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Where is this fucking douche bag?
C'mon ILLZ, get your ass over here and man-up and tell the Cover's community how big of a fucking ass clown you are! Man the fuck up. At least have the balls to admit that you were dead wrong.
if they wanted equal action why not set a true line 6.5 or 7.? enough, vegas owns people like you.
Dude you're a moron, 1 for thinking that 6.5 or 7 would generated equal action on that game and 2 for listing stats on this site as an accurate action split. People who bet $20 a game are filling out online surveys on who they like (your percentages), people who bet $20,000 a game are not. So while 75% of your people are on one team the big fish are probably split just right to make the 50/50 split.
Unless a sports book manager is an idiot 50/50 split is 99% of the time what they shoot for.
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Quote Originally Posted by CURRRTIS123:
if they wanted equal action why not set a true line 6.5 or 7.? enough, vegas owns people like you.
Dude you're a moron, 1 for thinking that 6.5 or 7 would generated equal action on that game and 2 for listing stats on this site as an accurate action split. People who bet $20 a game are filling out online surveys on who they like (your percentages), people who bet $20,000 a game are not. So while 75% of your people are on one team the big fish are probably split just right to make the 50/50 split.
Unless a sports book manager is an idiot 50/50 split is 99% of the time what they shoot for.
HEY CURRRTIS, SO HOW DID THE RAVENS MAKE OUT, HOPE YOU DIDN'T BET THE HOUSE! YOU REALLY NEED TO TO TAKE A REALITY CHECK! TRY RUNNING REALLY FAST INTO A BRICK WALL AND LET ME KNOW THE OUTCOME SINCE YOU HAVE EVERYTHING FIGURED OUT! HOPEFULLY YOU DON'T FUCK LIKE YOU BET CUZ YOU ARE FUCKED!
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HEY CURRRTIS, SO HOW DID THE RAVENS MAKE OUT, HOPE YOU DIDN'T BET THE HOUSE! YOU REALLY NEED TO TO TAKE A REALITY CHECK! TRY RUNNING REALLY FAST INTO A BRICK WALL AND LET ME KNOW THE OUTCOME SINCE YOU HAVE EVERYTHING FIGURED OUT! HOPEFULLY YOU DON'T FUCK LIKE YOU BET CUZ YOU ARE FUCKED!
I've been seeing on this forum a recent uptick in the philosophy that Vegas doesn't set the line with equal action in mind. THIS IS INHERENTLY LUDICROUS.
Two reasons:
1) Vegas wouldn't mess with a sure thing. The sure thing is getting equal action, taking the juice, and calling it a day. Do they know more than most of us? Definitely. Do they have a better idea about the outcome of a given game than most of us? Definitely. Would they risk making their money (the juice), by adjusting the line to get more action on the losing end? NO. This is a game. Anything can happen. There is so much luck involved in a single game there is no point in backing yourself into a corner, so they wouldn't do that. They don't own Biff's sports almanac from Back to the Future 2. They want equal action.
2) There are 3 ways to gamble long-term for a profit. Poker, sports, and horse racing. Do you know why those 3 over all the others? Because in all 3, you're betting against someone else, not the house. You're not a better handicapper than the linesmakers. You are a better handicapper than Bob from the down the street. Which is where your advantage is. If Vegas truly made the lines with the intention of getting more action on the losing end, then we'd all be losers, long-term. We are not all long-term losers. We betting against Vegas, we aren'tare betting against Bob from down the street, and Bob loves him some road favorites.
Enough with the conspiracy theories already!
Late to the party.... but I have to disagree with your #1 premise. You are basically saying that Vegas does NOT try to maximize profits. They are a numbers based group and surely they must run everything based on maximizing profits and not minimizing risk.
While I generally think the default for them is to balance action, I have no doubt they treak lines and weigh action based on statistics over time. If high profile teams like the Lakers, Cowboys, Florida etc tend to bet / lose a certain direction yet the public tends to give more than their fare share of weight to one side, why would Vegas not want to maximize profits? An entry level financial analyst would tell you the proper decision is to do it, surely the Vegas group knows it as well.
If you walk into Vegas and offer them $5 guaranteed or 20% @ $100 I bet you are going to see them take the chance at the latter...
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Quote Originally Posted by ILLZ:
I've been seeing on this forum a recent uptick in the philosophy that Vegas doesn't set the line with equal action in mind. THIS IS INHERENTLY LUDICROUS.
Two reasons:
1) Vegas wouldn't mess with a sure thing. The sure thing is getting equal action, taking the juice, and calling it a day. Do they know more than most of us? Definitely. Do they have a better idea about the outcome of a given game than most of us? Definitely. Would they risk making their money (the juice), by adjusting the line to get more action on the losing end? NO. This is a game. Anything can happen. There is so much luck involved in a single game there is no point in backing yourself into a corner, so they wouldn't do that. They don't own Biff's sports almanac from Back to the Future 2. They want equal action.
2) There are 3 ways to gamble long-term for a profit. Poker, sports, and horse racing. Do you know why those 3 over all the others? Because in all 3, you're betting against someone else, not the house. You're not a better handicapper than the linesmakers. You are a better handicapper than Bob from the down the street. Which is where your advantage is. If Vegas truly made the lines with the intention of getting more action on the losing end, then we'd all be losers, long-term. We are not all long-term losers. We betting against Vegas, we aren'tare betting against Bob from down the street, and Bob loves him some road favorites.
Enough with the conspiracy theories already!
Late to the party.... but I have to disagree with your #1 premise. You are basically saying that Vegas does NOT try to maximize profits. They are a numbers based group and surely they must run everything based on maximizing profits and not minimizing risk.
While I generally think the default for them is to balance action, I have no doubt they treak lines and weigh action based on statistics over time. If high profile teams like the Lakers, Cowboys, Florida etc tend to bet / lose a certain direction yet the public tends to give more than their fare share of weight to one side, why would Vegas not want to maximize profits? An entry level financial analyst would tell you the proper decision is to do it, surely the Vegas group knows it as well.
If you walk into Vegas and offer them $5 guaranteed or 20% @ $100 I bet you are going to see them take the chance at the latter...
So when the "house" makes their money they always put it into the bank to collect guaranteed interest rather than taking a risk in the market or heaven forbid "risk" funding expansion in hopes of making more money.....
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Quote Originally Posted by dave9981$:
WRONG!!!!!!!
They will take the guaranteed money EVERY TIME!!
So when the "house" makes their money they always put it into the bank to collect guaranteed interest rather than taking a risk in the market or heaven forbid "risk" funding expansion in hopes of making more money.....
My instincts tell me not to read this thread for fear of losing at least 15 minutes of my life.
I thought the same thing.
In fact I avoided this thread until now because it is still getting posts, and I saw that you posted in the better biz bureau thread, so I stopped in here to see what you had to say
I am not going to start replying to responses but here's my .02 - Stop worrying about how they make the line . That is a battle you are not going to win. Learn what the line means. This is no more credible than any other opinion on here but here is my mentality on most of the bigger plays I make which all have to do with "trap" lines and fishy line movement. If you can tell for sure that Vegas is inducing action on one side and the line moves across a key number that they would not normally give up, chances are the late action catching the 3.5 points will not cover. The major flaw with this is that if a game moves from -5.5 to -7.5 you have to take it at the much higher line, but I take the -7.5. I did a terrible job of explaining but I don't even know why I'm writing this so oh well. Bye.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
My instincts tell me not to read this thread for fear of losing at least 15 minutes of my life.
I thought the same thing.
In fact I avoided this thread until now because it is still getting posts, and I saw that you posted in the better biz bureau thread, so I stopped in here to see what you had to say
I am not going to start replying to responses but here's my .02 - Stop worrying about how they make the line . That is a battle you are not going to win. Learn what the line means. This is no more credible than any other opinion on here but here is my mentality on most of the bigger plays I make which all have to do with "trap" lines and fishy line movement. If you can tell for sure that Vegas is inducing action on one side and the line moves across a key number that they would not normally give up, chances are the late action catching the 3.5 points will not cover. The major flaw with this is that if a game moves from -5.5 to -7.5 you have to take it at the much higher line, but I take the -7.5. I did a terrible job of explaining but I don't even know why I'm writing this so oh well. Bye.
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Lol. I bet he doesn't return to Covers if the Colts win tomorrow.
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