CAN WE FINALLY PUT THIS TO BED???

I've been seeing on this forum a recent uptick in the philosophy that Vegas doesn't set the line with equal action in mind.  THIS IS INHERENTLY LUDICROUS.

Two reasons:

1) Vegas wouldn't mess with a sure thing.  The sure thing is getting equal action, taking the juice, and calling it a day.  Do they know more than most of us?  Definitely.  Do they have a better idea about the outcome of a given game than most of us?  Definitely.  Would they risk making their money (the juice), by adjusting the line to get more action on the losing end?  NO.  This is a game.  Anything can happen.  There is so much luck involved in a single game there is no point in backing yourself into a corner, so they wouldn't do that.  They don't own Biff's sports almanac from Back to the Future 2.  They want equal action.

2)  There are 3 ways to gamble long-term for a profit.  Poker, sports, and horse racing.  Do you know why those 3 over all the others?  Because in all 3, you're betting against someone else, not the house.  You're not a better handicapper than the linesmakers.  You are a better handicapper than Bob from the down the street.  Which is where your advantage is.  If Vegas truly made the lines with the intention of getting more action on the losing end, then we'd all be losers, long-term.  We are not all long-term losers.  We betting against Vegas, we aren'tare betting against Bob from down the street, and Bob loves him some road favorites.

Enough with the conspiracy theories already!

While I agree with the content in your post, you should just listen to your avatar and "Let It Be."  Nothing good will come out of the ensuing war of idiots.

Equal action? why is a 9-0 team only a 1 point fave at baltimore then buddy, 75% 25% is not equal, you dont know the first thing about the betting game, theres more to it than what goes on the field.

if they wanted equal action why not set a true line 6.5 or 7.? enough, vegas owns people like you.

l like Ravens this weekend not because of the Colts +1, PK or -1.5, but Ravens are a value bet from my perspectives. Granted, Browns are not a good football team but to shut them down in their home when Browns and Mangini had two weeks to prepare for the Ravens? That's some damm football. Colts could have their 1st loss last week if "genius" Belichick did not call 4th and 2 play deep in Pats' own territory.

So the linesmaker in order to get 50/50 action said to himself: "The Colts are undefeated and so this week I will open the 5-4 Ravens as a -1 favorite"?

You sir live in a dream world.  Ravens -1 was a troll for Colts money and they were successful. Indy is going down.

After the Colts blew out the RAMS.....they played close games against Houston and San Francisco.  Hardly "elite" teams.  Then they "should have/could have" lost to the Patriots.

Since blowing out the Rams, they are 0-3 ATS.  Now they travel to blitz happy Baltimore, who has good, physical running backs.  Not to mention the Colts have a slew of injuries, especially in the secondary.

Remember, the computers put out the line, they are then adjusted by oddsmakers and by the betting public. 

Indy -1.5 is fair....its possible we could see -3 on game day.  Depends on how heavily the Indy dollars come in.   

OK, let's use this week's IND/BAL as an example.  You believe that this line is a "too good to be true" line, correct?  So you think the linesmakers said to themselves, "a fair line is much higher, but we know Baltimore will win this one outright, so let's entice alot of action on the Colts, and clean up"?  That's ridiculous.

So what if the Colts get a few lucky calls, a few unfortunate fluky turnovers, a few quirky plays, and they end up winning?  That's entirely possible, right?  THE LINESMAKERS TAKE A BATH.  There's no way in hell they get greedy and take that chance.  Instead, they set the line for equal action.  If they aren't getting equal action, then the line moves to make up for it.

I'm not saying they don't know what they're doing.  I'm not saying they couldn't manipulate the action in a way that would benefit them.  I'm saying this is a sport that involves a certain degree of luck on a game-to-game basis, and they wouldn't take the chance.

Currrtis is looking at it from the wrong angle. Equal action means equal money... so the percentage of people on the colts vs. the ravens doesn't really matter.  It is the percentage of money (not all bettors are the same) that equals out.

What he said.

MAN O MAN ARE SOME PEOPLE STUPID, I HONESTLY CANT RESPOND TO THIS, WHAT IF ANY KNOWLEDGE DOES A POSTER WHO DARES TO WRITE THIS HAVE OF THE NFL GAME. MAN O MAN WILL SUNDAY AFTERNOON HURRY UP SO I CAN PROVE MY POINT BECAUSE IM TIRED OF DEALING WITH PEOPLE THAT THINK THE NFL IS FAIRLY RUN AND VEGAS IS IN IT JUST TO SPLIT THE ACTION.....IF THEY MADE THERE PROFITS FROM JUST THE VIG WHY WOULDNT EVERYONE BECOME BOOKIES? THATS BECAUSE VEGAS CALLS THE SHOTS, EVERY NFL GAME IS CALLED FROM ABOVE....WEEK 1 "TIPPED PASS" THAT HELPED DENVER WIN THE GAME OUTRIGHT.....VEGAS, WEEK 2 "JEFF REED MISSING 2 FIELD GOALS TO GIVE CHICAGO A SHOT AT WINNING THE GAME WHICH THEY ENDED UP DOING" VEGAS, WEEK 3, PITTSBURGHS 2ND HALF DESTRUCTION TO LET CINCINATTI WIN...VEGAS WEEK 4, MARK CLAYTONS DROPPED 4TH QUARTER PASS TO END THE LAST DRIVE FOR BALTIMORE TO GIVE NE THE WIN......VEGAS, WEEK 5,THE 4 PENALTIES ON BALTIMORE ON THE FINAL DRIVE VS CINCINATTI TO GIVE THEM THE BENGALS THE VICTORY....VEGAS, WEEK 7, THE FINAL DRIVE FOR MINNESOTA WERE FAVRE FUMBLES THE BALL AND THEN A 400 LB GUY RUNS THE WHOLE FIELD TO COVER THE SPREAD FOR PITTSBURGH AS MINNESOTA HAD 64% ML AND 58 % SPREAD ACTION.......VEGAS, WEEK 8, SAINTS UP BY 11, 30 SECONDS TO GO ATLANTA GETS A GARBAGE FIELD GOAL SO THAT ALL BETS FOR NEW ORLEANS ARE LOSERS AS THERE WERE SOME BETTORS WHO HAD -10....VEGAS, WEEK 9, PHILADELPHIA GOES FOR IT ON 4TH AND 1 AND SOMEHOW WALT COLEMAN SAYS THE EAGLES ARE SHORT, CALL A QUESTIONABLE HOLD ON A KICKOFF RETURN FOR A TD..........VEGAS WEEK 10, HERES 1 THAT WILL GET YOU, LET THE COLTS WIN THE GAME BY A NUMBER SO THEY CANT COVER THE SPREAD......I SWEAR ITS SCRIPTED THIS GAME LOL TOMORROW YOU WILL SEE MANNING PLAY SO QUESTIONABLE THAT WILL MAKE YOU THINK...............WOW, LIKE ROMO LAST WEEK, I PROMISE YOU THAT. THIS GAME IS FIXED AND I CASH IN ON IT, THE SOONER YOU ACCEPT THE FACT THE EASIER THIS RIDE WILL BE. BOL EVERYBODY WHICHEVER SIDE YOUR ON, BUT IM ON BALTIMORE.

CURRTIS-

And by the way, as a huge Colts fan, I personally think the 1 point line is on the money.  Yes, they should win, and yes, Baltimore's secondary and front 7 isn't as strong as it's been in the past, but they are still cut out to play as good of defense as any team in the NFL on any given Sunday.  Throw in the fact that the Colts are more than likely not going to finish undefeated, and you've got a good probability they lose this weekend.  Will it be this weekend or next?  I hope neither, but the line tells the story.

Conspiracy theorist?....ok we will see tomorrow at 4.15 after the game whos the conspiracy theorist.

I don't understand this retard talk.  So Vegas knows everything, but they always win on some lucky crazy play?  Are you saying the games are rigged? 

 

Currrtis-  read both posts, and all of them.

oh my god, yes they are rigged ive been cashing in for the past 2 years. lets just say when the ravens win tomorrow, i will be unveiling another sucker bet its week 12 monday night game.... i will private message people the reason. cant sunday hurry up, everyone thinks im some loonie thats drunk lol once the ravens cash in people will see my side of the coin and then next weeks monday night game is some serious money making game, no leans, no statistical advantage just 1 rule of thumb i will private message a good few.

Indy will be a -3 or -3.5 point favourite by game time and that is where Vegas will get their equal action as money will pour in on Baltimore, plus a FG at home.

i guarantee you the line does not get past -2.5 colts, GUARANTEE.

Currrtis -

If you're such a good 'capper and have such a good handle on the entire realm of sports betting, then why do you need the Baltimore/Indianapolis game to prove your point?  If you really knew what you were talking about, then you'd know that one game does not prove or disprove any kind of theory.  Therefore, regardless of what happens in this one game tomorrow, it won't prove you an idiot or a genius one way or the other. 

Though I'd beg to differ...

You're acting like the outcome of this game is already decided!  That's hilarious to me.

You are a true fucking idiot. Tell me smart ass, where did you get those figures...75% and 25% from Cover's consensus picks? People that pick winners with no actual money on the line? You are a moron. You don't have a fucking clue as to what percentage of the money is on each team so please do us all a favor and shut the fuck up you stupid fuck.

CURRRTIS123