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Rutgers at South Florida (11/03/2010)

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Posted: #51
well about 72% of bets placed in the last 4 hours have been on Rutgers so the public is clearly gobbling up the 10 points.

I might have to grab this before it goes back to 10.5


 
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Posted: #52

Quote Originally Posted by CollegeSharp:

40% - 70% chance of thunderstorms the entire game... Raymond James Stadium is grass field.

FOrgot that this one is right here at Raymond James. I am 20 miles away. Sunny and nice here right now.

 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by CollegeSharp:

40% - 70% chance of thunderstorms the entire game... Raymond James Stadium is grass field.


where did you see this? This is what I found:
MIDDLESEX-
353 PM EDT WED NOV 3 2010

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

and on weather.com there 0% chance of precipitation till 11pm.

doesn't seem the rain gets there in time to have any effect on the game

 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by dalupus:



where did you see this? This is what I found:
MIDDLESEX-
353 PM EDT WED NOV 3 2010

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

and on weather.com there 0% chance of precipitation till 11pm.

doesn't seem the rain gets there in time to have any effect on the game



sorry I am stupid.  this is in florida not rutgers
 
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Posted: #55
Opened at 42 and Now 44.5 on my book... Hmmmmmm
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by rekamyenoM:

Opened at 42 and Now 44.5 on my book... Hmmmmmm


yeah I am not sold on the under in this one.  

I like usf -10 much better and i may tease -3 over 36.5 although teasing is against my better judgement.
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by RGWINS1ST:

i have been looking at doing a tease for this game with a twist....rutgers +16 over 39.....usf-4 over 39..... straight bet under 43......say i wager 1 unit(unit=$100) on each bet (no juice on 6pt. teaser...local book)....its true i am basically risking losing 2 of the 3 bets so worst case is i lose $110 for the straight bet and push or win both on teasers but best case scenario is i hit both teasers and the under bet(only 4 pt. middle)....and yes it would be best just to place straight bet,which i normally do but was just curious what the thought of forum was on this....be honest if it is terrible idea:if i have missed figured:say so,all comments and opinions welcome as always GL
read your post....(straight bet under) then tease the uner as well
 
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Posted: #58
*under
 
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Posted: #59

 NO RAIN I LIVE HERE

https://www.weather.com/outlook/events/college-football/weather/33607?eventid=346949

 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by RGWINS1ST:

i have been looking at doing a tease for this game with a twist....rutgers +16 over 39.....usf-4 over 39..... straight bet under 43......say i wager 1 unit(unit=$100) on each bet (no juice on 6pt. teaser...local book)....its true i am basically risking losing 2 of the 3 bets so worst case is i lose $110 for the straight bet and push or win both on teasers but best case scenario is i hit both teasers and the under bet(only 4 pt. middle)....and yes it would be best just to place straight bet,which i normally do but was just curious what the thought of forum was on this....be honest if it is terrible idea:if i have missed figured:say so,all comments and opinions welcome as always GL


you also have to hit that 12 pt middle in the spread or you lose money.   12 pts isn't much in college. 
 
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Posted: #61

 NO RAIN I LIVE HERE

   Radar Weather as well

https://www.weather.com/outlook/events/sports/map/interactive/33607

 
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Posted: #62

rekamyenoM has been lighting himself on fire for years now....

 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by 12albert:

read your post....(straight bet under) then tease the uner as well


and if the game goes over 49 he loses all 3?
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by KongKiller:

rekamyenoM has been lighting himself on fire for years now....

 
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Posted: #65
Got killed on last nights under play so keep that in mind.. 
 
All records are ATS
S. FLORIDA
2010 =  3-4 Overall - AVG Total =38.3/1-2 HOME - AVG Total= 38.7
NON-SATURDAY Games UNDER is 9-6 - AVG Total = 48.7
8-10 AS CONF HFAV AVG Total =  50.4
VS RUTGERS 2-3 (OVER 3-2) AVG Total = 52.6
11-8 as NOV FAV - AVG Total = 50.5
9-2 as  7.5-10PT FAV - AVG Total = 54.3
6-5 AS 10.5-15 PT FAV - AVG Total = 55.0
 
RUTGERS
2010 =  1-5  Overall - AVG Total = 41.7/0-2 AWAY - AVG Total = 47.5
11-7-1 in NON SATURDAY GAMES/OVER is 9-6 - AVG Total = 46.9
16-23-1 as NOV DOG - AVG NOV Total = 55.0
OVER 15-10 in NOV GAMES - AVG Total = 55.0
8-3 AS 7.5-10 PT DOG
6-8 AS 10.5-15 PT DOG
24-27-1 AS CONF ADOG
 
Nothing spectacular here from ATS perspective. 
Liking the OVER here, a lot of 50's above(except for this year but most over posted total)
The number for this game is around 53.
 
In series only played under this total 1 time in 5 games. Wednesday is a historically good OVER day 59%
 
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Posted: #66

     Taking the Scarlet Knights here because my stats & power ratings say that 10 points is a bit too much for South Fla., and that in the last 3 seasons, Rutgers has went 6-1 (86 %) as road dogs.

RUTGERS   +  10

 
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Posted: #67
I have no idea how the oddsmakers justify this line, but without any analysis I'm putting a small play on SF.  With a lot of these games, pure analysis does nothing towards gaining an advantage, for we often miss the forest for the tree.  In this case, I'm going up against the line -- pure and simple.  It's too skewed.  I can live with such a loss should I lose.  But more often than not, I'm on the right side.  Anyway, for what it's worth you've read my two cents.  GL.
 
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Posted: #68
thanks for ur input albert but dalupus is right if i straight bet under and then tease under i have a chance to lose all my bets.....i guess it would just be easier to stick with my straight bets rather than try to middle game on pts. and total.....and like u said dalupus, 12 pts is not a lot in college....it would have better chance in pro football....oh well just wanted to throw that out there     thanks for thoughts and as always GL
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by dalupus:



where did you see this? This is what I found:
MIDDLESEX-
353 PM EDT WED NOV 3 2010

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

and on weather.com there 0% chance of precipitation till 11pm.

doesn't seem the rain gets there in time to have any effect on the game


From Weather.com

 
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Posted: #70
Just looked again... now they have 10% chance at 6pm, 40% at 7, 35% at 8, 10% at 9.... weather.com
 
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Posted: #71
Last nights Under slammed me as well and a few others.I'm going with Rutgers tonight and the points.My initial feel was with them and I'll stick with it.
 
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Posted: #72
I have a problem taking a 1-6 ATS team but since ive been known to be simple I guess Rutgers and ov. Ill be furious in the morning!!!!!
 
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Posted: #73
I did the math and I don't see how anyone can justify taking the over in this game.  Neither team can score.  The only time they have scored were against atrocious defenses or opportunistic moments granted to them from the gods.
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by Hawaiianguy:

I am a long time reader of this forum but a new poster. Generally a dime player so don't bet a lot of games, just ones that through research seem a good bet, not always right of course and so far this year I have won 10 and lost 8 so a lot risked to make $120.00. I find 2 things fascinating about these threads. One is the posters who immediately put up "under" or "Rutgers" without even a single bit of reasoning, let alone hyperbole to go with their picks. I can't figure out why people do this, if you have a pick, say why, even if your logic is flawed, at least it lends some legitimacy to your post. The second item is the vast amount of information regarding the spreads, especially when they're below 4. Everyone buying down a 1/2 point here and there and have you ever really looked at how often the spread comes into play? It's not nearly as much as you'd think and you're really better off simply going with the team you think will win and betting them. Again, I'm not talking about huge spreads, just in the 4 to 6 range, do some research and you'll see they don't matter that often, especially in the Thursday night ESPN game with a home dog. 
Ok so whats your pick
 
 
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Posted: #75

If you have to touch this game, take SF and the Under.  If you're somewhat smart, just take SF.  If you're more than smart, wait for Sat.  If you're brilliant, don't gamble.

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