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Mississippi at Texas Tech (01/02/2009)

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Posted: #76
Early lean on Ole Miss, but Houston Nutts bowl record is a concern...
 
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Posted: #77
Houston Nutts bowl record is 2 wins and 6 loses.
 
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Posted: #78
major reverse line movement in this game which really makes me think the line started at -7 with the public 85% on t tech and now its down to 4 somthing to think about 
 
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Posted: #79
TT takes this 1 : 45 - 21!
 
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Posted: #80
Wasn't Crabtree and Harrell injured for game with Baylor?

How did Penn State do against the team that beat USC?

What did that matter? But beating FLA by one is the hinge on nearly everyone going with Ole Miss on this thread.

Doesn't Vegas know people will start jumping on Ole Miss if they lower the line?

What is the ranking of the pass defense of Ole Miss?

#11

IN THE SEC!

(60 nationally)

What is the ranking of the pass offense of Texas Tech?

#1, in the country and conference.

This is going to be a cover by TT.

It might be very possibly by 30.

TT -4.5 & UNDER.
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by smokin376:

stop over analyzing this game fellas......Thers nothing fishy about the line...the line is set that way because tech hasnt played in a while and they might come out rusty on their opening drive....(i doubt it), but maybe....
 
LAY THE DOUGH ON FIRST HALF AND GAME WITH TECH...
 
you guys over analyze way too much on talented teams....who gives a shit if this team beat florida on an off day...maybe florida was at the bar late the night before and had a hangover when they played....who knows....we will never know that...but i do know this....tech will ROLL in this game by 14+

Very well said....I'm with you.

 
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Posted: #82

Vegas doesn't give money away.  There is a reason they want you to take TT.  My first 70+ game of the New Year (when public hits 70% on a team, go the other way)

MISSISSIPPI +4

 
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Posted: #83
Lets look at this years trends:

Public heavy on Mizzou - ATS LOSS
Public HEAVY on BC - SU LOSS
Public heavy on Ok. St. - SU LOSS
Public heavy on TT - ?????

 
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Posted: #84
Pay attention to the unders today..............I'm just saying that they went 4-1 yesterday and 4-1 on New Years's Eve.......even Oregon and OSU stayed under the night before.......These matchups in the bowls aren't against conference foes that these powerful offenses see all the time and take advantage of middle of the road teams and pile on!!!  These are teams that have never or rarely played each other and are usually evenly matched.  Not to mention the layoffs that keep getting stretched out more and more every year!!!  I would expect the unders to go at least 2-1 today........And I believe this game starts it off......now which of the other two games today stay under?
 
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Posted: #85
Mississippi's last four games: Two shut-outs and a total of 20 points scored against in the other two games.  Under for a small play also.
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by mize_um:

Lets look at this years trends:

Public heavy on Mizzou - ATS LOSS
Public HEAVY on BC - SU LOSS
Public heavy on Ok. St. - SU LOSS
Public heavy on TT - ?????

The public isn't all over TT. This line opened at -7 TT ... The fact that its at -4 now ... means the public is all over Ole Miss

 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by hambone87:

Wasn't Crabtree and Harrell injured for game with Baylor?

How did Penn State do against the team that beat USC?

What did that matter? But beating FLA by one is the hinge on nearly everyone going with Ole Miss on this thread.

Doesn't Vegas know people will start jumping on Ole Miss if they lower the line?

What is the ranking of the pass defense of Ole Miss?

#11

IN THE SEC!

(60 nationally)

What is the ranking of the pass offense of Texas Tech?

#1, in the country and conference.

This is going to be a cover by TT.

It might be very possibly by 30.

TT -4.5 & UNDER.

In the Baylor game Harrell had 3 fingers smashed, broken in 9 places....Went into half time, had them taped together and went out and brought Tech back against a dangerous Robert Griffin led Baylor offense....Personally I think Harrell is a prick but he's one helluva QB......Can anybody imagine how much pain he must have been in.....Crabtree's well......Rebels lost to Vandy and South Carolina??? Give me a break....Miss will be trying to play catch up all day....Harrell has something to prove after his Heisman snub....

Tech by 14 easy......

 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by CollegeSharp:

This will be a shoot!  But I cannot help thinking that that Ole Miss D will come up with just enough stops to win this game or maybe lose on the final drive by like 1-4 points.  Early lean says Ole Miss.  Sharp 

Gotta agree with you.  Heavy Public Favortism on Tech, still remembering the Texas game.   I am taking Ole Miss

 
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Posted: #89
Texas Tech -4
Under 66
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by UFG8rAlum:

The public isn't all over TT. This line opened at -7 TT ... The fact that its at -4 now ... means the public is all over Ole Miss

UFG, that isn't necessarily true in all cases. See my lame try at an examlpe below. For this example will use the same two teams.
 
If the line opened at Tech -7 and 1000 people bet $100 each that would mean that there was $100,000 dollars being bet on Texas Tech to win. 
 
Now, if 70 people bet $100 each and 10 people (sharps) bet $1000 each that would mean there is $170,00 being bet on Ole Miss.
 
So, the greater majority of the public is taking Texas Tech but more money is being placed Ole Miss the line will drop so the money is even.
 
Obvsiouly the actual number of bettors is much more and the gap is greater than 30 people...lol This is just an example.
 
Hope that helps.
 
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Posted: #91
                     Ole Miss   Texas Tech
 
Moneyline     37%            63%
Spread 18% 82%
 
The percentages above are for the wagers Logans is taking on this game. 82% of the bets they have taken are for Texas Tech. Providing they are honest...lol
 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by smokin376:

stop over analyzing this game fellas......Thers nothing fishy about the line...the line is set that way because tech hasnt played in a while and they might come out rusty on their opening drive....(i doubt it), but maybe....
 
LAY THE DOUGH ON FIRST HALF AND GAME WITH TECH...
 
you guys over analyze way too much on talented teams....who gives a shit if this team beat florida on an off day...maybe florida was at the bar late the night before and had a hangover when they played....who knows....we will never know that...but i do know this....tech will ROLL in this game by 14+

Ok then.......how about this simple little tid bit......Miss 6-0 last six bowls ATS.......T Tech hasn't covered in over 5 years......and yes they had awesome offenses that were in the top 10 of the country in every one of the ATS loses........You know......they might not be that good......but then again......I could be wrong......  GL to you in taking the most publicly sided bet of the bowl season without giving any though to it..........Vegas and your local books love that......

 
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Posted: #93
I see what you're trying to say FPronk ... I;m liking the under a lot, but I still think TT is going to win.  That hurts because I am a SEC guy.
 
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Posted: #94
So Fpronk if Vegas is trying to even things out wouldn't that favor Texas? This line movement tells me to take Texas. 
 
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Posted: #95
I meant 700 and 100 not 70 and 10 sorry.
 
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Posted: #96

Texas Tech playing in front of a home crowd, have a head coach who when given time can out gameplan any defense...A solid offensive line and a a decent pass rush to contain any team that tries to play from behind...

Ole Miss has had a good stretch run, they have a great DT, DE and OT...However, I don't see a QB who can lead them...I don't see an elite WR to threaten the secondary...I don't see a RB who can consistantly move the chains...They will try to slow it down and grind away at the clock,...

Taking both of these into consideration, I teased it to TT +2.5 and Under 72.5...Biggest play of the weekend

 
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Posted: #97
Fpronk did you think that explanation up all by yourself.Pretty good. Take  Ol Miss today regardless they may winSU with the crab hurtin
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by Fpronk:

UFG, that isn't necessarily true in all cases. See my lame try at an examlpe below. For this example will use the same two teams.
 
If the line opened at Tech -7 and 1000 people bet $100 each that would mean that there was $100,000 dollars being bet on Texas Tech to win. 
 
Now, if 70 people bet $100 each and 10 people (sharps) bet $1000 each that would mean there is $170,00 being bet on Ole Miss.
 
So, the greater majority of the public is taking Texas Tech but more money is being placed Ole Miss the line will drop so the money is even.
 
Obvsiouly the actual number of bettors is much more and the gap is greater than 30 people...lol This is just an example.
 
Hope that helps.

 

I am only getting $17,000 on your numbers here bro! 70 @100 is 7000 and 10 @ 1000 is 10,000, so 7000 plus 10000 is not 170,000, but instead 17,000.

 

 
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Posted: #99
These teams are very close in my opinion.  Houston Nutt has a knack for getting teams up for big games.  SEC has a good track record against the Big XII in Cotton bowls in recent memory.  Tech on grass 0-4 ATS this year.  Crabtree will play but hobbled.  I am probably taking the +4 but may look ML Miss...
 
Tech is a good regular season team with a gimicky offense.  It helps that Miss has had a month to prepare.  Miss is playing great.  I think this should be a pick'em game.. 
 
Best of Luck
 
 
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Posted: #100
Vegas is making Texas Tech look even better to you if that who you think will win. Most bettors say, "wow, this is too easy...texas tech will roll ole miss...I  would have given -7 but -4.5 is too good to pass up."
 
The fact is some large money that came in on Ole Miss and that is what moved the line. There is also a great deal of gamblers that are familiar with Reverse Line Movement who will also bet that side and usually for a little more than they would have normally bet. Same thing happened in Oregon/Ok State game....It doesnt guarantee a winner but I tend to follow this move.
 
IMO it would not be surprise if the line goes back up to 5 or 5.5 before kick off.
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