I think this is another really tough game to cap, but I am going to go with the public on this one...Oklahoma State -2.5. These are two very similar teams by their numbers and style of play. I just like the fact that Oklahoma State performed very well in their biggest games of the year in the much better conference. Oregon was very strong towards the end of the year, but OK State hung in their punch for punch with Texas, only lost by 20 to Oklahoma (which in retrospect was not that bad), and beat Mizzou in Missouri when they were number 3 team in the country. They did get shalacked by Texas Tech, but there was really only bad performance of the year. I think this team will come in fired up and feel like they have alot to prove. This one of the biggest bowl games in years for this program that isn't typically known as a football school and often gets lost in the mix with the likes of Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech etc. Their numbers are pretty even, but I think that OSU's defensive numbers are much more impressive, considering that they have played Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Missouri, and Houston. I am going to ride the better D IMO and go with OK State (buying the hook)
Oklahoma State -2.5
I'm a Big 12/OU fan but let's hold off on proclaiming who the best conf is until after these games.....There is no doubt that the Big 12 boasts the best offenses in the country by far....But the jury is still out on the Ds....We know they're not great so the question is can the offenses win the day.....
OSU versus Oregon and OU versus Florida will tell the story....If OU is truly a great team their defense will rise to the occasion and the offense will carry the day....Same with Okie State....
Note: If Florida can't get pressure on Bradford and Oregon can't get it on Robinson..... it's all over....
Oregon is perennially overrated, Belotti is a joke and so is their defense. The Pac 10 is weak this year and Oregon's last 2 games against Arizona and Oregon State without Rogers were joke teams as well so don't read into that BS...Dont buy into the Chip Kelly hype either, who couldn't score 50 points on Wazzu and Houston???
How do you figure the public is all over OK when the spread has moved down to 1? pay attention, son, and learn what that really means. it means everyone has jumped on Oregon, if not taken the ML straight up.
I think OK State is the much better squad here.
OK ST and the UNDER
Remember today's early game Rutgers came into the game scoring a lot of points to and that game went UNDER. Don't base your play on this guy...he's no better than any of us...he's a broadcaster not a capper.
Vegaskid76 - called reverse line movement.... the reason it had went to -4 was because all early money came in on Okl.St... over 90%. This line settled at just over 70% Okl.St. Yet line still going down. Or BIG $$ coming in on Oregon from the Sharps. Either way... I'm on Oregon! Good Luck with your Oklahoma State pick. Oh, and welcome to Covers... I see you became a member today. Maybe you can add something to this site... we'll give you a pass on your first couple of posts. Sharp
Vegaskid76
So what causes reverse line movement when the aim of most bookmakers is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors. Reverse line movement takes place when more money is bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money. In this instance a large sum of bets is on OK State but now OK State is getting points even with 70% of the action. Sharp money is on Oregon!
Now I need to keep on eye on this line before I make my final play.
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