Best betting advice you will ever get....anywhere:

The advice?  On here it is simple; Anyone posting thier 'locks' and supporting it with thier logic, but have hidden their pick histories.... go the other way on every one of their picks, or stay away from the games they are playing.... these guys are distraught that they are 'so smart', but pick they pick at -38% (even a blind squirell finds a nut sometimes) and seem to find pleasure in others thinking they know what they are talking about.

I live in Vegas now (18 months), and been on covers for a while.  The things live books, and internet betting sites have in common:

1) 95% of sports bettors can't pick winners  half of the time; they lose, and lose, win, lose, lose, lose, and lose.  It is like dark clouds are hanging over their heads

2) The 95%'ers put the incredible effort into pushing their 'locks', and 'guarantees' on others... I never could figure out why they do this.

3) They talk 95% of the winning picks the had, and 5% of the ones they should have won if only.......this....that.....ect.  On here you can recognize them as the ppl who have been members for a long time, hide their pick histories, but post their plays in the blog stating "I went 7-2 this week" .... remember the blind squirell cliche? lol....

4) They claim to be 'up' long term, but can't prove it, and are usually in less than stellar moods at the end of games.

5) The LOVE parlays, but claim they don't..... be super cautious of those recommending parlays.

Guys, use your heads... the smart guys on here that care to blog thier plays, show their pick histories which are over 50%........know what they are talking about...... I win here in vegas mainly b/c of these (on covers) guys who know what they doing... have winning records that they have for all to see, and are kind enough to share their wisdom... I cant pick over 50% in anything but hockey, but I don't even post my picks on hockey b/c I am not that good..... but atleast I don't need push my losers on others.... to those of you winners who are out there for all to see, I thank you....you make me money.

Quote Originally Posted by jkochvar:

Well then maybe you'd like to hear my lock for tomorrow's NFL games?

Kidding, I know what you mean man.  Good points you've made.  Glad some people can benefit from sifting through all the shit on this site.  A few years ago this and Wagerline used to be a reliable place to get good handicapping advice.

GL tomorrow

gl to you as well bro.

I can see you are not very effective in your reading comprehension, I will elaborate for you:  Not a "random" guy off covers; someone whom I can see has been effective short/long term.  My point is that you should not listen to 'random' guys on here.  2) I absolutely do have opinions, but I cannot match success with those whom I do 'listen' to.  I have taken something I am mediocre at, and I make money by listening to the 'gifted' ones... I call that intellect that is not overshadowed by ego, and from the sound of your reply; I don't think you possess the needed tools to mimick this techique.

Quote Originally Posted by dennishopson:

renroh, this is hardly a revelation to anyone older than 20 that has been doing this for longer than one season in any sport.

I'll take it one step further,...thanks for the educational thread

.....but no one that can add 2 and 2 follows or chases threads with "lock" and "guarantee" in the title.

Thanks for helping us with this dilema that we've all been having with this issue.....

Hey bro,

I agree it is common sense, but I see the same ppl make the same mistakes here, and in the live books.  I actually have a friend who swears to me he wins consistently, but any moron would know that could not possibly be true.  He will push everyone that will listen to take his picks on any day... he goes into all the logical reasoning, the trends ect... and ppl still listen to him, and I just can't understand it.  I just thought maybe some newby would possibly benefit from this post.  If it saves one person a dollar, it was worth the time.

Quote Originally Posted by jay10:

Thanks Einstein for the post........You have done your Mom proud.....

Im with you here!!