Wisconsin at Tennessee (01/01/2008)

Quote Originally Posted by coverditty:

Alright I've been nailing the Tennessee games all year, as I should since I bleed orange and white...

 

This one hurts me badly to say....I could give you a write up a mile long on this game if i had too...but hopefully you'll just remember my tennessee history and ride with me!!!

 

Tennessee 20

Wisconsin 21

 

but i'll take my chances.....Tennessee -1.5 for the game

Good Luck and Happy 2008 to all!!!!

Hawkeye - I tried to help you yesterday with Cal over Afir Force.  My point in that post was not the fact you messed up on BYU/Air Force score - but your logic was very flawed.  You were basically saying since X beat Y, and since Y beat Z, then X should beat Z.  I suggest to you again that is not the way to handicap football, especially college.  I see you gfalling into another trap today - nobody has played for a long time at this point.  Look at the offenses and defenses and cap those matchup's, look at their health, their QB play, running game, ability to stop the run - those are the things I suggest you start looking at.  I cvan tell you are pretty new at thgis, but I see you bet a lot of games so I am trying to help uyou improve ytpour winning percentage.  I went 4-1 yesterday for +3200, cashing Cal, Auburn, OK State, the Pisatons, and losing on Orlando by a basket.  We plan to keep it rolling today and ended '07 up well over six figiures.  Yesterday I suggested to you to take Cal or the Over, both winners.  Today I am suggesting take Tennesee here or the Under hawkeye if you must play this game.  If I do anything it will probably be a small 2-3 unit play on the Under.

Quote Originally Posted by Coloneljim:

C-SHARP -- This game looks very similiar to last years penn st- tenn match-up . tennessee came in the favorite in that one and layed an egg. I'm hoping the same thing happens again.

Wisconsin is a tough, fast and physical team. You just can't pass up taking the 2 or 3 points here.

GOOD LUCK BRO

Col Jim, I see you have been on a losding streak latelky.  let me help you here bud - take Tennessee or the Under.  Who cares what starters are returning, that means nothing for today.   I haven;'t seen anyone comparing the offenses vs. defenses.  or mention P.J. Hill's leg health.  Or the fact Ainge should pick apart a very inexperienced badger secondary.  Or the big edge in coaching Tennessee has since this is only Bielema's second season.  Come on guys these are the things to look at and the things we should be seeing more of in these posts.  Lets get some good dialogure going about actual capping data like this, instead of these stats and trends that we can get anywhere on the net and frankly don't mean a thing.

When you look at the offense vs. defense matchup in this game I come up with a dead even game, this is a real sharp line.  As I mentioned earlier if I do anything on this game it will be the Under. I see 54-57 points scored, so the total is pretty sharp as well on this one.  I am coming up with around 28-28 for a final score, so as long as there is no OT, I think the Under is going to hit.

Guys I am offering my vast experience in doing this semi-professionally for decades, to help you guys with your picks.  Don't let me talk you out of the pick, take a look at the process I am rcecommending.  The reasoning behind some of the posted plays are really pretty irrelevant, like all the people taking Air Force yetsreday because of conference vs. conference records or because of some bowl record or x number of starters coming back, blah blah blah. Or some other meaningless stat or trend.  Focus on today's matchup and the people on the roster, the styles of play, the injuries, running offfenses and defenses, big play ability, penalties, turnovers, weather, etc.  The few people on this forum who actually cap games like that, if you watch - we are the one's consistently winning.  Also, never go against your gut.  And make sure your picks pass the 80/20 rule.  Ask yourself and be very honest, do you see an 80% chance, at least, that your pick will come through.  If you cannot honestly feel that strongly then change your pick or lay off.  Like today - you really see Wisconsin beating Tennsesse 8 out of 10 times?  No way, this game could easily go Tennessee's way, that is more like a 5-5 split, and that is not good enough for me to lay cash on a side play.  I did not feel that way about my Cal, OK State, and Auburn winners yesterday.  They all passed the 80/20 rule.  This has helped me greatly over the years and I feel it will help the rest of you as well.  GL all and I appreciate the compliments this week from those who played some of my picks.

thanks obes much better

Also a good point.  This is part of why I decided to do a totals play.